EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2013

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The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 1st June. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:



Age

Race for 3yos



Breeding

Irish bred: 5-10-68

British bred: 4-7-52

American bred: 1-3-17

German bred: 0-0-2

French bred: 0-0-5

10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+

9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner

3 of 10 winners by a sire that'd won or placed in the 2000 Guineas

5 of 10 winners by a sire who'd finished in the first 2 in the King George

9 of 10 winners were born before 15th March (exception born on 6th April)

Progeny of Montjeu (4-2-20) have won 4 of the last 8 renewals while progeny of Galileo (1-3-16) have won the race just once from 16 representatives.



Dosage Profile

Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.09

Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.21



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts

10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn't run in a group 1 as a juvenile)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)

9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in

5 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (4 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of those 9 at a group 1 track)

The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively 37 previous starts before winning the race. In those 37 starts they had finished outside the first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as 2yo.



2yo Form

Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingbarns): 061161 (3-0-6)

Dewhurst winner (Dawn Approach): 11 (2-0-2)

Beresford Stakes winner (Battle Of Marengo): 30201 (1-2-5)

National Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 031 (1-1-3)

Darley EBF Maiden winner (Dibayani): 1 (1-0-1)

1M Leopardstown Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Nevis): 1 (1-0-1)

Tyros Stakes winner (Grafelli): 14 (1-0-2)

Futurity Stakes winner (First Cornerstone): 0P1 (1-0-3)

Vintage Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 107 (1-0-3)

Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Morandi): 0926 (0-1-4)

Anglesey Stakes winner (Grafelli): 0 (0-0-1)

Solario Stakes winner (Fantastic Moon): 5 (0-0-1)

Royal Lodge Stakes winner (Steeler): 70 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh in July, finishing 14



3yo Form

Dante Stakes winner (): 911012036 (3-2-9)

2000 Guineas winner (): 011 (2-0-3)

Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th from the English 2000 Guineas: 47011045 (2-0-8)

Dee Stakes winners (): 150803 (1-1-6)

Prix Greffulhe winner (): 51 (1-0-2)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (): 34303256 (0-4-8)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (): 040936702 (0-2-9)

Ballysax Stakes winner (Battle Of Marengo): 52 (0-1-2)

Chester Vase winner (): 660545025 (0-1-9)

Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial winner (Fort Know): 0 (0-0-1)

Prix Francois Mathet winner (): 7 (0-0-1)

Craven Stakes winner (Toronado): 5 (0-0-1)

Galinule Stakes winner (): 04 (0-0-2)

Newmarket Stakes winner (): 800 (0-0-3)

Fairway Stakes winner (): 844 (0-0-3)

Cocket Hat Stakes winner (): 703 (0-0-3)

Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Sugar Boy): 0400 (0-0-4)

4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112

4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2211



Trainers

British-trained runners: 6-9-89

Irish-trained runners: 3-10-48

French-trained runners: 1-1-7

Michael Stoute (3-2-9) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years and his first strings have a record that reads 110212 (3-2-6).

Aidan O’Brien (1-8-41) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but went 9 years without a win before Camelot won it for him last year.

John Oxx (1-1-2) & Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher.

Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2), Michael Bell (1-0-3) and Andre Fabre (1-0-3) are the 4 other trainers to have won the race in the past 10 years.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-6) gained his only win in the race with Lammtarra in 1995, 3 of his 6 runners since 2003 have been placed.

John Gosden (0-0-7) last won this with Benny The Dip in 1997 but his last 7 runners have all been unplaced.

Pour Moi in 2011 became first French-trained winner since 1976. In the past 50 years there have been 4 French-trained winners. 3 of the 4 ran in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as 2yos and all 4 had either won the Prix Gruffelhe or finished in first 4 in Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

The other 3 winners all tracked the leader(s).



Price

10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.

Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.12 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+

· Montjeu’s progeny do particularly well

· Born before 15/03/2010

· Dosage index of around 1.09

· Centre of Distribution of around 0.21

· Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track

· Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)

· Run once or twice in 2013

· Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)

· Had run in the past 35 days

· Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)

· Posted an RPR of 118+ last time

· Previously won a group race

· Had won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)

· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo

· Won over 1M 2F as a 3yo (or won 2000 Guineas)

· Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo

· Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as a 3yo

· Priced 6/1 or below