BETFAIR HURDLE TRENDS 2014
The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 8th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 4 winners had run in just 3 hurdles races prior to landing this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2002-2013):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 4-11-59
6yo: 3-8-65
7yo: 2-2-38
8yo: 0-4-25
9yo: 1-1-17
10yo+: 0-3-10
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 7 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-0 or more: 4-6-45
horses carrying 10-13 or less: 6-23-171
horses carrying 11-0 or more have won 4 of last 10 (including last 2) from under 21% of total runners.
Official Ratings
horses rated 144 or more: 4-6-44
horses rated 131 to 143: 4-19-133
horses rated 130 or lower: 2-4-39
2 of 4 winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while the other 2 had been placed in a graded NH race.
Both winners rated 130 or lower were trained by Gary Moore.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won including last 4)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (3 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
Last 7 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 28K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
Other Races
Adonis Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 0210 (1-1-4)
Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December H’cap Hurdle winner (Deep Trouble): 1025 (1-1-4)
stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 2 (0-1-1)
Holloway's Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 4 (0-1-1)
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Dell 'Arca): 7 (0-0-1)
Elite Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 00 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December H’cap Hurdle, finishing 173
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle last time, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51
2 of 3 novice hurdle winners (last 2) ran in GL Events Owen Brown Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
Trainers
Nicky Henderson (2-4-33) has won this 4 times since 2000 and trained My Tent Or Yours to win last year.
Gary Moore (2-2-10) trained the winner twice in past 6 runnings & his last runner (which was in 2012) made the places.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-8) & Paul Nicholls (1-1-13) have both saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the past 4 years.
John Quinn (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2011.
Philip Hobbs (0-5-14) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his 14 runners finishing in the top six, 5 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-4-10) and Alan King (0-3-9) have accounted for 7 of the 16 horses to finish in the first 4 in the past 4 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from 12.5% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices, 3 of last 4 winners were first or second favourite while 6 of the last 10 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 4.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
- Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
- Posted career high RPR in last 2 starts
- First or second season hurdler
- Run 10 times or less over hurdles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
- Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
- Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Steel Plate and Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore, Alan King, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs
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