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    Default GOODWOOD CUP TRENDS 2016

    The Goodwood Cup is the big race on day 3 of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, on Thursday 28th July. A group 2 run over 2 miles for horses age 3 or older, 8 of last 10 winners had run in the Ascot Gold Cup or Princess Of Wales’ Stakes on their previous outing and horses carrying a penalty have done well.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    3yo: 0-1-3
    4yo: 3-6-28
    5yo: 3-7-33
    6yo: 1-1-18
    7yo+: 3-5-33
    No strong trends on age.

    Gender
    Fillies & mares (1-0-3) have gained 1 win from 3 runners. Allegretto took this in 2007 but Estimate, who was favourite in 2014, trailed home last.

    Breeding
    8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F+ (2 exceptions by Danehill and son of Danehill, Dansili)
    Progeny of Galileo: 01P3530 (1-2-7)
    Progeny of Duke Of Marmalade: 1 (1-0-1)
    Progeny of Dubawi: 4226 (0-2-4)

    Weight
    horses carrying a group 1 penalty: 2-2-5
    horses carrying a group 2 penalty: 1-2-3
    Carrying a penalty has not stopped several horses from winning this. Yeats twice defied a group 1 penalty to win this, and all 4 horses to carrying a group 2 penalty have made the frame (2 won and 2 place).

    Recent Form
    8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 time that year
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (exception 9th in Ascot Gold Cup)
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)
    7 of 10 winners won a class 1 race that season (3 exceptions placed in a group 1 or 2 that season)
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1 (2 exceptions were group winners who had yet to run in a group 1)
    9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had finished 2nd in both English and Irish St Legers)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Big Orange): 03 (0-1-2)
    Princess Of Wales Stakes winner (Big Orange): 11 (2-0-2)
    Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Sheikhzayedroad): 21 (1-1-2)
    Doncaster Cup winner (Pallasator): 1 (1-0-1)
    Henry II Stakes winner (Pallasator): 333 (0-3-3)
    March Stakes winner (The Twisler): 2 (0-1-1)
    Mallard Stakes winner (Curbyourenthusiasm): 3 (0-1-1)
    Northumberland Plate winner (Antiquarium): 52 (0-1-2)
    Queen Alexandra Stakes winner (Commissioned): 56067 (0-0-5)
    Esher Stakes winner (Sandro Botticelli): 644990 (0-0-6)
    5 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Gold Cup last time, finishing 19123
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish St Leger, finishing 413
    3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Princess Of Wales' Stakes last time, finishing 2d11
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Dubai Gold Cup, finishing 32
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Nad Al Sheba Trophy, finishing 21
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Prix Royal Oak, finishing 38
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Nad Al Sheba Trophy, finishing 32
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 41
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Henry II Stakes, finishing 54

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 7-19-105
    Irish trained runners: 3-0-8
    German trained: 0-1-1
    French trained runners: 0-0-1
    Aidan O’Brien (2-0-4) has won this twice with Yeats (2006 & 2008).
    Michael Bell (1-1-2) won this with Big Orange in 2015 and saddled 33/1 third in 2009.
    Amanda Perrett (0-2-6) has seen 2 of her 7 runners make the places.
    Mark Johnston (0-0-4) trained the 1-2 in 2004 but has seen his 4 runners in last years all finish unplaced.

    Racing Tactics
    5 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)
    3 of 10 winners were held up in midfield
    2 of 10 winners were held up in rear

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below and favourites do well.
    Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 runnings and show a £1 level stakes profit of £4.44.

    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Sired by a horse with stamina index of 10.6F or higher (ideally by Halling, Galileo or Monsun)
    - horses carrying a penalty have done well
    - Run 1 to 3 times in 2016
    - Posted an RPR of 114+ last time
    - Won a class 1 race this year (or placed in group 1 or 2)
    - Previously finished in first 3 in group 1 (or group 2 winner)
    - Has won over 1M 6F or further
    - Finished in first 3 in Ascot Gold Cup or Princess of Wales’ Stakes last time
    - Finished in first 4 in Irish Leger, Doncaster Cup in 2015 and/or 2016 Henry II Stakes
    - Finished in first 3 in Dubai Gold Cup and/or Nad Al Sheba Trophy this year
    - Priced 8/1 or shorter (favourite does well)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (24th July 2016)  


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