HEROS HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 31st January. A grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 6F, it was won in 2004 by the mighty Baracouda, who shouldered top weight to victory, however that was result was very much out of the norm and most winners in the past 10 renewals have carried lower weights and were far less exposed. The last 3 runnings have been abandoned due to weather.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-4-18
6yo: 4-8-35
7yo: 2-4-33
8yo: 1-5-32
9yo: 2-1-15
10yo+: 0-1-13
7 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. The 3 winners aged 8+ were Baracouda (multiple grade 1 winner), Chief Yeoman (runner-up in grade 1 Triumph Hurdle) and Beshabar (grade 3 winner).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-13 or more: 1-7-45
horses carrying 10-12 or less: 9-16-101
9 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less, the one exception was Baracouda, who won this under top weight.
Top Weights: 3P17449676 (1-2-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 136 or higher: 1-8-44
horses rated 125 to 135: 7-10-74
horses rated 124 or less: 2-5-28
The last 7 winners were officially rated 125 to 135. The only winner rated higher than 135 in last 10 runnings was Baracouda (rated 170), when racing against 8 rivals, who were all racing from out of the handicap.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (exception 5th in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle on New Year's Day)
10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles run
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had run just once)
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles


9 of 10 winners had 2 or 3 previous hurdle wins
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 9 h’cap hurdles)
10 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles
7 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a grade 1)
4 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception placed in handicap hurdles worth 16K+ over 2M 4F+ on both runs that season)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdler
6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 hurdle
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdle with 10 or more runners
7 of 10 winners began career in a NH race (1 exception rated 88 on flat and other 2 had run on flat in France)

Other Races


Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Batavir): 8 (0-0-1)
William Hill Down The App Mares Novice Hurdle winner (A Doll In Milan): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle, finishing P0
2 of 10 winners ran in William Download The App H'cap Hurdle, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F Uttoxeter Novice hurdle earlier that season
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 1F Exeter Novice hurdle during the previous calendar year

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-2-8) has saddled 3 winners & 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 renewals.
Suzy Smith (0-1-2) & David Pipe (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Lucy Wadham (0-0-3), Alan King (0-0-3), Emma Lavelle (0-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) & Oliver Sherwood (0-0-5) have seen their collective 19 runners finish unplaced.

Racing Tactics


5 of 10 winners were held up
5 of 10 winners tracked leaders

Price


7 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting
7 of last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter though 2 of last 3 winners were sent off 10/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.91.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 7 (or a previous graded hurdle winner)
- Finished in first 4 last time
- Posted an RPR of 125+ last time out
- Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (gaining 2 or 3 wins)
- Run in 3 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or less)
- First or Second season hurdler (novices do well)
- Carrying 10-12 or less
- Officially rated 125 to 135
- Won a hurdles race with 10+ runners
- Had first ever start in a point to point, bumper or hurdle (or on flat in France)
- Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (ideally won or placed in a class 1)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls.