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    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Info INTERNATIONAL HURDLE TRENDS 2013

    The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F and it takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 14th December. In recent years the Greatwood Hurdle has proven a key race in finding the winner of this however surprisingly this year, only 7th placed Court Minstrel is entered in this year’s International Hurdle.





    In 2008 the race was run at Ascot after being abandoned at Cheltenham. From a trends point of view we will focus on the 10 runnings from 2002 to 2012 (excluding 2008):





    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 2-5-16
    5yo: 4-3-19
    6yo: 1-1-9
    7yo: 2-4-13
    8yo: 1-1-7
    9yo+: 0-0-11
    As we can see the winners’ ages have varied in the past 10 runnings.
    Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 7-9-44 which compares well to horses aged 7+ of 3-5-31.
    The last 9 winners have been aged 4 to 7.
    5 of 7 horses aged 4 to make the frame had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 at Cheltenham Festival (other 2 won the Ascot Hurdle or Racing Post Hurdle on previous start)

    Weight
    Horses carrying 11-8: 2-5-26
    Horses carrying 11-4: 7-6-24
    Horses carrying 11-0: 1-3-24
    7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-4. Both winners to carry 11-8 were trained in Ireland.

    Recent/Past Form
    10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 last time (7 won)
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time
    10 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days
    9 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle
    6 of last 8 winners had won a grade 1
    7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in Greatwood Hurdle, 2nd in Champion Hurdle & 3rd in Triumph Hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had run in at least 6 hurdles races previously
    10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+

    Other Races
    Previous year's winner (Zarkandar): 42 (0-1-2)
    Highest placed finisher from the Greatwood Hurdle: 2113611113 (6-1-10)
    William Hill - Download The App Hurdle winner (The New One): 11 (2-0-2)
    Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (The New One): 2 (0-1-1)
    Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 55 (0-0-2)
    Kingwell Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): F66 (0-0-3)
    6 of 10 winners ran in Greatwood Hurdle last time, finishing 111211
    3 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 100
    3 of 10 winners ran in Elite Hurdle, finishing 4F1
    2 of 10 winners ran in Betfair Hurdle, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 25
    2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 13
    2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 1B
    2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 23
    2 of 10 winners ran in the William Hill - Download The App Hurdle, finishing 11
    7 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Top Novice, 2 Anniversary, 2 Aintree Hurdle and 1 Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle)

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (2-3-9) has trained 2 winners (2003 & 2012) & 3 placed finishers in past 10 renewals.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) trained Khyber Kim to win this in 2009.
    Colin Tizzard’s (0-1-1) one previous runner finished 2nd in 2010.

    Price
    The favourite (7-1-12) has won 7 of the last 10 & shows a level stakes profit of 6.15 since 2002.



    Summary:


    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 4 to 7
    - Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 35 days
    - Posted at RPR of 150+ last time out
    - Had previously run at least 6 times over hurdles
    - Officially rated 148+
    - Carrying 11-4
    - Previously won a listed or graded hurdle (ideally won a grade 1)
    - Course and distance winner (or placed in a grade 1 over this CD)
    - Finished in first 2 in the Greatwood Hurdle
    - Ran in County, Triumph or Champion Hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival
    - Contested a hurdle at the 2013 Aintree Festival
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls
    - Favourite does well

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (10th December 2013),  neilb (10th December 2013)  


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