EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2013

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The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 31st May. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in past 5 years with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008, Dancing Rain at 20/1 in 2011 & Was, last year at 20/1, all landing the prize.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 3yos



Breeding

British bred: 4-9-53

Irish bred: 4-7-52

American bred: 2-3-14

German bred: 0-0-2

UAE bred: 0-0-1

Japanese bred: 0-0-1

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (exception’s sire retired after 3 runs but was fancied for the Triple Crown races in USA



Dosage Profile

Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.24

Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.21



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 7 career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time

5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other was 6th in the 1000 Guineas)

9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

5 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

4 of 10 winners won or placed in listed or group race as a 2yo (4 exceptions were unbeaten as 2yos & other 2 ran only in maidens as a 2yo)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+



2yo Form

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Beautiful View/Olinda): 013 (1-1-3)

Foley Antiques EBF Fillies Maiden winner (Starbright): 1 (1-0-1)

Saxon-Gate.com EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Secret Gesture): 2 (0-1-1)

May Hill Stakes winner (Certify): 364 (0-1-3)

Fillies' Mile winner (Certify): 64 (0-0-2)

Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 16916040 (2-0-8)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Sky Lantern): 455 (0-0-3)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Harasiya): 505 (0-0-3)

Debutante Stakes winner (My Special J's): 455 (0-0-3)

Montrose Stakes winner (Pure Excellence): 6846 (0-0-4)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22



3yo Form

Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Banoffee): 015414 (2-0-6)

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner: 227166 (1-2-6)

Musidora Stakes winner: 3385163 (1-3-7)

Newbury Fillies Trial winner: 1043 (1-1-4)

Cheshire Oaks winner: 0610042 (1-1-7)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner: 5100007 (1-0-7)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)

Salsabil Stakes winner: 257 (0-1-3)

Lingfield Oaks trial winner: 7790294 (0-1-7)

1000 Guineas winner: 444 (0-0-3)

Blue Wind Stakes winner: 405 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

2 exceptions were 6th in 1000 Guineas and 3rd in Blue Wind Stakes on previous start



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-7-34) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 27.6% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-5-10.

Ed Dunlop (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010 from just 3 runners in past 10 renewals.

Henry Cecil (1-1-5) has won the race 8 times in the past 30 years, most recently with Light Shift in 2007.

William Haggas (1-0-2), Michael Bell, Ralph Beckett (1-0-4) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) have also saddled the winner in past 10 years.

John Gosden (0-2-6) has saddled a placed finisher in each of last 2 runnings.

David Elsworth (0-1-1), Hughie Morris (0-1-2), John Oxx (0-1-2), Jim Bolger (0-1-4) & Michael Stoute (0-1-5) have all been responsible for 1 placed finisher in last 10 years.

Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-9-41, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.



Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 3 of the last 5 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2003.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2
Dosage Index of around 1.24
Centre of Distribution of around 0.21
Had 1 or 2 runs this year
Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR last time
Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
Won over 1M+
Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo
Trained by Ed Dunlop, Aidan O’Brien or Henry Cecil