EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2014

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The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 6th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in past 6 years with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 and the last 3 winners going off at 20/1.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


British bred: 5-10-53
Irish bred: 4-6-51
American bred: 1-3-12
Other: 0-0-3
10 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner
Pivotal progeny: 0133 (1-2-4)

Dosage Profile


Composite Dosage profile: 5-3.2-14.6-3.8-1.8
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.20
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.20

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season


10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time
6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial)
9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out


10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (1 exception finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

2yo Form


Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Maiden Fillies' winner (Taghrooda): 126 (1-1-3)
pioneerfurniture.co.uk Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturers EBF Maiden winner (Regardez): 3 (0-1-1)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 4 (0-0-1)
May Hill Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 64 (0-0-2)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 505 (0-0-3)
Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 455 (0-0-3)

3yo Form


Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Inchila): 154147 (2-0-6)
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Taghrooda): 1000071 (2-0-7)
Musidora Stakes winner (Madame Chiang: 33851635 (1-3-8)
Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Marsh Daisy): 227166 (1-2-6)
Newbury Fillies Trial winner (Volume): 1043 (1-1-4)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Anipa): 6100527 (1-1-7)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Honor Bound): 7902942 (0-2-7)
Salsabil Stakes winner (Dazzling): 257 (0-1-3)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bracelet): 4 (0-0-1)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Tarfasha): 405 (0-0-3)
Breeders Backing Racing E B F Maiden Fillies' winner (Madame Chiang): 770 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Pretty Polly Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (2-6-34) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 28.6% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-4-10.
Ralph Beckett (2-1-6) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
Ed Dunlop (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010 from just 3 runners in past 10 renewals.
John Gosden (0-2-6) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of last 3 runnings.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-4) trained the winner in 1995 & 2002 but his 4 runners in last 10 years have all been unplaced.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-41, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.



Price


The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 4 of last 6 (including last 3) going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2004.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 (Pivotal fillies do well)
- Dosage Index of around 1.20
- Centre of Distribution of around 0.20
- Had 1 or 2 runs this year
- Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR last time
- Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
- Won over 1M+
- Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
- Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
- Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year
- Trained by Ed Dunlop, Aidan O’Brien or Ralph Beckett.