The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 12th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 15 winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start, however the Epsom Derby has also provided key clues.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 3yos.



Dosage

The average dosage profile (DP) of last 10 winners is 5-2-15-7-1 (29.2pts)

Composite Dosage Index (DI) of last 10 winners is 1.12

Composite Centre Of Distribution (CD) of last 10 winners is 0.233



Gender

Fillies (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 runners since 2005. (2 of 3 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the other was an unbeaten group winner).

From just 22 representatives over the last 30 runnings, fillies have a 59.1% strike rate of hitting the frame having recorded three wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp & User Friendly), seven seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low (2nd G1), Ramruma, Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2) & Talent) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern and Look Here) which is a good return.

Record of group 1 winning fillies: 232462 (0-4-6)



Breeding

8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.8F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo & Mastercraftsman with stamina indexes of 9.9F to 10.0F but both had damsires with stamina index of 11.3F+)

7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s (2 exceptions sired by a winner of a major European 2000 Guineas)

5 of 10 winners were by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare

Progeny of Galileo: 00321872092724435308 (1-7-20)

Progeny of Halling: 6292 (0-2-4)

Progeny of High Chaparral: 27 (0-1-2)

Despite representing 20% of the total runners, progeny of Galileo have managed just 1 win from 20 runners.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season

6 of 10 winners won last time (3 exceptions finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes & other was 4th in Eclipse)

10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 111+ on last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners won their maiden over 1M to 1M 2F (exception won maiden over 7F)

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (exception was 2nd in Derby)

9 of 10 winners' last 2 starts added up to a combined distance of 3 miles or longer (exceptions last 2 runs added to 2M 6F)

8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)



Royal Ascot

Queen's Vase winner (Aloft): 217 (1-1-3)

King Edward VII Stakes winner (Balios): 48 (0-0-2)

Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII Stakes: 2311418880 (3-2-10)

4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 3222

2 of 10 winners ran in Queen's Vase, finishing 31



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 6116261241 (4-2-10)

Gordon Stakes winner (Highalnd Reel): 21103 (2-2-5)

Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 21018103 (3-2-8)

Great Voltigeur winner (Storm The Stars): 513636 (1-2-6)

Voltigeur top finisher: 5310363653 (1-4-10)

Bahrain Trophy winner (Mr Singh): 2317 (1-2-4)

Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Storm The Stars): 9613 (1-1-4)

Wild Duck Norfolk Woodland Retreat EBF Maiden winner (Aloft): 1 (1-0-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Order Of St George): 3 (0-1-1)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Kilimanjaro): 4053 (0-1-4)

Irish Oaks winner (Covert Love): 46 (0-0-2)

Irish St Leger Trial winner (Order Of St George): 54 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 7482

4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 1132

3 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 123

2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in Autumn Stakes, finishing 81

2 of 2 O'Brien-trained winners ran in Gallinule Stakes, finishing 21



Trainers

John Gosden (3-2-12) has won 3 of the last 8 runnings.

Aidan O’Brien (2-4-22) has trained the winner in 2003, 2006 & 2013. His first string has a record of 2-3-10. His 2 winners in past 10 years both ran in Gallinule Stakes.

Ralph Beckett (0-2-2) has saddled 2 fillies in this in past 10 years, both were placed.



Price

No strong trends on prices, 6 of the first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite, however the 5 of last 7 winners have gone off 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.

Favourites (4-5-11) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.03.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.8F

- Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby or won a major European 2000 Guineas

- Dosage Index of approximately 1.12

- Centre Of Distribution of approximately 0.233

- Won their maiden over 1M or further

- Run 3 to 5 times in 2015

- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

- Posted an RPR of 111 or higher in last 2 runs

- Won a group race over 1M 2F to 1M 4F

- Ran in the Epsom Derby

- Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time

- Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII, Gallinule, Queen’s Vase and/or Irish Derby

- Trained by John Gosden, Aidan O’Brien or Ralph Beckett.