12.40 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2)

Paul Nicholls and Alan King have won this race numerous times over the years and the pair look likely to hold all the aces once again. Romain De Senam arrives here on the back of a facile success at Wincanton last time and shapes as the type to appreciate the stiff finish he will find at Cheltenham. The French import accounted for the re-opposing Fingertips at Enghien on his last start for Guillame Macaire and should confirm those placings this time around with the benefit of a run under his belt. He seemingly shows little at home and promises to be a chaser in the future but is entitled to make his mark in this sphere all the same.

However, Alan King has proven time and time again that he is a master handler with juveniles and OCEANE can continue his barnstorming run of form with his first win in pattern company. The strapping three-year-old finished a close-up third behind subsequent St Leger winner Simple Verse on the level at Salisbury on his first run since arriving from France and has carried on in fine fettle since. King landed this contest back in 2006 with Katchit and another win looks firmly on the cards.

Advice

OCEANE – 2pts win @ 7/4 (William Hill, Paddy Power, BetVictor & Skybet)



1.15 Cheltenham – mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Chase

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT is the class act in the field and will take all the beating if taking to fences at the first attempt. He progressed nicely as a novice hurdler and readily despatched World Hurdle winner Cole Harden at Ascot last year. He plied his trade with the upper echelons in the staying hurdle division last campaign and acquitted himself admirably in a trio of runs before opening his account at Grade 1 level with a frighteningly impressive display in the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil. David Pipe landed this contest last year with Kings Palace who dominated from the front and left the remainder of the field trailing in his wake and a similar scenario could well be on the cards this time around.

An honourable mention must go to Vintage Vinnie who fell at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October when still well in contention. That came on the back of a ridiculously good display at Worcester where he waltzed home by an outrageous 29 lengths. Upswing finished runner-up to him that day and subsequently landed a similar event by another wide margin. He likes to be up with the pace and could give the Pipe inmate most to think about.

Another not without a chance is Twelve Roses who accounted for impressive Wetherby winner Southfield Royale on his chase debut after over 18 months off the track. He undoubtedly has ability but injuries have plagued him during his career and his wellbeing must be taken on trust.

Advice

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT – 2pts win @ 13/8 (William Hill)



1.50 Cheltenham – Murphy Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

This is perennially a tough race to win although Monbeg Dude is the only real outsider to have triumphed in recent years. Sausalito Sunrise always promised to be a talented chaser and he began to show that last season with a couple of decent placed efforts behind Kings Palace at Cheltenham. He was tracking subsequent Gold Cup winner Coneygree and in the process of running a big race in the Grade 1 Feltham before taking a heavy fall that ended his campaign. He was well-fancied but endured a somewhat inauspicious start to this campaign when pulling-up at Chepstow but he can only come on for that and must be high on any shortlist with the cobwebs now blown away.

Sego Success improved markedly as a novice last season and was heavily-backed to land the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He ran respectably but possibly found four miles too much to handle in the early days of his career. He tends to strip fitter for his first run of the campaign but made an encouraging start when fifth in the same Chepstow contest in which Sausalito Sunrise was pulled-up. He does have a bit to prove but tends to excel at this time of the year and is well and truly in the reckoning.

That being said, preference is for COGRY who was still in contention when coming to grief four from home in the Scottish National. He finished a length behind Sego Success at Cheltenham but promises to have a great deal of improvement in him and could well progress past his closely-matched rival. The six-year-old has always been very well thought of by connections and this is evident as he has been pitched into pattern company both in bumpers and hurdle as well as over fences. He also has the benefit of talented conditional Ryan Hatch in the saddle who takes off a valuable 3lb.

Advice

COGRY – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365)



2.25 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap

One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but one of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof having won off a mark of 159 three years ago. In terms of this year’s field it eliminates the top eight as they appear on the racecard (from Sound Investment down to Double Ross).

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. They account for just under half of the field this time around with some of the main names including Cocktails At Dawn, Present View and Kings Palace. Of the other four races in the last decade two have gone the way of six-year-olds which is a positive for supporters of Irish Cavalier.

Weight can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this and the Paddy Power is no exception. Of the last ten renewals only two horses have carried more than 11st 5lb to victory which confirms that Sound Investment down to Cocktails at Dawn are up against it.

Strong form on their most recent start is something that always seems to crop up as a positive in these sorts of races and the Paddy Power is no different. Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that just under half of this year’s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.

In terms of trainers, there are three yards which have tasted success more than once in the last decade, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2006 & 2013), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008 & 2010) and the Pipe yard (2005 & 2011). It is therefore worth taking a second look at runners from the yards above.

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact seven of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. David Pipe’s Kings Palace currently leads the market with Boondooma and Irish Cavalier also available at single figure prices.



Shortlist

KINGS PALACE – 3/6

Double Ross – 3/6

Buywise – 3/6

Present View – 3/6



Conclusion

It isn’t often that you don’t get a standout in terms of the trends but we appear to have something of a stalemate between four here and all of them have their own obstacles to overcome.

KINGS PALACE gets the narrow preference on account of his yard’s record in the race as well as the strong record of fancied horses in the race in the past. He has won at this meeting for the last two years and if anything his form is strongest at this time of year, with his few disappointments having come in the Spring. He is a high-class graded chaser in my eyes and considering his relatively high handicap mark he gets weight from a few of his rivals here. He loves it here at Cheltenham and in a wide open heat, it is hard to look past the market leader.

Double Ross is no stranger to success here at Cheltenham and has won twice over course and distance as well as finishing third in the JLT Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014. It is fair to say that he lost his way a little last season but he seemed to be back to his best when chasing home Pendra on his return to action at the end of last month. He should benefit from that run and it would be no surprise to see him outrun his sizeable odds.

Last year’s renewal is also represented with several runners returning for more but Present View and Buywise fare best when it comes to the trends. Both have had runs to get them ready for this early season assignment and having not been beaten far in the race last year, there is no reason why they can’t go well again this time around.

Advice

KINGS PALACE – 1pt win @ 7/1 (bet365, Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes)



3.00 Cheltenham – Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)

BATAVIR hails from the David Pipe yard that has taken this contest in two of the last three seasons and can continue Pond House’s fine record. He boasts a similar profile as last year’s winner Katkeau in that he’d only had a handful of starts in Britain having made the journey over from France. The six-year-old notched up a quick-fire double with wins at Ascot and Wincanton in December and may have paid the price for those exertions when disappointing at Doncaster in February. He has had a summer break now and should return refreshed so is fully expected to run a big race.

Following his recent Newton Abbot success, Milan Bound must be given a chance. He showed a great deal of grit to fight off the opposition and stayed on well for a narrow victory. He has only been raised a generous 1lb by the handicapper so enters this contest on rather favourable terms. Stamina is clearly his forte which will definitely come into play with the stiff finish to contend with.

Sir Mangan is a most interesting contender and arrives in fine form having recorded a cosy success at Fontwell at the beginning of October. He seems adept over both hurdles and fences and whilst the Southern National on Sunday had been mooted as a possible landing spot, his immediate future seems to lie over the smaller obstacles. He will benefit from a strongly-run affair, which seems likely here, and will be one to look out for as they turn for home.

Advice

BATAVIR – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)