POULE D'ESSAI DES POULAINS TRENDS 2014

[ganjaman2]

The Poule d'Essai des Poulains (the French equivalent of the 2000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 11th May. It is a race that has been won 6 times by the Godolphin and Ballydoyle operations since 2000, though the home team have taken the last 6.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
American bred: 4-3-30
Irish bred: 3-9-51
French bred: 2-4-31
British bred: 1-2-20
German bred: 0-1-2
Japanese bred: 0-0-2
American bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from 22.1% of total runners
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (1 exception by Danzig who won all 3 career starts before an injury ended his career prematurely, other exception by Verglas, who was 2nd in Irish 2000 Guineas)
7 of 10 winners were by a sire who won or placed in a group 1 over 5F to 1M (1 exception was Danzig and other 2 sires had finished in first 2 in the Arc)
10 of 10 winners were born before 10th April

Recent Form
9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had had between 4 and 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had 1 to 3 previous runs that season
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time
8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 108+ on last turf start
7 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
All 3 Godolphin winners since 2000 ran in UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas on previous start
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 5 were having first try in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
4 of 7 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F (1 exception was 2nd in 7F group 1 and 3rd in 1M group 3 on two course starts & other 2 were having first run here)

Other Races
Prix Omnium II winner (Salai): 16616 (2-0-5)
Prix Djebel winner (Charm Spirit): 430201 (1-2-6)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Karakontie): 123d9060 (1-1-7)
Prix Des Melezes winner (Charm Spirit): 9618 (1-0-4)
Prix La Rochette winner (Karakontie): 254 (0-1-3)
Prix Machado winner (Decathlete): 5027 (0-1-4)
Criterium De Lyon winner (Prestige Vendome): 60 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out, finishing 14d6133
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 142
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Omnium, finishing 112
2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 72
2 of 3 non-French-trained winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-4-21) has won 3 of the last 12 renewals and seen 6 of his 21 have made the frame in past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (1-2-8) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the places in past 10 renewals.
Nicolas Clement (1-1-2) saddled the winner in 2013 and 3rd in 2006 from 2 runners.
Jean-Claude Rouget (0-2-10) has seen 4 of his 19 runners make the first 4.
British based trainers (1-3-36) have won just 1 of the last 10 despite having represented almost 30% of the total runners.
Irish trained runners (2-6-26) have also won 2 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-2-5.

Draw
If you omit 2004 when there were only 7 runners the draw stats read:
horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-8-36
horses drawn 5 to 8: 4-2-36
horses drawn 9 to 12: 1-3-34
horses drawn 13 or higher: 1-5-23
11 of 12 renewals with 10+ runners since 2000 have been won by a horse drawn 9 or below.

Price
7 of 10 winners went off 10/1 or shorter & came from first 5 in the betting
No really strong trends on prices with the 4 winners between 2003 and 2006 all going off shorter than 7/1 and last 6 winners going off 33/1, 21.5/1, 7/1, 10/1, 10/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 runnings in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.39.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- American breds do well
- Sire won a group 1 over 5F to 1M (or placed in an Arc)
- Born before 10/04/2011
- Had 4 to 8 career starts
- Won one or both of first two starts as a 2yo
- Ran at Longchamp last time out
- Run in past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 106+ on last turf start
- Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1)
- Won over 7F or 8F (ideally at Longchamp)
- Finished in first 4 in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere and/or Vintage Stakes as a 2yo
- Finished in first 3 in Prix Omnium II
- Finished in first 3 in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out
- Drawn 9 or lower
- Trained in France or by Aidan O’Brien.