The 151st Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 25th June. The Epsom Derby winner, Harzand, looks to set to line up and attempt to deny Aidan O’Brien a ninth winner in the past 11 years, he has saddled the first 3 home in 4 of the last 10 years. Jack Hobbs became the first British-trained winner in past 20 years, when taking this in 2015.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos


Breeding
Irish bred: 5-11-56
British bred: 4-4-23
German bred: 1-1-2
American bred: 0-1-6
French bred: 0-1-5
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 10.6F+
8 of last 11 winners were sired by Galileo or Montjeu, and 2013 winner was by Teofilo (son of Galileo)
Galileo progeny: 4-3-22
Sea The Stars progeny: 0-1-2

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd over 7F to 9F on debut as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners won over 7F+ as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 30 days
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 115+ on 1 or both of last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 7 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (exceptions were Jack Hobbs, 2nd in Epsom Derby on previous run and Frozen Fire in 2008 who was a slightly fortuitous winner)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+

2yo Form
Beresford Stakes winner (Port Douglas): 35 (0-1-2)
Eyrefield Stakes winner (Moonlight Magic): 439 (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 6816
2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium de Saint Cloud, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Autumn Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Trial, finishing 21

3yo Form
Epsom Derby winner (Harzand): 151 (2-0-3)
Record of horses placed in the Epsom Derby: 41332415415822 (3-5-14)
Derrinstown Stud Trial winner (Moonlight Magic): 121235 (2-2-6)
Chester Vase winner (US Army Ranger): 12153 (2-1-5)
Ballysax winner (Harzand): 5135 (1-0-4)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby last time, finishing 35022112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 2122
2 of 10 winners won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
2 of 10 winners ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Chester Vase, finishing 11
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a recognised Derby Trial (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas)

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (8-10-36) has trained 8 of last 10 winners of the Irish Derby. The record of his first string in past years is 6-1-10.
Jim Bolger (1-0-7) saddled Trading Leather to win this in 2013, his second time winning the race, his first was St Jovite in 1992.
Dermot Weld (0-1-6) trained Grey Swallow to win this in 2004 but has only gained 1 place from 6 runners in past 10 years.
British-trained runners (1-3-19) had failed to win the race this century before they accounted for the 1-2 in 2015.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 & show a £1 level stakes profit of £1.46 since 2005.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 10.6F+
- Ideally sired by Galileo or by a son of Montjeu or Galileo
- Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
- Posted an RPR of 115+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Had 4 to 7 career starts (running 2 to 3 times in 2016)
- Won a group race
- Won over 1M 2F+
- First 2 in a Derby trial (ideally Derrinstown, Dante or Chester Vase)
- Finished in first 2 in Epsom Derby last time out
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1)