PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP TRENDS 2013

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Strangely before 1999 there was no grade 1 chase for Gold Cup horses at Punchestown but now the Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting for many race fans. The race, which takes place on Wednesday 24th April, is run over 3M 1F and looks one of the most open renewals in years.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-0-1

7yo: 3-1-11

8yo: 4-5-24

9yo: 1-5-19

10yo: 1-3-15

11yo+: 0-2-13

Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-6-36

Horses aged 9 or older: 2-10-47

8 of last 9 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8.



Breeding

Irish bred: 5-15-61

French bred: 4-1-16

British bred: 1-0-5

German bred: 0-0-1

Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they have represented 75.6% of the total runners.

French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from 19.3% of the total runners.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (both exceptions down the field in Cheltenham Gold Cup & Ryanair)

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 156+ in last 2 runs

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September

9 of 10 winners had won that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 9 to 15 times over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)

6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start while 2 others put in solid efforts in grade 1 chases here)



Other races

Aintree Bowl winner (First Lieutenant): 1142 (2-1-4)

Clonmel Oil winner (Sizing Europe): 13U (1-1-3)

King George winner (Long Run): 1 (1-0-1)

Kinloch Brae winner (Quito De La Roque): 3716 (1-0-4)

Irish Hennessy winner (Sir Des Champs): 228P3 (0-3-5)

JNWine Champion Chase winner (Kauto Stone): 8P (0-0-2)

Red Mills Chase winner (Chicago Grey): 57U4 (0-0-4)

Previous year's Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 5PPP (0-0-4)

Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 215514P (2-1-7)

Both King George winners to run in this were victorious (Kicking King in 2005 & Florida Pearl in 2002)

7 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P411838

4 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 3115

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 732

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 273

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl last time, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 25

2 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 17

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1



Trainers

Mouse Morris (2-1-5) and Paul Nicholls (2-0-5) have both trained the winner twice since 2006.

Oliver McKiernan (1-1-3) has trained Follow The Plan to finish 1st in 2010 and 2nd last year.

Philip Hobbs (1-0-2) trained Planet Of Sound to win this in 2010.

Willie Mullins (0-5-11) has won the race just once (in 2002 with Florida Pearl). 5 of his 11 runners in past 10 runnings have made the places.

Noel Meade (0-1-5) has never won this race, best he’s managed is a second from 5 runners.

Nicky Henderson (0-0-2) has saddled 3 runners in this since 2000, all unplaced including a 6/4 favourite in 2000 and a 5/1 third favourite last year.

British-based trainers (3-1-21) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 1 place from 19 runners (8 of those 19 were sent off shorter than 5/1 and all 8 were unplaced including the last 2 favourites).



Price

6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

There have been shocks in past 3 years with the winners going off 14/1, 20/1 & 20/1 while the previous 7 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.

Favourites (6-2-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.30.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 6 to 8

· French bred

· Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham)

· Ran in past 40 days

· Run in 3 to 7 chases this season (winning 1 to 4)

· Run 9 to 15 times over fences in their career

· Second or third season chaser

· Won over 2M 7F+

· Won a grade 1 chase (2nd or 3rd at the very least)

· Previous course winner (or having first start here)

· Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and/or Aintree Bowl

· Won that season’s King George

· Finished in first 5 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy and/or John Durkan Memorial

· Trained in Ireland (especially by Mouse Morris) or by Paul Nicholls/Philip Hobbs

· Sent off favourite