BETFRED BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2013

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The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of four grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2013 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 4th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 5 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham, last 3 winners of this all skipped Cheltenham.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-1-2

7yo: 2-5-11

8yo: 2-4-19

9yo: 1-2-15

10yo: 3-1-13

11yo+: 2-1-11

12yo+: 0-1-3

The last 7 winners were aged 7 to 10, 4 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase.

All 5 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.



Gender

The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd.



Breeding

French Bred: 4-8-23

Irish Bred: 4-4-32

British Bred: 2-3-17

German Bred: 0-0-2

No very strong trend on breeding.



Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)

9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts

10 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases

9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase

5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1

7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season

Only 1 of past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not vital.



Other races

Argento Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 161 (2-0-3)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 51531 (2-0-5)

Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 41 (1-0-2)

Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 25 (0-1-2)

Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 5124123315 (3-3-10)

Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup: 42P312FF52 (1-4-10) 8 of these 10 were sent off favourite

5 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P5U26 (last 3 winners bypassed Cheltenham)

4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2224

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 716

3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 333

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 13



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).

Oliver McKiernan (1-0-2) has trained Follow The Plan to finish 3rd & 1st in past 2 renewals.

Irish-trained runners (1-0-8) in 2002 & 2012, both winners had finished 4th in Irish Hennessy that season.



Price

Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2003

It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously)

· Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)

· Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup

· Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts

· Won over 3M+

· Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)

· Unplaced in Gold Cup or bypassed Cheltenham

· Finished the first 4 in King George this season

· Finished in first 3 in Argento, Charlie Hall and/or Hennessy Gold Cup

· Favourite has a poor record