The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 13th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 9 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles races prior to landing this, with 4 of the last 6 being novice hurdlers.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2004-2015):





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 5-12-64
6yo: 4-7-63
7yo: 0-1-38
8yo: 0-4-24
9yo: 1-2-15
10yo+: 0-3-10


5 & 6 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10, the last 9, from just under 59% of total runners. The last winner aged older than 6 was Geos in 2004, when winning the race for a second time as a 9yo.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-18-106
horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-11-110
The last 5 winners were allotted 10-8 to 11-2. The only 3 winners, to carry over 11-2 in the past 20 years, had all won a handicap hurdle at class 2 or higher (posting RPR of 150+) last time out.
Top weight: 20P20B7500 (0-2-10)
horses carrying a penalty (0-3-9) won this in 2002 and have seen 3 of their last 9 make the frame.

Official Ratings


horses rated 144 or more: 4-7-44
horses rated 131 to 143: 4-19-136
horses rated 130 or lower: 2-3-36
2 of 4 winners rated 144+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while the other 2 had been placed in a graded NH race.
All 3 winners rated 132 or lower were trained by Gary Moore.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 3 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (2 exceptions had run 6 times)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 10 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles


9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle


9 of 10 winners (last 9) were first or second season hurdlers (exception was Geos winning it for a second time)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 22K+ (4 exceptions were novice hurdlers)

Other Races


Betfred Scoop6Soccer Novice Hurdle winner (Agrapart): 10 (1-0-2)
Feel The Rush at Betfair Novice Hurdle winner (Qewy): 4 (0-1-1)
AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle winner (Petite Parisienne): 802 (0-1-3)
The Ladbroke winner (Sternrubin): P30 (0-1-3)
Gerry Feilden winner (Sternrubin): 0 (0-0-1)
Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Cheltenian): 0 (0-0-1)
Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner (War Sound): P6 (0-0-2)
Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Winner Massagot): 065 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot William Hill Handicap Hurdle, finishing 09
2 of 4 novice hurdle winners ran in Colts & Fillies Club Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 5 winners aged 5 ran in Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 19
1 winner in 2015.0147re: 4-7-44ed finisher in last 10 runnings. 3 renewals. 2 of last 3 winners of Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle, to run in this, have won it.

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (1-3-16) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled a placed finisher in past 3 renewals.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2010 & 2014 respectively.
Philip Hobbs (0-5-12) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 8 of his 12 runners finishing in the top six, 5 getting placed, including a placed finisher in last 2 years.
David Pipe (0-5-14) has seen 5 of his last 10 runners make the placed.
Alan King (0-3-11) has saddled 3 placed finisher in last 10 runnings.
John Ferguson (0-1-3) & Brian Ellison (0-1-5) have both saddled the runner-up in this in past 5 runnings.
Irish trained runners (1-2-22) have provided 2 of last 11 winners from 11.9% of total runners. Last 2 Irish winners ran in Coral.ie H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-7) has seen his last 11 runners finish unplaced.

Running Style


6 of 10 winners were prominent throughout
2 of 10 winners were settled in mid division
2 of 10 winners were settled in rear

Price


No strong trend on prices, 3 of last 6 winners were first or second favourite while 6 of the last 10 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007, 33/1 winner in 2014 & a 20/1 winner in 2015.
Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 4.75.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
- Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
- Posted career high RPR in last 3 starts
- Allotted 10-8 to 11-2
- First or second season hurdler
- Run 10 times or less over hurdles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 1)
- Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or having first run in a handicap)
- Finished in first 3 in Jumeirah December H’cap Hurdle or Colts & Fillies Club Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in Coral.ie or Steel Plate and Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs.