LENNOX STAKES TRENDS 2013

[ganjaman2]

The Bet365 Lennox Stakes is the big race on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 30th July. A group 2 run over 7 furlongs for horses age 3 or older and proven high class form over the specialist 7F trip seems key.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 5-5-31

4yo: 1-7-27

5yo: 4-4-23

6yo+: 0-3-22

4 of 5 three-year-old winners ran in English or French 2000 Guineas, exception won the Jersey Stakes and finished 3rd in Prix Jean Prat.

3 of 5 winners aged 4 or 5 had won at a previous Glorious Goodwood (1 Oak Tree, 1 Thoroughbred Stakes & 1 Lennox)

No horses aged older than 5 has ever won this race.



Gender

Fillies & mares (1-1-3) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 3 runners



Weight

There's a 7lb penalty for group 1 winners & 4lb penalty for group 2 winners since 1st November 2012.

Record of horses carrying a group 2 penalty: 0110769 (2-0-7)

The 2 winners to win under a penalty were Iffraaj (2006) who won the Park Stakes the previous year and was 2nd in July Cup on previous start and Nayyir in 2003, who had won previous year’s race and had finished in previous year’s group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest.



Recent Form

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 of 4 exceptions were 3yos unplaced in group 1's)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 103 or higher last time

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had run between 1 and 4 times that season (exception ran 5 times)

4 of 10 winners had won at Glorious Goodwood (5 exceptions were having first course start and other had finished 2nd in group 2 Vintage Stakes over CD)

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (1 exception was a 3yo having first try at the trip & other was beaten a short in a group 1 on only previous try at 7F)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race over 7F

8 of 10 winners had achieved an RPR of 110 over 7F (1 exception having first try at 7F & other was unbeaten in 2 runs at 7F, achieved RPR of 110 over the trip)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was listed winner who was twice 2nd in group 3's)

6 of 10 winners won a class 1 race that year (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in group 1 that year)

7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1 (only 1 winner had previously won a group 1 and only 1 winner had yet to contest a group 1)

5 of 5 winners aged 3 won their maiden as a 2yo at Newmarket or Newbury



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: 129803762 (1-3-9)

Highest placed finisher from Jersey Stakes: 730614681 (2-1-9)

Park Stakes winner (Libranno): 168 (1-0-3)

Cathedral Stakes winner (Professor): 52 (0-1-2)

Previous year's Supreme Stakes winner (Producer): 051 (0-1-3)

Criterion Stakes winner (Producer): 0842 (0-1-4)

Richard III Stakes winner (Producer): 06 (0-0-2)

Summer Mile winner (Aljamaheer): 00 (0-0-2)

Free Handicap winner (Garswood): 068 (0-0-3)

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 516

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 307

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Jersey Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Coventry Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Middle Park Stakes, finishing 92

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Diamond Jubilee Sprint, finishing 70

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Challenge Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Park Stakes, finishing 31



Trainers

Richard Hannon (2-3-10) has trained 2 of the last 5 winners and also saddled 3 more places in past 10 years, including the runner-up last year.

Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2004 & 2006.

Marcus Tregoning (1-0-4) has trained the winner twice since 2000.

Hughie Morrison (0-1-1) only runner in this was a close 2nd at 14/1 in 2008.

John Gosden (0-0-3) trained the inaugural winner of this in 2000 but his 3 runners in past 10 years have all been unplaced.



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

3 of 10 winners were held up in rear



Price

9 of 10 winners have come from the first 3 in the betting and priced 7/1 or below.

Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of last 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 1.75.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 3 and ran in a European 2000 Guineas or won Jersey Stakes or
Aged 4 or 5 that had won at Glorious Goodwood & finished in first 3 in group 1
Finished in first 3 last time or a 3yo unplaced in a group 1
Posted an RPR of 110+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
Previously won at Glorious Goodwood (or having first course start)
Previously won a class 1 race over 7F & achieved RPR of 110+ over the trip
Has won a group race (ideally also won a class 1 race in 2013)
Finished in first 3 in a group 1
Aged 3 that ran in French 2000 Guineas, Greenham and/or Jersey Stakes
Aged 4+ that ran in Diamond Jubilee, 2012 Park or Challenge Stakes
Trained by Richard Hannon, Saeed Bin Suroor or Marcus Tregoning
From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1)