The Goodwood Cup is the big race on day 3 of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, on Thursday 28th July. A group 2 run over 2 miles for horses age 3 or older, 8 of last 10 winners had run in the Ascot Gold Cup or Princess Of Wales’ Stakes on their previous outing and horses carrying a penalty have done well.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 0-1-3
4yo: 3-6-28
5yo: 3-7-33
6yo: 1-1-18
7yo+: 3-5-33
No strong trends on age.
Gender
Fillies & mares (1-0-3) have gained 1 win from 3 runners. Allegretto took this in 2007 but Estimate, who was favourite in 2014, trailed home last.
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F+ (2 exceptions by Danehill and son of Danehill, Dansili)
Progeny of Galileo: 01P3530 (1-2-7)
Progeny of Duke Of Marmalade: 1 (1-0-1)
Progeny of Dubawi: 4226 (0-2-4)
Weight
horses carrying a group 1 penalty: 2-2-5
horses carrying a group 2 penalty: 1-2-3
Carrying a penalty has not stopped several horses from winning this. Yeats twice defied a group 1 penalty to win this, and all 4 horses to carrying a group 2 penalty have made the frame (2 won and 2 place).
Recent Form
8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 time that year
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (exception 9th in Ascot Gold Cup)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)
7 of 10 winners won a class 1 race that season (3 exceptions placed in a group 1 or 2 that season)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1 (2 exceptions were group winners who had yet to run in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had finished 2nd in both English and Irish St Legers)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Big Orange): 03 (0-1-2)
Princess Of Wales Stakes winner (Big Orange): 11 (2-0-2)
Nad Al Sheba Trophy winner (Sheikhzayedroad): 21 (1-1-2)
Doncaster Cup winner (Pallasator): 1 (1-0-1)
Henry II Stakes winner (Pallasator): 333 (0-3-3)
March Stakes winner (The Twisler): 2 (0-1-1)
Mallard Stakes winner (Curbyourenthusiasm): 3 (0-1-1)
Northumberland Plate winner (Antiquarium): 52 (0-1-2)
Queen Alexandra Stakes winner (Commissioned): 56067 (0-0-5)
Esher Stakes winner (Sandro Botticelli): 644990 (0-0-6)
5 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Gold Cup last time, finishing 19123
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish St Leger, finishing 413
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Princess Of Wales' Stakes last time, finishing 2d11
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Dubai Gold Cup, finishing 32
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Nad Al Sheba Trophy, finishing 21
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Prix Royal Oak, finishing 38
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Nad Al Sheba Trophy, finishing 32
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 41
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Henry II Stakes, finishing 54
Trainers
British trained runners: 7-19-105
Irish trained runners: 3-0-8
German trained: 0-1-1
French trained runners: 0-0-1
Aidan O’Brien (2-0-4) has won this twice with Yeats (2006 & 2008).
Michael Bell (1-1-2) won this with Big Orange in 2015 and saddled 33/1 third in 2009.
Amanda Perrett (0-2-6) has seen 2 of her 7 runners make the places.
Mark Johnston (0-0-4) trained the 1-2 in 2004 but has seen his 4 runners in last years all finish unplaced.
Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)
3 of 10 winners were held up in midfield
2 of 10 winners were held up in rear
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below and favourites do well.
Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 runnings and show a £1 level stakes profit of £4.44.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 10.6F or higher (ideally by Halling, Galileo or Monsun)
- horses carrying a penalty have done well
- Run 1 to 3 times in 2016
- Posted an RPR of 114+ last time
- Won a class 1 race this year (or placed in group 1 or 2)
- Previously finished in first 3 in group 1 (or group 2 winner)
- Has won over 1M 6F or further
- Finished in first 3 in Ascot Gold Cup or Princess of Wales’ Stakes last time
- Finished in first 4 in Irish Leger, Doncaster Cup in 2015 and/or 2016 Henry II Stakes
- Finished in first 3 in Dubai Gold Cup and/or Nad Al Sheba Trophy this year
- Priced 8/1 or shorter (favourite does well)
Social Networking Bookmarks