The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 4th July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level, and this year it looks likely that both the Epsom Derby winner, Golden Horn, and French Derby winner, New Bay, will take on the older brigade.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-4-23
4yo: 3-10-28
5yo: 5-1-18
6yo+: 0-1-8
5yos have won 5 of last 10 from just 23.4% of total runners.
No horse aged older than 5 has won this race in past 100 years.


Both 3yo winners were trained in Ireland & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.
7 of 8 winners aged 4 or 5 ran at Royal Ascot last time (in Prince of Wales or Queen Anne).

Gender


Mares (0-0-6) have failed to fill a single place despite 4 of their 6 representatives in this being sent off 5/1 or shorter. Kooyonga (1992) & Pebbles (1985) have been the only 2 female winners of the race. Both were 4yos that finished in first 2 in the 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes as 3yos and were placed in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on previous start.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 exceptions ran in a 1M group 1 at Royal Ascot last time)
9 of 10 winner had won a group 1 (exception 2nd in group 1 on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 this year (1 exception hadn't run that year)
5 of 10 winners were having their first course start (4 of 5 others had won over CD)
Since 2000, 3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

Other Races


Previous year's highest finisher to return: 11371 (3-0-5)
Derby winner (Golden Horn): 21 (1-1-2)
Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 2-3-12
Gordon Richard Stakes winner (Western Hymn): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's King Edward VII winner (Eagle Top): 1 (1-0-1)
Beresford Stakes winner (Ol; Man River): 1 (1-0-1)
2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 18 (1-0-2)
Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (Free Eagle): 516 (1-0-3)
Dante Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 226 (0-2-3)
Brigadier Gerrard Stakes winner (Western Hymn): 242 (0-2-3)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 6 (0-0-1)
Feilden Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 45 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Dewhurst winner (Belardo): 47 (0-0-2)
6 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 432214
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 180155
3 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Eclipse Stakes, finishing 273
2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai World Cup, finishing 02
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 41
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 01
All four 3yo winners, since 2000, had finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-3-16) has trained the winner 5 times since 2000.
Michael Stoute (1-3-10) has saddled 2 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds since 2000.
John Gosden (1-1-4) trained Nathaniel to win this in 2012.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-3) last trained the winner in 2004, also saddled runner-up in 2012.
Irish-trained runners (4-4-18) has gained 4 wins and 4 places from 18 runners. If you remove Aidan O’Brien’s runners, the other 2 Irish runners have gained win in 2009 & 2nd in 2014.

Price


9 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting
Prior to Mukhadram’s win at 14/1 last year, the previous 8 winners had all been sent off 7/1 or shorter.
Favourites (4-4-10) have supplied 4 of the last 6 winners however they show a level stakes loss of 1.26 over past 10 years.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Male aged 3 that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby & won a group 1 in 2015 or
- Male aged 4 or 5 that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot last time
- Had 2 to 4 runs in 2015
- Run in last 30 days
- Posted an RPR of 119+ last time
- Has won over 1M 2F (or ran in a 1M group 1 at Royal Ascot last time)
- Has previously won a group 1
- Finished in first 2 in a group 1 in 2015
- Finished in first 5 in Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales last time
- Ran in 2014 Champion Stakes at Ascot
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- From first 4 in the betting.