LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2014

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The Grade 1 Lexus Chase, which takes place on Sunday 28th December, is one of the highlights of Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. It has been won by some of the top chasers of the past 10 years including Denman, Best Mate, the ill-fated Synchronised and last year, by Bobs Worth. In recent years British-trained runners have dominated.





Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-3-7
7yo: 3-5-24
8yo: 4-2-18
9yo: 1-4-19
10yo: 0-2-9
11yo+: 1-0-4
horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-10-49 which compares well to that of horses aged 9+: 2-6-33.
Beef Or Salmon won it for third time as a 9yo and Tidal (as an 11yo) got up late to win in a tight finish in 2012, both winners aged 9+ posted an RPR of 167+ last time.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ on last completed chase start (7 posted RPR of 159+)
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (6 had won a grade 1)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
3 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (7 others were having first course start)
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 8) had run in 4 to 7 chases

Other Races


Previous Year's winner (Bobs Worth): 2123 (1-2-4)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Road To Riches): 123 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 1 (1-0-1)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Lord Windermere): 231 (1-1-3)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Many Clouds): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Topaz Novice chase winner (Carlingford Lough): 3351 (1-0-4)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 13F4654 (1-0-7)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Don Cossack): 3323 (0-3-4)
Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 232 (0-2-3)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Champagne Fever): 224 (0-2-3)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 3 (0-1-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Carlingford Lough): U34 (0-1-3)
John Meagher Memorial Chase winner (Home Farm): 2P47 (0-1-4)
P J Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Ballycasey): 3P (0-0-2)
Killiney Novice Chase winner (Djakadam): 84 (0-0-2)
Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Djakadam): 87 (0-0-2)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 47 (0-0-2)
Record of horses that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: FP6121P172875 (3-2-13)
Record of British-trained runners that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: 1118 (3-0-4)
Record of horses that ran in Hennessy Gold Cup: 16112197 (4-1-8)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Hennessy Gold Cup: 1121 (3-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: 124141 (3-1-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 4P51
4 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup last time, finishing 12P2
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase last time, finishing 236
3 of 4 second season chase winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing F16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 31

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-0-6) won the race in 2007, 2009 & 2012 and Neptune Collonges would have finished 1st or 2nd in 2008 but for falling 2 out.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-1) trained Bobs Worth to win this last year and he may attempt a follow-up success.
Noel Meade (1-0-3) won this in 2010 with Pandorama.
Mouse Morris (0-4-6) trained the winner in 2001 and seen 4 of his last 6 make the places.
Willie Mullins (0-2-12) has never won the race and has only gained 2 from 12 runners since 2004 (including 3 unplaced favourites).
British-trained runners (7-3-18) have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, including 6 of the last 7, from 24.7% of total runners since 2003.

Price


10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-11) have a fair record, won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.53.

Conclusion:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8
- Finished in the first 3 last time out (posting RPR of 159+)
- Ran in last 50 days
- Had run once or twice this season
- Previously run in 4 to 7 chases
- Won over 3M+
- Won a Graded chase (ideally won a grade 1)
- Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March
- Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Trained in Great Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson)
- Priced 8/1 or shorter.