day 3 of yorks ebor meeting friday 23/8/2013

[ganjaman2]

1.55 SKY BET STAKES




Coming into 2013 you could have been forgiven for thinking that Winterlude wasn’t going to be a horse with a big race future but he having won two on the bounce now he may be about to win a race at the Ebor festival. He broke his maiden this year at Wolverhampton in devastating fashion, running away with the race by a distance of 7 lengths before enjoying the step up in trip at Doncaster holding on gamely near the end to win at the first time of asking in Handicap Company. It’s difficult to say how good he is but what we do know is he battles, he will love the quick ground and the extra two furlongs will be perfect for him. GOSPEL CHOIR will be hoping to emulate Kirthill who won this race last year whilst carrying top weight, the first time this has been done in ten years. Having only had five runs to date this gelding is still rather unexposed, but he is definitely talented having won three of those starts including defeats over Sun Central and Stencive last term. The only blot on her CV came in her final race of the season where she was in the process of running well before being bumped and squeezed, which really seemed to affect the inexperienced gelding. He certainly didn’t disgrace himself that day, and with a step up in trip in store for him on Friday he may be able to add another win to his impressive collection.




2.30 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup




AGE


The ages of recent Lonsdale Cup winners range from three-year-olds (Double Eclipse – the last of this age to win, in 1995) to eight-year-olds (Persian Punch, Millenary) but it is definitely those aged four or five that we should pay the greatest attention to. From just under 50% of the total runners in the last decade, four and five-year-olds have won six renewals (including four of the last five). Just three of this year’s field are aged either four or five – the Godolphin duo of Ahzeemah and Colour Vision, plus the Yorkshire hope Glen’s Diamond.


TRAINER


No strong trends if you only look at recent evidence with the five-time winner John Dunlop (responsible for last year’s hero Times Up) retiring at the end of the 2012 season. Marcus Tregoning is the only trainer with a runner today to have previously landed this contest, although the Godolphin team did score with Opinion Poll two years ago and have two chances today out of Saeed bin Suroor’s yard.


BETTING


No strong trends also here with a couple of double-figure priced winners sprinkled amongst four winning favourites in the last decade. The average starting price of the winner is a shade over 9/2


RECENT FORM


Stayers tend to mature as the season goes on and therefore it isn’t completely surprising to note that the 2011 winner Opinion Poll was the first winner of the Lonsdale Cup since Persian Punch in 2001 to have been successful on their most recent outing. Both aforementioned horses (as well as Royal Rebel in 2000) followed up wins in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup with success in this race, and no fewer than five horses that ran in this year’s renewal at the Sussex track lock horns again today (numbers one to five in the racecard). Ahzeemah came out best of the quintet that day, finishing second. Overall, seven of the last ten winners of this race had achieved a top four finish last time out which suggests that it is the horses coming into the race in decent nick that are the group to focus on.


CLASS


Only First Charter in 2004 went on to win Lonsdale Cup having not contested a Group race on their most recent start, having won the Listed Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. Every other winner contested either a Group 1 or 2 contest on their previous outing which shows the high quality nature of this race. However, this stat is meaningless today, with five of the seven runners having contested the Goodwood Cup last time out, and the other two arriving off the back of a run in the Ascot Gold Cup. Seven of the last ten winners were proven high-class performers, as shown by their official rating of at least 110. Askar Tau is the only contender not to possess such a rating today.


STAMINA


Six of the last ten winners of the Lonsdale Cup had previously won a race over two miles, but Bollin Eric, First Charter and Septimus were all stepping up to this trip for the very first time. Clearly proven stamina is not a pre-requisite for success here, as long as horses have already shown that a step up to a marathon trip will suit.


CONCLUSION


Not a strong race from a trends point of view but if we look for a four or five-year-old with proven class and stamina, that points us towards Ahzeemah who is nothing if not consistent having failed to finish out of the first two in his last nine starts. He is one of only two in today’s field who has yet to win over two miles, but seconds in a Group 3 at Meydan and in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup last time (in which he finished ahead of four of today’s field) suggests that stamina is not a problem. Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is a class act but the slight concern is that he has run poorly in three previous visits to the Knavesmire, including in this race last year.


NEGATIVES


Failed to achieve a top four finish last time – Askar Tau, Caucus, Colour Vision, Glens Diamond, Times Up
Officially rated less than 110 – Askar Tau


POSITIVES


Four or five-year-olds – Ahzeemah, Colour Vision, Glens Diamond
Previous two mile win – Askar Tau, Caucus, Colour Vision, Simenon, Times Up
Contested a Group 1 or Group 2 last time out – The field




3.05 SKY BET STRENSALL STAKES (Group 3)




Danadana has been a very tricky horse to follow over the past few years, one moment he can look very smart and the next a horse way out of his depth. A slight drop in trip combined with the faster ground on the Knavesmire may be just what he needs to reproduce the class he has shown in the past. Everything looks in his favour and if he is to run a big race this may be the day, so at 7/1 he may offer great value. The big guns of Pavlosk and ARCHBISHOP both are unexposed, undeniably talented but have question marks about them. Firstly Sir Michael Stoutes filly who jumped into the big race picture when crusing to a listed win at York earlier this season, but hasn’t looked as good since. She looked outclassed and outpaced in the Coronation Stakes before staying on eye-catchingly over seven at Goodwood. This trip and the downgrade in class may be exactly what she needs to recapture the form she showed in the listed race and she cannot be dismissed. ARCHBISHOP was consistently very good last season, despite only racing four times, two of which were in Group races abroad. On all four occasions he was inside the first two, which included two group as well as dead heating for first at Goodwood. He has a vast amount of talent will be able to eclipse his rivals if he is at his best after a lengthy absensce.



3.40 Nunthorpe Trends



AGE


Since the start of the 1980s only five Nunthorpe winners (and only four individual horses) were aged six or above, but with two of them scoring in the last four years the trend has been skewed somewhat. Sprinters do tend to have longer careers than many of their counterparts on the Flat, but overall records suggest that it is still rare for them to score regularly at the top level, so it is probably still fairly safe to oppose the old-timers today. Seven of today’s field are aged six or older, including likely market leaders Shea Shea and Sole Power.

KEY RACES


Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand Stakes remains the best pointer having supplied four of the last ten winners. Run over 5f, it is a very similar race to the Coolmore Nunthorpe as opposed to Newmarket’s Darley July Cup which is run over an extra furlong. Even so, three winners have come from the Newmarket showpiece and interestingly two of them achieved the sprint double. Six of today’s field contested the Royal Ascot race, with Sole Power (1st) and Shea Shea (2nd) faring by far the best. Slade Power finished ahead of the two aforementioned rivals when third at Newmarket.



RATING


When it comes to official ratings it would seem sensible to discount all those horses rated less than 110 as only Borderlescott (2008 and 2009) and 2010’s 100/1 surprise winner Sole Power have managed to win this race when rated below that benchmark. This significant trend helps us to narrow the field down significantly, with trend alone helps to narrow the field down significantly, with no fewer than thirteen runners falling foul of it.



RECENT FORM


The sprinting division is generally extremely open so it is no real surprise that only half of the last ten winners finished in the top three on their most recent outing. However, none of the last ten finished any worse than sixth last time out and all bar two of them had finished first or second in one of their last two starts, confirming the fact that it is very hard for an out of form runner to bounce back to his or her best in this top-class company. We can easily discount the eleven contenders who finished out of the top half dozen on their most recent start. Solid previous efforts at a high level are also a positive; of the last ten winners only La Cucaracha, Kingsgate Native and Sole Power scored here having failed to finish at least placed in a previous Group 1 or 2 event.



TRAINERS


No strong trends here with no trainer other than Aidan O’Brien, who is not represented today, having trained more than one horse to win the Coolmore Nunthorpe in recent years.

BETTING


The 2010 and 2011 renewals became a bookies benefit with Sole Power (100/1) and Margot Did (20/1) doing the business, therefore joining just three other horses that have won the Coolmore Nunthorpe since the war when returned at 16/1 or bigger, but normality resumed last year with the success of the 7/2 joint favourite. In the context of what has happened in the past it would still seem prudent to favour those towards the forefront of the betting. In the last decade alone, six winners had been no worse that fourth in the betting although, as a word of caution, it is ten years now since the last winning favourite.

FILLIES & MARES


Fillies have won six of the last twenty renewals which, on first glance, doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary. But, when you consider that very few fillies line up in the Coolmore Nunthorpe (less than a fifth of the total runners), it starts to look a lot more interesting. The girls have won the last two renewals and there are six in this year’s field who are aiming to enhance their impressive record.

CONCLUSION


A rematch between King’s Stand first and second Sole Power and Shea Shea. On the face of it, both appear to have an outstanding chance, but with both not fitting the age trends in the context of this race, it may be worth looking elsewhere. Fillies have a great record but there do not appear to be any superstars amongst the girls this year; Lady Cecil’s Tickled Pink appears to be the pick. One horse that may have gone slightly under the radar is the Ascot winner’s stablemate SLADE POWER, who may be better at six furlongs (third in the July Cup) but has a Group 3 win over five furlongs to his name and appears to be improving. He possesses a strong trends profile.

NEGATIVES


Aged six or older – Borderlescott, Hamish McGonagall, Kingsgate Choice, Kingsgate Native, Shea Shea, Sole Power, Tiddliwinks
Rated less than 110 – 13 runners including Ladies Are Forever, Tickled Pink and York Glory
Failed to finish in the first six last time out – 11 runners including Borderlescott, Kingsgate Native and Tickled Pink

POSITIVES


Fillies – Caledonia Lady, Jwala, Ladies Are Forever, Miss Lahar, Tickled Pink, Rosdhu Queen
Finished in the top two either of last two starts – 11 runners
Ran well in King’s Stand Stakes – Sole Power (1st) and Shea Shea (2nd)
Previous good form in Group 1 or 2 company – 10 runners




4.20 SKY BET MOBILE CONVIVIAL MAIDEN STAKES


Of the Glorious Goodwood maidens, GOLDEN TOWN left the strongest impression on me, when finishing fourth on the final day of the meeting. Out of a French Listed winner the Godolphin owned colt is bred in the purple hailing from the family of Authorized and Solemiam so he has a fair amount to live up to. His run at Goodwood suggested he may be capable of adding his name to his family’s role of honour; despite being very slowly away and showing all the signs of greenness he stayed on really strongly in the final few furlongs catching the first three home with every stride. The son of Invincible Spirit Showed both speed and endurance that day as well as willing attitude, and looks more than capable of emulating Wentworth in winning this race having previously run in the same race at Goodwood. A number of the horses in this field rain in that maiden but Golden Town looked the one with the most progression in him, and therefore the danger may be posed by Red Galileo whose maiden run at Newmarket looked strong as well. Ed Dunlop’s juveniles usually come on for the run so it was striking in itself that this son of Dubawi was rather unlucky not to have shed his maiden tag at the first time of asking, running on well after traffic problems, with the winner having already flown for home. He is a half-brother to Okavango so his breeding suggests he could be rather smart and if he has progressed as many of Dunlop’s do for the benefit of a run then he may live up to his Racing Post trophy entry.




4.55 NATIONWIDE ACCIDENT REPAIR SERVICES STAKES


Short Squeeze has always been held in high regard by his trainer Hugo Palmer but he has never really fired. Having taken eight attempts to finally get off the mark the big framed gelding may at last be coming into his own and be going someway to repaying his trainers faith in him. The son of Cape Cross really came into his own at Sandown last time out, seeming to relish the good to firm ground and a step back to a mile. He pulled hard but yet won very comfortably to suggest that there was a lot more to come, and although he has had a fair rise in the weights he may still be well treated to run a big race on the penultimate day of the Ebor Festival. Ralf Beckett is enjoying a terrific season and a winner at the Ebor festival will be just be another on a long list of accomplishment’s this year. His charge in the last on day three is SECRET ART a gelding who has been progressing nicely but will have slipped under the radar somewhat. He had a nice double earlier in the year before two great runs at Ascot including finishing a ½ a length behind Morpheus and then a ¾ length defeat at Newmarket behind a subsequent listed winner. He is a very consistent type, but with the class to boot which makes him a serious chance of adding another big race win to the growing tally of his trainer.