CHRISTMAS HURDLE TRENDS 2013

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The WilliamHill.com Christmas Hurdle is part of the supporting card to the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The Fighting Fifth Hurdle has proven the key trial race for this in recent times with 5 of the last 10 winners running in it prior to taking this.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (for age purposes we’ll assume 2010-11 renewal was run in 2010)
4yo: 0-1-13
5yo: 3-1-14
6yo: 5-4-18
7yo: 1-0-4
8yo: 0-2-11
9yo: 1-1-4
10yo: 0-1-1
8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, both exceptions were previous winners.
4yos have a poor record, having gained just 1 place from 13 runners, this included last year’s unplaced favourite, Countrywide Flame.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ in last hurdles start
7 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (3 exceptions finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
8 of 10 winners had had 6 to 17 previous hurdles starts
7 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1
5 of 10 winners had won at Kempton previously (4 of 5 others having first course start)

Other Races
Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 142F134 (2-1-7)
Top Novice Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 4F1 (1-0-3)
Masterson Holdings Hurdle winner (Sametegal): 23 (0-1-2)
William Hill Download The App Hurdle winner (The New One): 62P (0-1-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 31132
5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's race, finishing 14231
4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 5P01
3 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 443
3 of 4 second season hurdler winners ran in Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 712
2 of 10 winners ran in Contenders Hurdle, finishing 11 (both Binocular)
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 34

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-0-9) has won the last 3 runnings, twice with Binocular and last year with the ill-fated Darlan. He also trained the winner in 2000 & 2001.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-11) has a surprisingly bad record having gained just 1 place from 11 runners in the past 10 years.
Alan King (0-1-2) has saddled Raya Star to finish 2nd in 2012 & Penzance 3rd in 2006.
Irish trained runners (5-1-6) have dominated in recent years, winning 5 of the last 9 runnings and they have not been represented in past 3 renewals. Noel Meade (4-1-5), has been most responsible for most of this success. No Irish runner entered this year.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 10/1 and all 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting.
Favourite (4-2-10) has won 4 of last 10 renewals but shows a level stakes loss of 0.90.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 3 in last season’s race)
- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 154+ on last hurdles start
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle (or grade 2 winner that placed in a grade 1)
- Previously run 6 to 17 times over hurdles
- Course winner (or having first run at Kempton)
- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth last time out
- Finished in first 4 in 2012 Christmas, Punchestown Champion and/or Tipperary Hurdle
- Ran in Champion Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham 2013
- Trained by Nicky Henderson
- Priced 7/1 or lower.