my thoughts and bets for day 4 @ glourious goodwood 2/8/2013

**ganjaman2** · 1st August 2013

1.55 Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3)

Godolphin�s Charlie Appleby saddles an interesting recruit here to begin day four, in the four-year-old colt Masterstroke. He was a Listed winner in France over 1m4f before defeating Gatewood in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over a furlong further. He perhaps turned in his best performance in the Prix de l�Arc de Triomphe last year, when he finished a staying on third behind the front pair of Solemia and Orfevre. It will be interesting to see how he runs on his first outing for the Godolphin team in Newmarket, but if he turns in his best form then he is certainly worthy of consideration. The marginal preference is for John Gosden�s AIKEN who was last seen being narrowly beaten by Rite Of Passage in the Long Distance Cu at Ascot. He has been steadily progressive for the last two seasons, notching up a run of six consecutive victories, the last of which came in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly last June. He is comfortable from 1m4f to 2m looks to have a good chance of victory on his return to action.

2.30 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

The Listed success of MONTIRIDGE last month finally seemed to confirm the promise that his connections felt he had. The colt set the early fractions before kicking clear of his rivals to win by two lengths without much effort at all. Before that he had been narrowly beaten in the Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting and looks to be developing into a very smart colt. Stable jockey Richard Hughes has favoured him over stablemate Baltic Knight and this race should present an ideal opportunity to record a first Group success. One horse that could pose a danger is the Kevin Ryan-trained Glory Awaits who sprang something of a shock when finishing second in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. He subsequently took part in the St James� Palace where he finished fifth having set the early pace in the race. This drop back to Group 3 company should suit and it will be interesting to see how the Classic form compares to that of some of his more progressive rivals. The blinkers he wore on his last two starts have been removed and if he can produce his best form, he could well put it up to the favourite Montiridge.

3.05 Betfred Mile

The Betfred Mile is usually quite a rough race but even so it was one of those where the trends hold strong, The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you weren�t drawn high you couldn�t win as backed up by the fact that 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower. Laa Rayb overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 but on the whole it has always paid to follow the low numbers. However, with the way that stalls numbering has been changed those drawn on the far rail are now the lowest numbers so make sure you don�t get fooled.

Another pretty reliable trend is regarding the winners age as 4yos and 5yos have won six of the last 10 renewals. There was always the odd 6yo thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. However, to throw a spanner in the works a 3yo has now won 3 of the last 5 renewals so perhaps their 8lbs age allowance is starting to come into play? So based on the evidence available we should be able to take on the older horses with a fair degree of confidence.

Because of the affect of the draw the bookies now exactly how to price this race up and so it has generally always paid to follow those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. At the time of writing the top five in the betting are very closely matched, and with various bookmakers pricing each runner differently, there is no clear favourite, however it is Stirring Ballad who slightly heads proceedings. Dance and Dance, Wentworth, Cape Peron and Brendan Brackan make up the top five with six other rivals.

But it isn�t just the draw that influences the bookies; they also look to recent form so it will come as no surprise to learn that 9 of the last 10 winners came into the race having finished in the first six places last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn�t the race for them. Out of the top five in the betting Dance and Dance, Cape Peron, Brendan Brackan and Wentworth fit the bill, however I am happy to forgive Stirring Ballad�s final outing in which a luckless run, but had run well in Listed contests in his previous outings.

There are a couple of other things to consider. 6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 95 and 105 implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This may not be the strongest trend to look at this year as it only eliminates five of today�s line-up.

On a trainer front Mark Johnston leads the way having won the race 3 times in the last 4 years, he saddles Es Que Love, Galician and Windhoek in a bid to win the race for a fifth time. Next best is Roger Charlton who also has a strong record having won this race twice in the recent years, but he doesn�t have a runner this time around. Marcus Tregoning won this race two years ago with Boom And Boost and he saddles the six-year-old once again this year. Saeed Bin Suroor will also be bidding to train another winner of this race with Asatir and Sandagiyr.

Applying these recommendations to the field it is the William Knight-trained FIRE SHIP who comes out on top. He has been given a plum draw in seven and is reasonably well-fancied with the punters. He comes here at the peak of his powers having followed up a placed effort in France with a Listed success at Pontefract on Sunday. He only receives a 3lb penalty as a result of that success and given the form he showed at the weekend, he looks set for a big effort in this competitive heat.

Cape Peron makes the shortlist having been drawn in stall five and on the back of his run in the Britannia in which the ground was probably on the quick side for him. He finished fifth on that occasion but should be better for the experience of running in such a big field and receives a valuable weight allowance as a three-year-old. He remains unexposed having only had four career starts to date and looks to have a good chance again here.

The final one to make it onto the shortlist is the Richard Hannon-trained Wentworth. This colt was touted as a possible 2000 Guineas horse as a two-year-old and he has not had much good fortune in his three starts this year. He ran here in May over six furlongs and travelled strongly but his inability to find a gap meant he finished third. He ran well in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, staying on to finish fourth before the draw at Sandown meant that he could only finish third to Prince Of Johanne. He still looks a well-handicapped horse and although his draw is not ideal once again, he is worthy of a place on the shortlist.

3.40 Betfred King George Stakes (Group 2)

The now seven-year-old Masamah won this race two years ago and it is regarded as one of the fastest five furlong sprints around. He is now in the care of his third different trainer in Marco Botti and showed he was back to something like his best when winning a valuable five furlong handicap at Ascot. He enjoys bowling along in front and although his form has been in and out in the last couple of seasons, his run last time suggests he retains something of his old sparkle. A return to familiar surroundings should help the gelding and he looks to have a good chance back in Group company. Tickled Pink landed her second Group 3 success of the campaign last time when landing the Coral Charge at Sandown. The filly battled well for Tom Queally, as having been headed by Mince, she got back up to defeat her and the fast-finishing Kingsgate Native. She had the advantage of the rail that day, which is quite an advantage at Sandown, but her draw looks favourable again here in stall 1. She is always fast away from the stalls which should help her secure a good position and she is a must for the shortlist over the five furlongs trip. DUKE OF FIRENZE is marginally preferred to the rest, having won the Investec Dash on Derby day at Epsom. The colt did very well that day under Ryan Moore to find his way through a maze of horses and get his head in front on the line. He finished eighth in the Wokingham next time but the race never really worked out for him next time at Sandown, where the rattling fast ground may have hindered his chances. He can boast course and distance form having won here last May and back on good ground, his potent turn of foot could well make the difference.

4.15 Golf At Goodwood Nursery Handicap

Richard Fahey saddled the winner of this race last year with Jamesbo�s Girl and is represented by Regiment this time around. He seemed to need his debut outing, but came on a lot to win well at Catterick last time. His first try in a nursery was an encouraging one, finishing runner-up behind subsequent Doncaster winner Diamond Lady. This looks like a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, but Ryan Moore and Richard Fahey have started to build something of a formidable partnership, so this challenger can�t be ignored. Paul Cole�s Grecian sprang something of a surprise when winning on debut at Kempton and was somewhat unlucky not to retain his unbeaten record next time at Ascot. He has some high-profile entries in the Gimcrack and Mill Reef Stakes and looks a real contender here. YORKSHIRE RELISH is a gelding who may have slipped under the radar of most in his short career to date. Having been beaten on debut, he won a valuable selling race at York before finishing a staying on seventh in the Weatherbys Super Sprint. He was still showing signs of greenness on his third start but a return to six furlongs should suit and with more experience he looks a big player.

4.50 Betfred TV Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3)

Peter Chapple-Hyam has always thought quite a bit of Agent Allison since she won on debut by seven lengths at Pontefract. She finished second in the Albany next time out behind the ill-fated Newfangled before running down the field in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Her reappearance at Newbury in the Fred Darling was a good one, but she has failed sizzle in her two subsequent efforts in the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. It is probably fair to say that the ground may have been a little quick for her on her last two starts and the drop back to seven furlongs may also work in her favour. She remains a filly of some promise and shouldn�t be dismissed dropping in grade. WINNING EXPRESS is a filly who continues to run consistently well for her trainer Ed McMahon and landed a second Listed success at Warwick last time. She ended her juvenile campaign by finishing second to Rosdhu Queen in Group 1 company and returned to action this year in the Nell Gwyn, where she filled third place. She seemed to win very easily at Warwick last time and this race seems the next logical step for a good filly like her.

5.25 Betfred Mobile Lotto Stakes

There are some big stables represented in this day four finale and there are few bigger than the Warren Place stable of Lady Cecil. She saddles Retirement Plan who got off the mark in fine style at Doncaster last time. The colt is still entered in the St Leger which gives us an idea as to the regard in which he is held by connections and must be considered a potential player here. Mark Johnston�s Statutory was beaten narrowly on debut by a more experienced rival before turning over Brown Panther�s half-brother Bomber Thorn next time. This colt catches the eye on pedigree being a half-brother to four-times Group winner Papal Bull and with more improvement possible, he looks to have a good chance here. The marginal preference is for NORTHERN MEETING who gave Sir Michael Stoute a rare winner at Catterick in July. The manner of her success was dominant and he barely turned a hair, finishing five lengths clear of her rivals. She remains very lightly raced and looks a filly who if she continues her progress, would have a big chance here.