The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 17th November. It is a handicap hurdle, run over 2M 110y, and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-5-33
5yo: 5-10-49
6yo: 2-5-30
7yo: 1-1-15
8yo: 0-3-13
9yo+: 0-1-11
5 year olds have a good record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 32.5% of the total runners. They have also filled 12 of 22 places in past 6 years.
Of the seven 4yos to make the frame, 6 had run on the flat with 5 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other a winner in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 3 of the 7 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including both winners).
In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 6-5-39
Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 1-10-49
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 3-10-63
Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 6 of 10 from less than 26% of total runners.
Top Weight: 140128203180 (3-3-12) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 11.
Horses carrying a penalty (0-5-6) have gained 5 places from 6 runners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 140 or more: 7-9-48
Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-11-76
Horses rated 129 or less: 1-5-27
Horses officially rated 140+ have won 7 of last 10 from approximately 31.8% of total runners.
9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (though 6 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed hurdles start
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs
9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)
8 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 12 previously)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (8 had yet to win a h’cap hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle
6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)
3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland
Since this race became a grade 3 hurdle all 9 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start
9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)
Other Races
Aquafield Training And Event Cover Novices' Hurdle winner (Pine Creek): 10 (1-0-2)
William Hill Handicap Hurdle winner (Pine Creek): P1 (1-0-2)
Anniversary Juvenile Novices' Hurdle winner (L'Unique): 17 (1-0-2)
Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 68 (0-0-2)
Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 25185071 (2-1-8)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Top Novices' Hurdle, finishing 29
2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 19
3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100
6 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st & 9th Triumph)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-2-11) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 11 runners since 2003.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-4) trained Lingo to win this in 2005.
Alan King (0-4-11) has saddled a placed finisher in 4 of the last 6 years and only 2 of his 11 runners finished worse than 6th.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-5) trained Cash And Go to finish 2nd last year and Aigle D’Or in 2nd in 2008.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), David Pipe (0-1-2) and John Quinn (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years. Tony Martin’s last runner in this race was well-backed She’s Our Mare, a close 2nd in 1999.
Irish based trainers (2-2-26) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners were held up early on (the two winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe)
Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower
Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, with the 33/1 winner in 2003 the only exception. 6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes loss of 3.47.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or a 4yo that ran on flat & ran in 2013 Triumph Hurdle
- Carrying 11-4+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)
- Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)
- Finished in the first two on last NH start (in a class 1 hurdle)
- Second or third season hurdler
- Run no more than 9 times over hurdles
- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)
- Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
- Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better
- Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- Tends to be held up
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill
- Priced 12/1 or shorter.
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