The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 3rd June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in recent years with Look Here taking the prize at 33/1 in 2008 and Qualify at 50/1 in 2015.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


Irish bred: 5-6-58
British bred: 4-11-59
American bred: 1-3-10
German bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (exception by a group 2 winner)
3 of last 4 winners were sired by a winner of the Epsom Derby.
Pivotal progeny: 1330 (1-2-4)

Dosage Profile


Composite Dosage profile: 4.6-2.9-14.5-4.3-1.7
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.11
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.16

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M as 2yos
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time (exception yet to run over further than a mile)
5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other unplaced in Irish 1000 Guineas)
8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time (all 10 winners posted RPR of 98+ last time)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (1 exception finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 3 were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)
All 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners made their debuts at Curragh over 7F or 1M as 2yos

2yo Form


Loder EBF Fillies Race winner (How High The Moon): 4 (0-0-1)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Minding): 55 (0-0-2)
Fillies' Mile winner (Minding): 647 (0-0-3)
May Hill Stakes winner (Turret Rocks): 645 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Federation of Bloodstock Agents EBF Fillies' Maiden, finishing 11

3yo Form


Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Skiffle): 2271660 (1-2-7)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Somehow): 610052704 (1-1-9)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Seventh Heaven): 9029420 (0-2-7)
1000 Guineas winner Minding): 442 (0-1-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in Pretty Polly Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Blue Wind, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-5-32) has won the race three times in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 25% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-3-10, his last 2 winners were sent off 20/1 & 50/1, he has also saddled placed finishers at 20/1 & 25/1 since 2007.
Ralph Beckett (2-1-9) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
David Elsworth’s last runner in this was 2nd in 2005.
Jim Bolger (0-0-3) & Mick Channon (0-0-5) has failed to saddled a placed finisher in last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 3-8-42, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-3-10.



Price


The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 5 of last 8 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 3.50 since 2005.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sired by a winner of a group 1 (Pivotal fillies do well)
- Dosage Index of approximately 1.11
- Centre of Distribution of approximately 0.16
- Had 1 or 2 runs this year
- Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR of 98+ last time
- Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
- Won over 1M+
- Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
- Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
- Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year
- Trained by Ralph Beckett or an Aidan O’Brien outsider.