my thoughts and bets for day 5 @ glorious goodwood - 3/8/2013

[ganjaman2]

2.05 Robins Farm Racing Stewards’ Sprint Stakes


With eight of the last ten winners having carried 9st 5lb or less to victory, it allows me to eliminate some of the field straight away. In this case, it accounts for the first twelve horses on the race card. Of those left, Above Standard looks an interesting contender for the Michael Easterby who won the Stewards Cup two years ago with Hoof It. The team seem to have found some improvement in this gelding, having recorded victories on three of his last four starts. This progression has come at something of a cost, having been raised 23lb by the handicapper since October last year, but he remains interesting. They have secured the services of the in-form Daniel Tudhope and look to have a good chance of striking here. Piscean won over the course and distance here in May, defeating both Prodigality and Richard Hannon’s Wentworth. He has since run in mid-division in two races where he was slightly keen. He has four wins to his name here at Goodwood and if he is able to settle off a strong pace, he would be a player here. Richard Fahey has struck twice in this race in recent years with Johannes and his main charge this year looks to be PERSONAL TOUCH. The four-year-old won over seven furlongs at Doncaster at the beginning of the campaign before shaping as if a step back in trip would suit on his next two starts. He seems to have got his wish here and with former stable jockey Paul Hanagan onboard, he could be the one to lead his rivals home.



2.40 RAC Stakes


The Mark Johnston stable has saddled two winners of this race in the last decade and whilst they saddle three runners here, the preference is for Royal Skies. He ran well in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last time before he seemed to run out of stamina in the two mile contest. Before that, he had recorded two wide-margin successes at Pontefract and Musselburgh by distances of nine and six lengths respectively. He drops back in trip to 1m4f now and appears to have a good chance of success back in handicap company. The marginal preference is for HAVANA COOLER here who seems to have thrived over the winter for trainer Luca Cumani. He was runner-up on his only start at two but did well to get off the mark at Ripon on his reappearance. He went to Newmarket last time, where he saw the trip out really well, beating some good horses including Pether’s Moon who reopposes here. He was slow away at Newmarket last time which suggests there may still be more to come from him and with that in mind, he looks likely to follow up here.



3.15 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (Group 1)


It is probably fair to say that Sky Lantern is considered to be the best filly of her generation at the moment. Her victories in the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes marked her as a filly of the highest order. She lost nothing in defeat behind Elusive Kate in the Falmouth Stakes and intriguingly steps up in trip here. There would have to be doubts on pedigree as to whether she will be equally as effective at a mile and a quarter but she remains of interest, given the turn of foot she possesses. One filly coming up on the blindside somewhat is Sir Michael Stoute’s INTEGRAL. She only made her racecourse debut at Goodwood in May, scooting clear of her rivals to win by two and three-quarter lengths before recording an equally impressive performance in Listed company at Sandown. She still showed signs of inexperience last time, but the way in which she went from last to first in the final furlong, highlighted her as a promising performer. Being by Dalakhani, her pedigree suggests the step up in trip shouldn’t be a problem and although this is a massive step-up, she could certainly be up to it given her profile.



3.50 Robins Farm Racing Stewards’ Cup


The 6yo Hawkeyethenoo scooped the honours last year under Graham Lee becoming only the second six-year-old winner in the last decade. The group with the most success are the 4yo or 5yo who have won 10 of the past 12 renewals. In fact it is the 5yos that have the stronger record outpointing the 4yos by 6-4. I won’t go to the trouble of listing them all as I am sure you can work that out for yourself but it has to be a concern for the likes of Hoof It, Hawkeyethenoo, Regal Parade, Humidor & Tiddliwinks.

Given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guinea Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. This race is notorious for the runners flip-flopping in the betting in the lead up to the race but as it stands at the time of writing Tropics currently holds favouritism at 8/1 closely followed with York Glory at 10/1, Dinkum Diamond, Hawkeyethenoo and Shropshire at 14/1, Louis The Pious, Racy and Heaven’s Guest at 16/1 and Rex Imperator and Ninjago at 20/1 along with Hoof It and Whozthecat.

As with the totesport Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 103 have won 8 of the last 10 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. Horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. If you rely on the ‘magic’ 95 to 103 rated horses you must consider every runner from Hoof It down to Humidor.

Kind of following on with the same theme, it might be worth siding with a runner that achieved a top four finish on their most recent start just like 6 of the last 10 winners. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind. The race in which they run might also sway your judgement as 8 of the last 10 winners had run in the Wokingham Stakes at the Royal Meeting. To save the trouble of looking up the result, the Wokingham runners in this year’s contest are York Glory (1st), Shropshire (2nd), Dinkum Diamond (3rd), Rex Imperator (6th), Prodigality (10th), Louis The Pious (12th), Regal Parade (14th) & Secret Witness (20th).

Finally, but certainly not least is the draw. I remember in years gone by a huge amount of debate whether the stands rail of the far rail was the place to be. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as 7 of the last 8 winners came from a pretty central draw. Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground?

Based on all of that I am going to split the field by picking one low, one high and two in the middle, so hopefully I have all angles covered. Of those on the far rail I am plumping for Prodigality from stall 9. He was unlucky not to win here over course and distance in May, when he finished a nose behind Piscean. He raced in the stands side group in the Wokingham where he finished tenth before travelling to Ireland for the Paddy Power Sprint. He comes here in form on the back of his run well behind Tropics at York last week and could be one to come out of the pack.

Over on the opposite site, I like the look of Louis The Pious. He was second in the consolation Stewards’ Cup last year and has improved since joining the stable of David O’Meara. He raced in the far side group in the Wokingham, where he finished twelfth staying on. He has since defeated subsequent Ascot winner Masamah at Haydock and looks to be in fine fettle. He arrives here in good form without too much weight on his back and it will be interesting to see how he gets on from his high draw.

His third place finish in the Wokingham continued a good season for Dinkum Diamond who also finished in the places in the Investec Dash on Derby day. He ran on well at Royal Ascot but couldn’t quite get involved with the front two as they were clear. He runs here off the same mark as his last victory and given the pull in the weights he gets with York Glory, it would not be out of the question to see him go close here.

The marginal preference is for SHROPSHIRE who has been very consistent throughout this season. The five-year-old was fourth on his reappearance at Doncaster before being beaten by the progressive Move In Time next time out. He ran well when fourth at Newmarket at the Guineas meeting and found only York Glory too good in the Wokingham. He is drawn in stall 21 which gives him options and is notable that Ryan Moore has been booked to ride him. The gelding is in good form and could be set for a big run here.



4.25 Natwest Ahead For Business EBF Maiden Stakes


With seven of the last ten winners of this contest having had a run prior to winning here, it seems sensible that we should stick to those with experience when forming a shortlist for this year’s renewal. This reduces the field to seven and of that group, three make the final cut. The Marcus Tregoning trained Snow Trouble was purchased for 100,000 Guineas at the Breeze-up sales and ran well to finish third despite being very green in the early part of the race. Once the penny dropped with the colt, he finished his race off nicely and with more experience, he could go close to getting off the mark here. Oriental Relation ran in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes on only his second start and despite being outpaced early on, started to stay on at the end. He tried six furlongs for the first time at Catterick where he found only Richard Fahey’s Regiment too good on the day. He steps up once more here, but given the level of ability he has shown, it shouldn’t be long before he gets off the mark. The preference is for AFTER THE GOLDRUSH who ran nicely on debut to finish second over six furlongs. He shaped as if further would suit that day and although he appears to be the Hannon second string on jockey bookings, Ryan Moore is a more than able deputy. He will have learned a lot from his first start and looks well placed to go well here against more inexperienced rivals.



5.00 Fairmont Nursery Handicap


Mark Johnston’s Bureau made an encouraging debut when only narrowly beaten by Zeshov, who we will get to later. This was a pleasing start for the filly and although Chesham was probably too much to ask next time, her victory at Yarmouth on her latest outing suggested she was still talented. She arrives here with the yard in form and with two-year-olds difficult to assess, if her handicap mark is workable then she could go close here. As I mentioned earlier, Zeshov beat Bureau on his second start, although he still wandered around under pressure, suggesting that as he worked out those kinks there would be more improvement from him. He has had a bit of a break which will have helped him and could go well here before tackling some of the sales races towards the end of the campaign. OUR QUEENIE may have got off to an ordinary start when fourteenth of seventeen at Newmarket but that race has thrown up some nice horses including the winners of both the Queen Mary and the Albany Stakes at the Royal meeting. She was unfortunate not to get off the mark next time when she was beaten a short-head with the front pair drawing ten lengths clear of the rest. She was well fancied at Goodwood when getting off the mark and has subsequently followed up at Salisbury in a Novice Auction Stakes. She showed a lot of speed in her early races and with the step up in trip not seen as a major negative, she looks like the sort who could carry top weight in this sort of race.



5.35 Telegraph Stakes


This five furlongs handicap rounds up the Glorious Goodwood meeting and it could become crucial in the top jockeys race. Richard Hughes rides Pixilated here for Gay Kellaway with the gelding having won two of its last three starts on the racecourse. He made all last time at Sandown to turn over Roger Varian’s Exceptionelle and looks set for similar tactics here. He always seems to run his race and with the Champion jockey booked to ride, another bold show could be expected. Mick Channon’s SHORE STEP is slightly preferred having beaten Robot Boy at Haydock last time. He seems to be thriving on his racing and looks to have improved with every run this season. He still looks to be fairly progressive and with the drop to five furlongs unlikely to hinder his chances, he looks likely to be a big player here.