day 1 cheltenham festival trends 2014

[ganjaman2]

Supreme Novices' Hurdle


Arkle Challenge Trophy


festival hcp chase


champion hurdle


mares hurdle


national hunt chase


novices handicap chase


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2014




The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival, which kicks off on the 11th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998 ten winners have come from Ireland and last year Hurricane Fly became only the second horse ever to regain the title after winning it in 2011. He now looks to follow in the footsteps of the great, Sea Pigeon, and become only the second horse in last 50 years to win this aged older than 9.






Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:




Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-6-27
6yo: 2-4-37
7yo: 4-3-26
8yo: 2-4-22
9yo: 1-2-9
10yo: 0-1-5
11yo+: 0-0-10
9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just over 70.8% of total runners.
The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
Horses aged 10+ have record of 0-1-15 since 2004, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.

Horses that ran well in this aged 5
Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:
In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010
Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).

Gender
The 3 mares (0-0-3) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 160+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (2 exceptions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (2 exceptions were 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)
The 10 winners had collectively had 32 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 31 they completed, they finished in first 3 in 30 of them.

Big Field Form
When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F.
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10+ runners: 26-6-33
Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 18-8-35
The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners.

Last year’s race
Hurricane Fly regained the title when winning last year’s Champion Hurdle by 2½ lengths from Rock On Ruby, and while Hurricane Fly has done little wrong since, winning 3 grade 1 hurdles from 3 runs since, those in behind haven’t done a huge amount for the form. Runner-up, Rock On Ruby, has been unplaced in both hurdles runs since, 3rd Countrywide Flame was 5th in Aintree Hurdle on only hurdles run since. 4th Zarkandar did win the Aintree Hurdle on next start, but has lost out on all 3 runs this season. The other 3 runners to run since over hurdles have were unplaced next time.
The combined subsequent hurdles record of all 9 runners is 4-1-13, though that becomes 1-1-10 if you ignore Hurricane Fly's 3 wins.
The form next time out of the 10 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 1251056 (2-0-7).

Cheltenham Festival Form
Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 213246932 (1-5-9)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Our Conor): F612353 (1-3-7)
Neptune Investments Novices' winner (The New One): 12 (1-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 1621 (2-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: 635P0305P (0-2-9)
5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 13331
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
4 of 4 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
5 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (4 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)

Other races
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1116131 (5-1-7)
Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 75120611 (3-1-8)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner: 4514006131 (3-1-10)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 21F961 (2-1-6)
Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 25P010223 (1-4-9)
Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Jezki): 21 (1-1-2)
Contenders Hurdle winner: 006721 (1-1-6)
Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)
Previous year's Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Rolling Star): 1 (1-0-1)
Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Un De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1)
International Hurdle winner (The New One): 89623254 (0-3-8)
Ascot hurdle winner (Annie Power): 432 (0-2-3)
Champion Hurdle Trial winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 24379 (0-2-5)
Christmas Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 325004 (0-2-6)
Read Nicholls & McCain on Betfair Hurdle winner (Rolling Star): 3U (0-1-2)
Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 93 (0-1-2)
Evening Herald Champ Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 3F8 (0-1-3)
Elite Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 049 (0-0-3)
Top Novice hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 00P0 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 11111
5 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle, finishing 73111
4 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 3111
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time, finishing 21
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F32
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13

Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-5-51) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (2-5-15) has saddled 2 winners and 5 places from 15 runners in past 10 renewals.
Dessie Hughes (2-1-5) trained Hardy Eustace to gained 2 wins and a 3rd while Willie Mullins (2-1-8) has saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st in last 3 years.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) & Alan King (1-0-6) have both trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Donald McCain (0-2-5) has trained the runner-up in 2011 & 2012.
Harry Fry (0-1-1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-3) have each trained the runner-up in past 8 years.

Price
5 of the last 7 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
Longer prices have held sway in this in past 7 years with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8 the only 2 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.38.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Gelding aged 6 to 9
- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2013 Festival
- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle
- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY TRENDS 2014


The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Voy Por Ustedes. Irish trainers appear to hold a strong hand in the race this year while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-4-20
6yo: 1-3-29
7yo: 6-5-50
8yo: 1-6-24
9yo+: 0-0-5
5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this.
The last 4 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.

Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-9-52
French Bred: 3-4-33
British Bred: 2-3-27
German Bred: 1-2-10
Other: 0-0-6
Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
3 of 4 winners bred in France or Germany were aged 5 or 6
All 6 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all chase runs
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races
8 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (2 exceptions had won grade 1 hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune and other was having first course start)

Other Races
Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 835P511 (2-1-7)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: U12626 (1-2-6)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): F172924 (1-2-7)
Winter Gala Novices' Chase winner (Rock On Ruby): 124 (1-1-3)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 012 (1-1-3)
Noel Novice Chase winner (Fox Appeal): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 1P (1-0-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner: P1 (1-0-2)
Halloween Trophy winner (Vukovar): 26352 (0-3-5)
Irish Arkle winner (Trifolium): 206403 (0-2-6)
Bet Victor Robert Mottram Memorial Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 2 (0-1-1)
Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase winner (): 2 (0-1-1)
Follow @AtTheRaces on Twitter Novices' Chase winner (Brick Red): U2 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 436 (0-1-3)
Craddockstown winner (Felix Younger): 013 (1-1-3)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Valdez): 5350 (0-1-4)
November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): FF26F54 (0-1-7)
Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 4 (0-0-1)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 4P (0-0-2)
Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novices' Chase winner (Dark Lover): U3 (0-0-2)
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 22
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice chase, finishing 12
2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase at Leopardstown (Irish Arkle or Racing Post Novice Chase)
Last 5 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous year’s Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, Supreme, Triumph & World Hurdle)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in graded hurdle at previous Aintree Festival (2 Mersey, 1 Top, 1 Anniversary & 1 Aintree)

Trainers
Alan King (2-0-5) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win last 2 renewals and half his runners since 2004 have made the frame.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-14) last trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 14 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places.
Mouse Morris (0-1-2), Nicky Richard (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-4) have all saddled a placed finishers in this since 2004.
Irish trained runners (2-4-34) have an average record in the race, producing 2 winners from approximately 26.6% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 2 of the past 5 winners.
This has not been a happy race for the biggest Irish trainer, Willie Mullins (0-0-7). He has never won it and in past 10 years all 7 of his runners finished out of the frame.

Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals should be focused on, but it has not been a great race for the favourite.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won last 2, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 6.74.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7
- Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
- Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
- Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree Festival 2013
- Trained by Alan King or Nicky Henderson
- Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1).

[ganjaman2]

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014


The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 11th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 9 of the last 15 winners being trained in Ireland.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-6
5yo: 4-13-88
6yo: 5-5-70
7yo: 1-1-20
8yo+: 0-1-4
No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.

Gender
Mares (0-1-6) have gained 1 place from 6 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

Other Races
Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Vautour): 131 (2-1-3)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 31 (1-1-2)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 610U2 (1-1-5)
Champion Bumper winner (Briar Hill): 75341 (1-1-5)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Royal Boy): 01 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 81 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (The Liquidator): 501 (1-0-3)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 200373 (0-3-6)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 252 (0-2-3)
Jack Dee Here On 31st October Maiden Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 3 (0-1-1)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): U03 (0-1-3)
GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 0P2 (0-1-3)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 803 (0-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): P925 (0-1-4)
Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 40 (0-0-2)
Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Clondaw Court): 85 (0-0-2)
William Hill - On Your Mobile Novices' Hurdle winner (Sea Lord): 090 (0-0-3)
bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Volnay De Thaix): 0065 (0-0-4)
Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle winner (Western Boy): 5000 (0-0-4)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Double Irish): 6940 (0-0-4)
Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 00409 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Cash Out Your Saturday Multiples With Betfair last time, finishing 31
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 1F
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained horses (5-5-61) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
Willie Mullins (2-0-15) trained the winner in 2007 & 2013.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-8), Noel Meade (1-1-8) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-7-16) has seen 7 of his 16 runners make the frame.

Price
Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 9 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50. You have to go back to 2004 for last winning favourite.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Posted an RPR of 137+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
- Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat
- Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper
- Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

FESTIVAL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2014


The Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-14
7yo: 3-9-32
8yo: 4-2-41
9yo: 1-10-46
10yo: 2-4-32
11yo+: 0-1-31
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 35 of 38 places
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-13-87
horses aged 9 or older: 3-15-109
horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled just 1 place from 31 runners in the past 10 renewals.

Breeding
Irish bred: 8-11-99
French bred: 1-9-48
British bred: 1-7-38
Other: 0-1-11
Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 50.5% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-14-73
horses carrying 10-5 to 10-13: 6-12-89
horses carrying 10-4 or lower: 3-2-34
9 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less and so are heavily favoured.
Top Weight: P23P0787597P (0-2-12)

Official Ratings
horses rated 144 or higher: 0-12-66
horses rated 130 to 143: 8-16-113
horses rated 129 or below: 2-0-17
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Golden Chieftain): F (0-0-1)
Thyestes Chase winner (On His Own): 19 (1-0-2)
Sky Bet Chase winner (The Rainbow Hunter: PFF1 (1-0-4)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 05
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing B7
2 of 2 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November
2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P

Trainers
Alan King (2-1-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-11) have each saddled 2 winners since 2004.
David Pipe (1-2-11), Tony Martin (1-0-3) & Colin Tizzard have all trained 1 of last 10 winners.
Nicky Henderson (0-5-13) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his 13 runners get placed in past 10 runnings.
Donald McCain (0-2-2) trained Our Mick to finish 3rd and 2nd in last 2 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) has gained 2 places from 11 runners while Gary Moore (0-1-3) has seen all 3 of his runners make first 6.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-17) and Venetia Williams (0-1-11) have managed just 2 places from their collective 28 runners since 2004.
There had been no Irish trained (1-2-15) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003 but the Irish have landed 2 of the 11 renewals. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

Price
6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
The market principals have quite well, with 21 of 38 places being filled by horses priced 12/1 or lower however there have been 3 big shocks in the last 7 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & 28/1 last year.
Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)
- Irish bred
- Carrying 10-13 or less
- Officially rated 129 to 143
- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 134+ last time
- Won over 3M+
- First or second season chaser
- Won 1 to 3 times over fences
- Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
- Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland.

[ganjaman2]

NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2014


The Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase is a novice event, run over 4 miles, and is restricted to amateur jockeys. Conditions of the race changed in 2010 as there was formerly a penalty structure for previous chase wins, which has now been scrapped, meaning the race now attracts higher class novices.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-26
7yo: 5-8-77
8yo: 4-5-50
9yo: 0-3-25
10yo: 0-1-9
11yo+: 0-0-4
7 & 8 year olds have won 9 of last 10 but have represented approximately 66.5% of total runners.

Gender
Mares (0-1-7) have gained 1 place from 7 runners.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 5-15-123
English Bred: 3-4-44
French Bred: 2-1-22
Other: 0-0-2
No major trends to be found on the winners’ breeding.
Record of progeny of Oscar: 16P1 (2-0-4)

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since July
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases (exception was a season chaser)
10 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
5 of 7 British-trained winners had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+

Other Races
Record of horses that finished in first 5 in Topaz Novice Chase: 8021F21 (2-2-7)
Highest placed finisher from December Novice Chase: 110 (2-0-3)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Morning Assembly): 81 (1-0-2)
Watch On 3 Devices racinguk.com/anywhere Novice H'cap Chase winner (Benvolio): 17U (1-0-3)
starsportsbet.co.uk Novices' Chase winner (Midnight Prayer): 3 (0-1-1)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 5F2 (0-1-3)
Towton Novices' Chase winner (Ely Brown): 6 (0-0-1)
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (O'Faolains Boy): F (0-0-1)
Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Sam Winner): 6 (0-0-1)
Ten Up Chase winner (Foxrock): 85 (0-0-2)
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Topaz Chase, finishing F51
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the December Novice Chase, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Rewards4Racing Novice Chase, finishing F2

Trainers
Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-14) has won 4 of the last 12 renewals although not always with his first string (winners’ prices were 10/1, 25/1, 5/1 and 33/1). His last winner came in 2007 and his 4 runners since then have finished PUPP.
Alan King (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2008 and the 3rd last year.
Rebecca Curtis (1-0-1), Gordon Elliot (1-0-2), Willie Mullins (1-0-6) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-8) have all saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Tony Martin (0-1-1) has saddled one runner, runner-up in 2009.
Desise Hughes (0-1-2) has saddled 2 seconds from 3 runners since 2000.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-10) has a poor record in this, gaining just 1 place from 10 runners since 2004 (which included 3 favourites).
Irish trained runners (3-10-47) have done well in this race recently, having won 3 of the last 10 and in past 5 years they have accounted for the 2nd in 2009, the 2nd & 3rd in 2010, the winner in 2011, the 3rd & 4th in 2012 and 1st & 2nd in 2013.

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
4 of 10 winners race prominently

Price
Between 2003 & 2007, 4 of 5 winners were sent off 25/1 or bigger but since 2008 all 6 winners were priced between 5/1 & 14/1, with favourites taking last 3.


Favourites (4-1-11) have won 4 of 10 (including last 3), giving a level stakes profit of 8.25.





Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 or 8


- Progeny of Oscar should be respected


- Finished in first 2 last time in past 50 days


- Run 4 to 8 times this season


- Run in 3 to 9 chases


- Has won a race over 3M+


- Finished in the first 2 in a chase over 3M+


- Made racecourse debut in a point to point, bumper or hurdle


- Won or placed in a Newbury Chase over 2M 4F or further


- Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King or in Ireland & ran in Topaz Novice Chase.

[ganjaman2]

REWARDS4RACING NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2014



The Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase was first run in 2005 and it is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4½F. Prior to 2011 it was run on the new course with no upper limit on ratings but now it’s run on the old course for horses rated 0-140, so some trends will have less relevance.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-15
6yo: 1-8-31
7yo: 6-7-73
8yo: 1-6-37
9yo: 0-4-15
10yo+: 0-1-5
7 year olds have won all 6 of the 9 runnings from approximately 41.5% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-4 or more: 3-11-75
horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 5-12-69
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 1-4-32
The last 8 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s almost assured that all runners will have at least 10-11. Since the new conditions for the race were introduced in 2011, all 12 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more, though only 5 of 60 runners carried less than 11-4.
Top weights: 507708P1P1 (2-0-10) have won the last 2 runnings.
horses carrying a penalty: 670502P6PP (0-1-10)

Official Ratings (ratings now capped to 0-140)
horses rated 138 or higher: 3-9-67
horses rated 130 to 137: 5-17-96
horses rated 129 or lower: 1-1-13
horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 7 renewals and filled 27 of 36 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures have less relevance.
horses rated 137+ have won past 2 renewals & filled 6 of 8 places.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners finished in the first 2 last time (exception won penultimate start)
9 of 9 winners had their last run in past 60 days
9 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 133+ in last 2 completed chases starts
7 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (1 exception finished in first 3 in 3 of 4 chase starts & other finished in first 3 in 2 of 3 completed starts)
6 of 9 winners were having first run in a h’cap chase (last 2 winners had run in 3 & 6 h’cap chases)
9 of 9 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season
6 of 9 winners had won just 1 chase
8 of 9 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception had not run over further than 2M 2F)
4 of 9 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival
7 of 9 winners were officially rated 125+ over hurdles
7 of 9 winners had run no more than 8 times over hurdles
5 of 9 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle

Other Races
2 of 9 winners ran in Jack Fletcher Beginners' Chase, finishing F3
2 of 9 winners had won a 2M 5F chase at Folkestone
2 of 9 winners (last 2) had won a 2M 5F Handicap chase at Kempton that season

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (1-5-18) trained Rajdhani Express to win this race last year and has also seen 5 of his other 17 runners make the frame.
Tom Taaffe (1-1-3) has saddled 3 runners in this, to finish 3rd, 6th & 1st.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-9) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-15) have each trained the winner in past 5 years.
Nick Gifford (0-2-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-6) & Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-7) have all saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Noel Chance (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-1), Mouse Morris (0-1-1), Seamus Mullins (0-1-1) and Tony Martin (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the frame, while Dessie Hughes (0-1-2), Colin Tizzard (0-1-3), David Pipe (0-1-6) & Venetia Williams (0-1-9) have all accounted for 1 place in the past 2 years.
Irish trained runners (1-6-27) have an average record, winning one and 12 of their 27 runners making the first 6.

Price
7 of 9 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Favourites (2-0-9) have won 2 of the 9 runnings giving a level stakes profit of 4.00.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 7 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7
- Top weights have done well recently
- Officially rated 137 or higher
- Finished in first 2 last time (posting an RPR of 133+)
- Run in 3 to 7 chases this season
- Finished in first 3 on all completed chase starts this season
- Won over 2M 4F or further
- Run no more than 8 times over hurdles (won or placed in a class 1 hurdle)
- Officially rated 125 or higher over hurdles
- Won a 2M 5F chase at Kempton or Folkestone this season
- From the first 5 in the betting.

[ganjaman2]

MARES HURDLE TRENDS 2014


The OLBG Mares Hurdle is one of the newer races, introduced in 2008, and is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4F. The one horse that has dominated this race is Quevega, who has won the last 5 runnings. For obvious reasons her dominance means that looking at some trends based on the winners will be meaningless but if you omit her from some statistics, we may be able to find the mare most likely to challenge her this year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 6 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Quevega has won this for last 5 years (aged 5 to 9), it may be more enlightening to look at age stats when removing her from the race.
Age stats w/o Quevega (i.e. the 2nd to Quevega is counted as winner)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 1-0-19
6yo: 3-4-30
7yo: 1-3-23
8yo: 1-3-14
9yo+: 0-2-6
10yo+: 0-0-2

Breeding
The French-bred Quevega has won the last 5, but when excluding her from last 5 renewals, breeding stats read:
British Bred: 3-4-43
Irish Bred: 1-8-38
German bred: 1-0-1
French Bred: 1-0-14
USA bred: 0-0-1

Weight (stats excluding Quevega from past 5 renewals)
horses carrying 11-5: 3-5-31
horses carrying 11-3: 0-1-7
horses carrying 11-0: 3-7-56
horses carrying less than 11-0: 0-0-3

Recent/Past Form of 7 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega
7 of 7 finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
7 of 7 finished in first 2 last time (5 won)
6 of 7 won 1 of last 2 starts
5 of 7 posted an RPR of 142+ last time
7 of 7 had run in past 55 days
5 of 7 had previously run in 4 to 8 hurdles races
7 of 7 had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
6 of 7 had won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
5 of 7 had won a class 1 NH flat race or hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 2)
7 of 7 had contested a grade 1 or 2 under NH rules
6 of 7 winners made debut in a NH race (exception had first run on flat in France)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Quevega): 1111 (4-0-4)
World Series Hurdle winner (Quevega): 2111 (3-1-4)
Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle winner (Carole's Spirit): 022 (0-2-3)
Warfield Mares Hurdle winner (Highland Retreat): 8220 (0-2-4)
Irish Thoroughbred Association Fillies Scheme EBF Mares Hurdle winner (Glens Melody): 035U (0-1-4)
Doncaster OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 3P04 (0-1-4)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Final winner (Annie Power): 04 (0-0-2)
Wetherby OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Cockney Sparrow): 7409 (0-0-4)
Your Favourite Bets at Totepool.com Mares H'cap Hurdle winner (Highland Retreat): 04800 (0-0-5)
3 of Quevega’s 5 wins came after winning the World Series Hurdle last time out

Other Races (7 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega)
4 of 7 ran in Warfield Hurdle, finishing 2112
2 of 7 ran in Mares listed bumper at previous year's Aintree Festival, finishing 01
2 of 7 ran in previous year's Punchestown World Series Hurdle, finishing 13
2 of 7 ran in the Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle, finishing 11

Trainers
Willie Mullins (5-0-6) has won last 5 with Quevega.
Donald McCain (1-0-4) won the inaugural running with Whiteoak.
Paul Nolan (0-2-3) & Nicky Henderson (0-2-8) have each saddled 2 placed finishers.
Lucy Wadham (0-1-1), Emmanuel Clayeux (0-1-1), Richard Price (0-1-1), Colm Murphy (0-1-2), Nick Williams (0-1-2), Jonjo O'Neill (0-1-2) and Emma Lavelle (0-1-4) have all been responsible for 1 placed finisher.
Irish trained runners (5-3-24) have won last 5 (all Quevega). If you remove Willie Mullins & Paul Nolan’s runners from the Irish contingent, their record becomes 0-1-15.

Price
5 of 6 winners were Quevega, who was sent off favourite on each occasion, with Whiteoak winning it in 2008 at 20/1.
Removing Quevega’s 5 wins, 9 of the other 13 places have been filled by double-figure priced runners and at least one horse price 20/1 or bigger has made the frame in every renewal (2nd & 3rd last year were priced 33/1 & 40/1, while in 2012 the 2nd & 3rd went off at 14/1 & 66/1).
Favourite (5-1-6) has won 5 of 6 (all Quevega), giving a level stakes profit of 4.64.


Summary:
Quevega comes into the race on the back of winning last season’s World Series Hurdle, just like she has for past 3 seasons, so she will be very hard to beat if lining up.
Based on the trends from the past 6 runnings her main rival will likely be:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
- Finished in first 2 last time (in past 55 days)
- Won 1 of last 2 starts
- Posted an RPR of 142+ last time
- Had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
- Had won a class 1 race under NH rules (or placed in a graded hurdle)
- Made racecourse debut in a NH race
- Finished in first 2 in Warfield and/or Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle.