AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2016
The highlight for many of the national hunt calendar, the Crabbie’s Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 9th April. It’s always a fiercely competitive cavalry charge, you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 0-0-23
8yo: 1-5-62
9yo: 2-10-104
10yo: 4-8-107
11yo: 3-6-61
12yo: 0-1-28
13yo+: 0-0-12
Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12
In the past 10 years all 39 of 40 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11
All 3 winners aged 8 in last 30 years have finished in first 5 in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season.
The last 2 horses aged older than 11 to make the places have been Amberleigh House (1st 2004) and Oscar Time (4th 2013), both were previously placed in the Grand National.
All 25 horses aged younger than 8 have been unplaced and only 1 of 40 horses aged 12+ have made the frame.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-2-36
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-7-85
horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-193
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-85
horses carrying 11-0 or more have won 5 of 10 but represented just 30.3% of total runners.
The last 4 horses that managed to make the places, carrying 11-7+, had won previous year’s race or finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup on previous start.
9 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights, exception Auroras Encore was allotted 9-13.
8 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Top Weight: 2900UF3FPUP (0-2-11)
Official Ratings
horses rated 149 or higher: 4-9-114
horses rated 136 to 148: 6-21-274
horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-11
In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners, with 23 of 28 places since 2009 going to horses rated 143+.
In last 7 years
horses rated 143 or higher: 6-17-185
horses rated 142 or lower: 1-4-94
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-23-241
French bred: 3-3-86
British bred: 0-4-64
Other: 0-0-8
Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges & Pineau De Re followed up the feat in 2012 & 2014.
Irish bred horses have won 7 of the last 10 and filled in 30 of 40 places (75%) from approximately 60.4% of the runners.
Old Vic has sired 24 National runners in 6 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-4-24. He has sired one of the first 3 home in 5 of last 7 renewals, in which he’s been represented.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (1 exception 6th in Gold Cup, another 8th in Midlands National)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had run since National weights were announced
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season (Exception was Many Clouds, who had won 3)
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+ and other had won the Ulster Grand National)
9 of 10 had won a chase worth 29K+
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since 1st September
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exception had won 11)
8 of 10 winners had contested 1 to 9 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers
The 3 second season chasers to have won this in past 10 years were Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice, Pineau De Re, who won the Ulster Grand National as a novice and Many Clouds, who won Hennessy Gold up on 8th chase start)
10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) were currently or had previously been officially rated 148 or higher
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+ at a left handed track
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ in a chase over 3M 4F+ (exceptions Ballabriggs & Many Clouds had not run over furthe than 3M 3F)
6 of 10 winners (both Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March
Course form
Previous Year's winner (Many Clouds): 2620360 (0-3-7)
Record of placed finishers from previous GN: PF09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-19)
Becher Chase winner (Highland Lodge): PPPFUPF60 (0-0-9)
Only 3 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences
Only 1 of 10 winners had won over the National fences. The last 2 winners, that had won over the fences, did so in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous
2 of 10 winners had run in the previous season's Grand National, finishing F0
4 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (2 in GN, 1 in Mildmay Novice Chase & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 2 exceptions finished in first 6 in Scottish National, 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did race the previous season
Other Nationals
Welsh National winner (Mountainous): P (0-0-1)
Kerry National winner (Rogue Angel): PF (0-0-2)
Previous season's Welsh National winner (Emperor's Choice): FF7 (0-0-3)
Two season's previous Irish National winner (Shutthefrontdoor): 6P75P (0-0-5)
Highest placed finisher from previous Scottish National: 7U16U1U (2-0-7)
Record of first 9 from previous Scottish National: P7PU415U811PU (3-1-13)
5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in either the Irish, Welsh, Scottish or Aintree Grand Nationals
3 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 1P2
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing 962
Other Races
Ryman Stationery Handicap Chase winner (Aachen): F1U97 (1-0-5)
Kim Muir Challenge Cup winner (Cause Of Causes): 2 (0-1-1)
Cash Out In Running with Betfair Handicap Chase winner (Vieux Lion Rouge): 04 (0-1-2)
32Red Handicap Chase winner (Bishops Road): FF (0-0-2)
Betfair Home Of Price Rush H'cap Chase winner (Emperor's Choice): 0F (0-0-2)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Bishops Road): PP (0-0-2)
Irish Times Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase winner (Knock House): 06 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): FP (0-0-2)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Boston Bob): PUU6 (0-0-4)
Watch Racing Live on BetBright.com H'cap Chase winner (Perfect Candidate): PFF00 (0-0-5)
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing P1
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Kelso Premier Chase last time, finishing 25
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Pertemps Network H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing P3
2 of 7 British-trained winners (2 of last 3) ran in Summer Plate, finishing 00
Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners raced prominently
3 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
2 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:
Jonjo O’Neill (1-3-21), Paul Nicholls (1-2-36), David Pipe (1-1-24), Oliver Sherwood (1-0-2), Richard Newland (1-0-3), Gordon Elliot (1-0-9) and Donald McCain (1-0-16).
Fergal O’Brien (0-2-2) has saddled Alvarado to place in last 2 renewals.
Willie Mullins (0-2-23) won this in 2005 but has seen just 2 of his 23 runners since then make the frame.
Rebecca Curtis (0-1-3), Peter Bowen (0-1-9) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-11) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Nicky Henderson (0-0-12) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-24) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher in past 10 runnings from a combined 36 runners.
2 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (2-11-109) from approximately 27.3% of total runners. Bobbyjo, in 1999, became first Irish winner since 1975. Between 1999 & 2007, Irish-trained runners won 6 of 9 runnings. Since 2008, Irish-trained runners have a record of 0-8-90.
Price
In the past 10 years there have been some surprise winners, with two 33/1 winners in 2007 & 2012, a 100/1 winner in 2009, a 66/1 winner in 2013 and 25/1 winners in last 2 years.
Favourites (2-5-17) have gained 2 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 to 11 (or 8yo that finished in first 5 in Hennessy Gold Cup)
- Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight
- Officially rated 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)
- Irish or French bred
- Respect horses sired by Old Vic
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start
- Posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start
- Won no more than one chase this season
- Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+
- Won over 3M+
- Run 3 to 6 times since September 2015 & run since 16th February 2016
- Run in at least 10 chases (winning at least 3)
- Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)
- Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+
- Has run over hurdles in 2016
- Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National
- Finished in first 9 in 2015 Scottish National
- Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup
- Finished in first 5 in Totepoolliveinfo.com Premier Chase or Pertemps Network H’cap Hurdle last time.
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