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    Info JOHN SMITH'S FOXHUNTERS CHASE TRENDS 2013

    The John Smith’s Foxhunters Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 4th April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. Horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have not necessarily repeated the feat here.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    7yo: 0-2-10

    8yo: 0-0-16

    9yo: 2-4-41

    10yo: 2-4-56

    11yo: 4-6-58

    12yo: 2-2-43

    13yo+: 0-2-26

    8 of 10 winners were aged 9 to 11, though they have accounted for 62% of total runners.

    The 2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated 140+ over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated 150+ over fences).

    Horses aged 8 or younger or 13+ have gained no wins and just 4 places from 52 runners.



    Breeding

    British Bred: 4-5-58

    Irish Bred: 3-8-141

    French Bred: 3-7-45

    Other: 0-0-6

    Irish bred runners have accounted for 56.4% of the total runners but have only won 3 of the last 10 renewals. French & British bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from just 41.2% of total runners.



    Recent/Past Form

    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (2 exceptions won on penultimate start)

    7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start

    8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs

    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)

    9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences under rules (exception Katarino had not run over fences that season but won 2 point to points)

    9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)

    8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)

    10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase

    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

    7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) previously won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock



    Cheltenham Festival

    Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: 6U (0-0-2)

    3 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU6

    You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.

    Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.



    Other Races

    Previous year's winner (Cloudy Lane): 51U2U7 (1-1-6)

    Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Cottage Oak): U3U11F (2-1-6)

    BJP Insurance Brokers Hunters' Chase winner (Offshore Account): 1FU (1-0-3)

    Ubique Challenge Cup Hunters' Chase winner (Bold Addition): 3F (0-1-2)

    Queen Mother Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 44F (0-0-3)

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11



    Racing Tactics

    9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race

    Only Katarino in 2005 won after being held up. Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.



    Trainers

    Donald McCain (1-0-2) trained Cloudy Lane to win it last year and is the only trainer with a representative in this year’s race to have won the race in past 10 years.

    Paul Nicholls (0-1-11) last won this in 2002 and in past 10 years, he has seen 6 of his 11 runners complete the course and 5 of those 6 finish in the first 5 but only one get placed.

    Willie Mullins (0-1-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd and 8th in past 2 runnings while Tracey Bailey trained Offshore Account to finish 3rd and unseat in past 2 runnings, both horses are entered again this year.

    Irish trained runners (0-5-45) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 45 runners. They have been responsible for 5 favourites in that time.



    Price

    9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1

    In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.

    Favourites (3-2-12) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.83. In 5 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    · Aged 9 to 11 (or aged 12 & previously won or placed in a class 1 chase)

    · French & British bred runners favoured

    · Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days

    · Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start

    · Won on 1 of last 2 starts

    · Won 2 or more chases under rules

    · Won over 2M 4F+

    · Won a class 3 or better chase

    · Won 1 or 2 chases this season

    · Previously un in 4 or fewer hunter chases (winning no more than 1)

    · Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock

    · Won the Walrus Hunter Chase

    · Tends to race prominently

    · Trained in Great Britain

    · Priced between 3/1 and 8/1

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (3rd April 2013)  


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