Close

Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    351

    Info GREATWOOD HURDLE TRENDS 2013

    The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 17th November. It is a handicap hurdle, run over 2M 110y, and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 2-5-33
    5yo: 5-10-49
    6yo: 2-5-30
    7yo: 1-1-15
    8yo: 0-3-13
    9yo+: 0-1-11
    5 year olds have a good record in this race having won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 32.5% of the total runners. They have also filled 12 of 22 places in past 6 years.
    Of the seven 4yos to make the frame, 6 had run on the flat with 5 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other a winner in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 3 of the 7 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including both winners).
    In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 6-5-39
    Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 1-10-49
    Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 3-10-63
    Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 6 of 10 from less than 26% of total runners.
    Top Weight: 140128203180 (3-3-12) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 11.
    Horses carrying a penalty (0-5-6) have gained 5 places from 6 runners.

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 140 or more: 7-9-48
    Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-11-76
    Horses rated 129 or less: 1-5-27
    Horses officially rated 140+ have won 7 of last 10 from approximately 31.8% of total runners.
    9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (though 6 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed hurdles start
    7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs
    9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)
    8 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles
    8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 12 previously)
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (8 had yet to win a h’cap hurdle)
    6 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle
    6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)
    3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland
    Since this race became a grade 3 hurdle all 9 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start
    9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)

    Other Races
    Aquafield Training And Event Cover Novices' Hurdle winner (Pine Creek): 10 (1-0-2)
    William Hill Handicap Hurdle winner (Pine Creek): P1 (1-0-2)
    Anniversary Juvenile Novices' Hurdle winner (L'Unique): 17 (1-0-2)
    Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 68 (0-0-2)
    Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 25185071 (2-1-8)
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Top Novices' Hurdle, finishing 29
    2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 19
    3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100
    6 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st & 9th Triumph)

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (2-2-11) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 11 runners since 2003.
    Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-4) trained Lingo to win this in 2005.
    Alan King (0-4-11) has saddled a placed finisher in 4 of the last 6 years and only 2 of his 11 runners finished worse than 6th.
    Nicky Henderson (0-2-5) trained Cash And Go to finish 2nd last year and Aigle D’Or in 2nd in 2008.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2), David Pipe (0-1-2) and John Quinn (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years. Tony Martin’s last runner in this race was well-backed She’s Our Mare, a close 2nd in 1999.
    Irish based trainers (2-2-26) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners were held up early on (the two winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe)

    Price
    9 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower
    Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, with the 33/1 winner in 2003 the only exception. 6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.
    Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes loss of 3.47.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 5 or a 4yo that ran on flat & ran in 2013 Triumph Hurdle
    - Carrying 11-4+ (top weight does well)
    - Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)
    - Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)
    - Finished in the first two on last NH start (in a class 1 hurdle)
    - Second or third season hurdler
    - Run no more than 9 times over hurdles
    - Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)
    - Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
    - Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better
    - Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival
    - Tends to be held up
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill
    - Priced 12/1 or shorter.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th November 2013)  


  2. #2
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    351

    Default Re: GREATWOOD HURDLE TRENDS 2013

    The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle
    £100,000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110y, Class 1
    19 entries
    Going: Good, Good to Soft in places

    Form Horse Age Wt Trainer
    13411-0 Court Minstrel (IRE) 6 11-10 Evan Williams
    14PP0-0 Get Me Out Of Here (IRE) 9 11-10 Jonjo O'Neill
    121-413 Ahyaknowyerself (IRE) 7 11-8 Dr R D P Newland
    11325-2 Tanerko Emery (FR) 7 11-8 D Pipe
    21332-1 Sametegal (FR) 4 11-5 P F Nicholls
    1165- Rolling Star (FR) 4 11-4 N J Henderson
    15/2U00- Cash And Go (IRE) 6 11-2 N J Henderson
    514-213 Flaxen Flare (IRE) 4 11-2 G Elliott
    41131-6 L'unique (FR) 4 11-1 A King
    20-2110 Rawnaq (IRE) 6 10-13 Matthew J Smith
    020B-03 Thomas Edison (IRE) 6 10-13 A J Martin
    312520/ Kalann (IRE) 6 10-12 Miss S J Harty
    3115-1 Pine Creek 5 10-12 J P Ferguson
    11U0- Kashmir Peak (IRE) 4 10-10 J J Quinn
    1010F-3 Ifandbutwhynot (IRE) 7 10-8 D O'Meara
    300/3-30 Redera (IRE) 7 10-8 A J Martin
    153116- Calculated Risk 4 10-4 J J Quinn
    222 Dell' Arca (IRE) 4 10-3 D Pipe
    3052/U0 Orzare (IRE) 7 9-11 Philip Hide

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (11th November 2013),  neilb (11th November 2013)  


Similar Threads

  1. [World News] US healthcare bill passes first Senate hurdle in vote
    By 4me2 in forum News & Current Affairs
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 22nd November 2009, 01:23 PM
  2. Google trends
    By burner1 in forum The Dog and Duck
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 17th August 2008, 11:09 PM
  3. Some current trends in Fraud - a good read
    By unclex in forum System Security
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 17th January 2008, 01:59 PM
  4. you`re supposed to jump the hurdle.....
    By GameKing in forum Funny/Strange Video Clips
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 29th August 2007, 04:06 PM
  5. Pierse Hurdle 2.20 Leapoardstown
    By Justcracked in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 13th January 2006, 10:32 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •