2.00 Doncaster – At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2)




Not exactly a vintage renewal of the Champagne Stakes but there look to be some potentially smart performers in the six runner-field, with William Haggas’ Rivet heading the market. The Fastnet Rock colt showed plenty of inexperience on his debut at Ascot but he improved for that run to win the Convivial Maiden at York next time. He picked up impressively in the closing stages to draw clear and win by three and a quarter lengths and it is little surprise that connections have opted to step him into Group company now. It is hard to get a handle on the form but it is a little concerning that three of the horses who finished behind him have been beaten since. I don’t think it wise to take that too literally as he was a ready winner on the day but I do think he is short enough at 11/10 and is worth taking on.


Instead it may be best to side with THUNDER SNOW who was last seen when finishing a close second in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. This looks just about the best form on offer having split War Decree and Boynton on that occasion and for me, he should be favourite for this contest. The one concern would be that we haven’t seen him since then and the sickness that Saeed Bin Suroor’s stable has suffered with has been well-documented in recent weeks. However, the yard have had runners in the last couple of weeks and have been amongst the winners so I don’t see any reason to doubt this colt’s wellbeing for this assignment. The stable have won this race twice in the last decade and I fancy this Helmet colt to make it three on Saturday.


However, this is far from a two-horse race and a case can also be made for Majeste who got off the mark at the second attempt at Newbury in July. Following that success, his trainer Richard Hannon indicated that they would work back from the National Stakes, however as that is on Sunday it would seem that this race has been chosen instead. That could be down to the fact that he hasn’t run since July but his trainer believes that he will improve for the step up to seven furlongs and this stable also have an enviable record in the race.


Last year’s winning stable of Charlie Appleby are also represented as D’Bai bids to follow up his narrow success at Newmarket at the end of July. He was all out to hold on from a promising newcomer on that occasion and that is perhaps why connections have reached for the cheekpieces for the first time. He has plenty of Group 1 entries later in the season and whilst he will need to step forward from his maiden, it is still early days and there should be further improvement to come.
Even the two outsiders of the field can’t be totally ruled out as Tommy Taylor was far from disgraced when fourth behind his stablemate in the Acomb last time. This looks a tougher contest but it took him a while to get going on that occasion and he will need to be sharper to figure here.


John Ryan’s Grey Britain also defied odds of 50/1 to finish a good fifth in the Gimcrack last time, leading early on before dropping away in the closing stages. I think a step up to seven furlongs should suit as he just couldn’t quicken up as well as the main protagonists and he can run better than his sizeable odds suggest here.




MY Advice




THUNDER SNOW – 1pt win @ 11/4 (bet365, Ladbrokes)







2.35 Doncaster – Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)




The Portland Handicap can often be one of the most competitive races of the racing calendar and this year’s renewal is no exception. Hopefully the trends will help us solve the puzzle and it is therefore little surprise that horses arriving here in form have tended to do well in recent years. In fact six of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fifth on their most recent outing including five of the last seven winners. Exactly half of the field sit on the right side of this trend with some of those missing out including the likes of Double Up, Red Pike and Shamshon.


In terms of age, there is no doubt that the five-year-olds are the ones to follow having accounted for six winners in the last decade. A good sign for the sextet of five-year-olds in this year’s line-up (Double Up, Red Pike, Lexington Abbey, Shamshon, Highland Acclaim and Mukaynis). I also feel obliged to mention the recent poor records of three-year-olds, whose last victory came courtesy of Compton Banker in 2000. Therefore the sole three-year-old in this year’s field Mont Kiara will be hoping for a change of fortune this time around.


The affect of the draw and the reasons for it are subjects which are widely debated among racing circles. However, in terms of numbers there is no doubt that in this case it has paid off to be drawn high, with horses drawn 12 or above having landed seven of the last nine renewals. In a field of 22, this means that just less than half of the field are drawn on the ‘right’ side including the likes of Highland Acclaim, Judicial and Confessional.


Weight can often play an important part in races such as this one and in the main, horses with lower weights have tended to run well over the years. 9st 5lb appears to be the cut-off point as only three recent winners had carried more than that to victory. Of this year’s field that eliminates the top five as they appear on the racecard, that’s from Double Up down to Bowson Fred.


Closely linked to weight is the official rating of each horse and we can cut down the field a little more when we consider that seven of the last ten winners were rated between 95 and 100. Applying that to this year’s field gives us the ten horses from Pipers Note down to Captain Colby as well as the three-year-old Mont Kiara.
The final factor to consider is the betting and with only two winning favourites in the last decade, this is not a race in which taking a short price is prudent. Also with three 20/1 winners in recent years it also looks like a good race to take a chance on one at a bigger price. At the time of writing Captain Colby is the favourite at around 8/1 but with the market likely to fluctuate before the off it is best to keep an open mind.


Shortlist


RED PIKE – 5/6


Judicial – 5/6


Soie D’Leau – 5/6


Highland Acclaim – 5/6



MY PREDICTION




When we take all of the trends into account all of the twenty-two runners miss at least one of the trends but the one who comes out best is RED PIKE. Bryan Smart’s five-year-old won over six furlongs at Doncaster last August and has been running well of late, suggesting it might not be long before he finds his way into the Winner’s Enclosure. He misses the form trend having finished eighth last time, however it is worth bearing in mind that was in the Stewards’ Cup and he was only beaten just less than three lengths at the line. He was only collared late on that occasion so the drop back to five and a half furlongs should suit and with the Smart team in fine form at present, I think he can run a big race here.


Judicial also makes the shortlist having got back to winning ways under a patient ride from Graham Lee last time at Chester. The strong early pace suited the four-year-old and he quickened up well in the closing stages to win with a length to spare. He just misses out on the full house on the age trend but it is worth noting that four-year-olds have taken two of the last three renewals. He is not the easiest of customers to predict but he is talented and if things fall right for him, he shouldn’t be too far away.


Kristin Stubbs’ Soie D’Leau is another who arrives in winning form, having got the better of Confessional at Haydock last weekend. This race was nominated as his target immediately afterwards and despite a 4lb rise in the weights, it is hard to rule him out. His trainer believes the extra half furlong will suit and he could run well at a bigger price.


The final member of the shortlist is Highland Acclaim who was fifth in the race last year, albeit off a 7lb higher mark. David O’Meara’s five-year-old struggled for much of last season but he ended a losing run of over two years when winning at Epsom at the end of August. On his best form he still looks well-handicapped and if he is on a going day then he should be right in the mix.




MY Advice




RED PIKE – 1pt e/w @ 18/1(bet365, William Hill)







3.10 Doncaster – Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2)




Far from a vintage renewal, the big-hitters seem to have shunned this Group 2 which could leave it in the lap of recent Hungerford Stakes scorer RICHARD PANKHURST. The lightly-raced four-year-old had looked out of sorts in his pair of runs earlier in the campaign but travelled like the winner throughout at Newbury before readily asserting to deny Home of The Brave by a length. He has always had a high level of ability but it’s been getting him to the track fit that has been the issue and he eventually seems to be back to the level he showed when destroying the field in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot two seasons back. He does have a penalty to carry for his latest success but with the promise of more to come now he is back firing, 3lb shouldn’t be enough to see him reeled in by the field here.


Fellow Godolphin runner Toormore is another who has to concede weight to the majority of the field due to his win in the bet365 Mile at the beginning of the campaign. He has remained in decent nick all campaign but has shown his frailties up against more progressive rivals and it may just be that he has to play second fiddle to the up-and-coming challengers at this stage of his career. Nevertheless, he has some of the best form on show having finished in the frame in both the Queen Anne and the Sussex Stakes this year and shouldn’t be far away.


The Irish have landed two of the last three renewals of the Park Stakes and Aidan O’Brien has a pair of representatives to try and keep up their good recent record. Cougar Mountain would look to hold his best chance on paper on the back of his runners-up effort in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at the Curragh a month ago. He has proven consistent rather than spectacular though and will likely have to settle for only minor honours at best. Seamie Heffernan’s mount The Happy Prince is an interesting contender having found a purple patch of form recently. The four-year-old finished second in the Listed Abergwaun Stakes at Tipperary over five furlongs just over a fortnight ago before running out an impressive winner of a Naas minor event last week. Connections have always thought that he had something better to offer but he still has a lot to find here and steps back up to seven furlongs despite never having won over that far before.


Breton Rock and Adaay are very closely matched on their 1-2 in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket back in June. The former finished third in last year’s contest behind Limato and has largely held his form well since. He does have a below-par effort to overcome in the Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes at Haydock last Saturday though. The latter has bounced back to form recently and was a solid fourth in the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in July. However, he has now gone over a year without getting his head in front and the frame may again be the best he can hope for. Both horses chances would be enhanced if the ground was to turn soft.


An interesting contender is Buckstay who has progressed through the handicap ranks to Group company only recently. The six-year-old finished close-up in the Victoria Cup, Wokingham and Bunbury Cup earlier in the campaign before running a blinder to finish fourth behind Dutch Connection in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. That is likely his level though a recent confidence booster in a Chelmsford conditions event can only enhance his chances.




MY Advice




RICHARD PANKHURST – 1pt win @ 2/1 (General)








3.45 Doncaster – Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1)




It’s the final classic of the season and while we’d be hard-pushed to rival the drama of last season’s epic, we could well see one of the best winners of the contest in recent times if the market is correct. Aidan O’Brien’s IDAHO comes into the race off the back of a most impressive success in the Great Voltigeur, powering home as much the best horse in the race at the end of the one and a half mile contest. The way he travelled, quickened and put the race to bed marked him down as a very high-class colt, if we didn’t know that already after his third and second places behind Harzand in the Derby and the Irish Derby respectively. He easily reeled in his stablemate, Housesofparliament, after that rival had set the pace and it’s unlikely that form will be reversed on this likely slower ground, even though that rival won’t have to make the running again here with trailblazing O’Brien third-string Sword Fighter in the lineup. While Housesofparliament looks as if he’ll stay all day at the one pace, IDAHO has that touch of class that allows him to quicken as well as stay, so even though he doesn’t have the assistance of Ryan Moore, he has a short-priced favourite’s chance under Seamie Heffernan and is very hard to oppose.


If there was one not from the O’Brien three that could upset the applecart, it might just be John Gosden’s Muntahaa, who won a Chester Listed contest last time out and was a staying-on third to Across The Stars (3rd in the Voltigeur subsequently) in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s an improving stayer and even though he’ll have to take a considerable step forward from Chester, where he beat the 96-rated Duretto by a short head, the longer trip and softish ground could be ideal.
Of ‘the rest’, Ventura Storm comes into the race in excellent form, with two wins on the bounce, beating fellow entry Ormito well in a Listed race at Hamilton while giving him 4lbs and then comfortably taking a Group 3 in France over an extended mile and a half. Any ease in the ground won’t be a worry for this Richard Hannon-trained colt and if he can stay the trip well enough, he could surprise a few at odds of 25/1.


Harbour Law just failed to overhaul Sword Fighter in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and you might expect those two to be relatively close once again here, but the fact Sword Fighter is O’Brien’s third-choice in the race judging by the betting, shows you how much Laura Mongan’s colt will have to find to take a hand.
Finally, Mick Channon has kept the faith with Harrison all year despite a few disappointing runs from a horse he thought could have a chance in the Derby at the start of the season and if he keeps improving and proves he can stay the trip, he could get closer to Idaho than the eight length defeat in the Voltigeur and a little closer to Housesofparliament than when he was one and a quarter lengths behind in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, but he’s obviously got plenty to do to be considered as a genuine threat.




MY Advice




IDAHO – 2pts win @ 4/5 (William Hill)









4.20 Doncaster – Champagne Pommery Nursery Handicap Stakes.






This looks a pretty competitive heat but one really stands out and that is HARBOUR MASTER. Jamie Osborne’s charge has looked an altogether different animal since stepping up in trip and tackling a mile for the first time here shouldn’t prove too much of an issue. He broke his maiden in decent style at the fourth time of asking at Lingfield in July and although that didn’t look the strongest of races, he confirmed that he is a colt on the up with a dominant display in a Sandown nursery next time. Connections have been talking big things for him and while he still has a way to go, the fact that he holds an entry in the Royal Lodge suggests that his best days could be ahead of him. It will be no easy task conceding weight all round but he still looks like the one to beat.


Khalidi could be the one to give him most to think about if replicating the form that saw him land a Goodwood maiden a fortnight ago. He had shown some useful form in a couple of decent Newmarket maidens prior to that and seemed to relish the step up to a mile last time. He is another with lofty aspirations (holds a Racing Post Trophy entry) but he did get the run of the race in a small-field last time and may not be able to dominate so easily in this.


Bottom weight Mount Moriah has the benefit of receiving weight all round and was a most impressive winner of a Kempton maiden at the back end of last month. Already gelded, he showed a good attitude to tow the field along before kicking for home with a decent turn of foot. The form of that win probably doesn’t equate to much but he has only been allocated a mark of 73 and should prove competitive.


Maths Prize has already shown a decent level of form and although not the flashiest of types, he has still managed to get the job done the last twice. The Queen’s runner has been hit with a 4lb rise for prevailing by a neck in a 3-runner nursery at Ripon last month, which looks fair considering he was unsuited by the track and he is certainly bred to be pretty smart, for all he should come into his own over further down the line.


The least experience runner in the field is Stuart Wlliams’ Stellar Surprise who arrives here on the back of a debut win in a Chepstow maiden last month. She was well supported that day and rewarded punters as she ran out a cosy winner, belying her inexperience as she looked well at home and did everything Oisin Murphy asked of her. An opening mark of 77 could well be on the lenient side for the well-bred filly and she is another who still holds an entry in the Racing Post Trophy.


The only other filly in the line-up, Temerity, has probably the strongest form on show here having finished runner-up in a similar event at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago. However, she was quite comprehensively beaten that day and has been hit with a 2lb rise for that effort. When you take into account the loss of Adam McNamara’s very useful 5lb claim, that puts her on 7lb worse terms here.


Andrew Balding’s Drochaid won a close affair at Haydock over a month ago and although the runner-up Sofia’s Rock has since let the form down, the third-placed Procurator scored in a Goodwood nursery off a mark of 77 subsequently to boost his chances here. He has been steadily progressive in four runs and showed a really good attitude to get up in a ding-dong battle last time out. He is a bit more battle-hardened and streetwise than a few of his rivals and that could land him in good stead.




MY Advice






HARBOUR MASTER – 1.5pts win @ 7/2 (bet365, Ladbrokes)







4.50 Doncaster – Napoleons Casinos & Restaurants Handicap.




Heading the weights for this £15k handicap is the 2015 Cambridgeshire winner, Third Time Lucky, who returned to form on his last outing for trainer Richard Fahey, finishing less than two lengths behind Firmament in a very competitive heat over a mile at York. It was a much better effort after two disappointing runs off a mark of 102 to start the season and the drop to 100 seemed to help him find some form. He is still 5lb higher than for his Newmarket success in September last year though and may need the handicapper to relent a couple more pounds if he’s to find himself back on a winning mark, but he should run a decent race here nonetheless with trip and ground in his favour.


Breakable comes into the race on a hat-trick for Tim Easterby, but as with most horses who have won twice in quick succession, the handicapper has had a big say, raising him 6lb to a mark of 96 after the second of those wins. It’s by far the highest mark he’s ever had to cope with and this looks like a tougher race than he’s used to, but he’s in form and won’t mind any cut in the ground, so shouldn’t be ruled out lightly.


Luca Cumani’s three-year-old, Banksea, has run in many of this year’s big festivals, performing with plenty of credit on a couple of occasions, including over ten furlongs at the July Festival and then over a mile when a close second last time out in a competitive event at York’s Ebor Festival. He’s gone up to a mark of 99 now, 5lbs higher than for that last run, but he did look a colt that was on the upgrade so it may not be enough to completely anchor him. The major worry would be the ground if this was over a mile and two furlongs, but a bit of cut over this galloping mile could actually help his chances so he’s definitely one to consider in an open contest.


Trained by James Fanshawe, Up In Lights is a very lightly-raced four-year-old with just seven starts to her name, but comes into this off the back off a nice win in a Newmarket handicap over the now 87-rated Yeah Baby Yeah. That was a decent effort and it adds to the list of good, solid performances from this Makfi filly – she’s one that stays at least a mile and handles cut in the ground, so has to hold claims, but you just wonder whether she’s good enough to trouble a few of the possibly better-handicapped, younger brigade here.


Three-year-olds have won four of the last nine runnings of the race and Mark Johnston’s King’s Pavilion falls into that category and interestingly, has almost three times the amount of runs under his belt than Up In Lights, who is a year older. He clearly won’t lack for experience but I have a feeling that he’d be better at seven furlongs on this type of track, even though the softer surface should help. On his best form, he’d have a shout off a mark of 92, but the biggest worry is that he’s extremely inconsistent and his last two runs haven’t contained much promise at all. However, Johnston is excellent at getting his handicappers to peak at the bigger occasions, so he could well bounce back.


But the one I like in this field is Mick Channon’s three-year-old filly, CZABO. She was touted as a 1,000 Guineas filly not so long ago and despite missing that race, ran respectably in soft ground to finish fourth in the Irish version, behind Jet Setting, Minding and Now Or Never. She then went on to win a Listed race at Deauville, defeating Andre Fabre’s highly-rated Come Alive quite comfortably and despite being well-beaten in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, she’s clearly a classy filly on her day. Now Or Never was fourth in that race, so CZABO clearly didn’t run to form that day, else she would have been a lot closer and was given a nice long break as a result. She won on her return from an eight-month break between her two and three-year-old seasons so she’s clearly fine after a lay-off and will appreciate the probable bit of cut in the ground. This galloping mile should suit her well and I’m expecting a very bold showing with Champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle providing considerable assistance to this generously-priced filly.






MY Advice




CZABO – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365)






.
5.25 Doncaster – EBF Breeders’ Series Fillies’ Handicap Stakes.




With a hefty 9lb pull with their older rivals, the trio of three-year-olds here look to be the ones to focus on. Turning The Table looks to have her work cut out running from 1lb out of the weights but MOORSIDE arrives on more favourable terms and could turn out to be a class above her rivals here. Charlie Hills’ charge only shed her maiden tag at the fifth time of asking at Kempton early last month but had shown enough prior to that to suggest that she has a bit about her. She was a tad green on debut when finishing a close third behind subsequent Group 3 Musidora Stakes winner So Mi Dar and ran into one when filling the same place behind unbeaten Royal Ascot winner Persuasive at Kempton a month later. Despite not breaking her duck, she was put away for the winter and returned with a daunting task in the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She was quietly fancied in some quarters and ran a blinder to push odds-on hotshot Somehow all the way to the line. In truth, she hasn’t particularly kicked on since then but she remains fairly unexposed the well-bred daughter of Champs Elysees can land her second victory here.


Renfrew Street rates as the biggest danger as the choice of title-chasing Silvestre De Sousa. She has had a busy campaign and has proved most consistent bar a rare below-par effort at Ayr in June, possibly unsuited by making the running in a slowly run race. She ran a blinder when a close-up fourth in the Lanark Silver Bell on her penultimate start before staying on well into second at Ascot last Friday. She is clearly no world-beater but with a handy weight-for-age allowance back against her own sex, she can make her presence felt.


The older brigade look a fairly exposed bunch with the exception of Luca Cumani’s lightly-raced four-year-old Bess of Hardwick. The daughter of Dansili finished third on her belated racecourse debut last May in what turned out be a pretty strong race and duly opened her account at the very next time of asking in October later in the year. She has had a few setbacks though and was easy to back when bombing out in a handicap at Ascot in July. She produced a marginally better effort when fourth at Salisbury latest and has been eased 1lb by the handicapper but she shapes as though needing a stiffer test than 1m4f.




MY Advice




MOORSIDE – 1.5pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power)







6.00 Doncaster – Harriet De-Vere Powell Handicap.




Despite the small field for this race, it looks a decent encounter with many horses either justifiably rated in three figures or with more than enough potential to rate that high. Rated 102 is Godolphin’s Gold Trail, who was last seen finishing just a length away from Educate in the John Smith’s Cup at York off 1lb lower. He could well have won that day, but just seemed to get a little tired towards the end of his first start for eleven months, so you’d expect he’d have come on and will be fitter for this encounter. He’ll appreciate this return to a mile and a half, the trip over which he last won and the ground shouldn’t be a worry unless there’s a real deluge – he probably wouldn’t want conditions too soft. The worries are that, off a mark of 102, there isn’t much room for manoeuvre and he would probably prefer a bigger field and the strong gallop that almost guarantees, but nevertheless he holds very solid claims in an open race.


Mark Johnston’s middle-distance handicappers always need a good amount of respect afforded to them and his Stars Over The Sea looks to hold great claims on his consistent performances over the past few months. His close second to Cymro at Haydock last time out off a mark of 102 was a decent effort and showed not only that he has the ability to handle this kind of mark, but stayed strongly on a rain-softened surface. He’ll most likely try to dominate from the front under George Baker and if the jockey can give him a ‘Quest For More’ style ride, he’ll have a great chance, even though he’s another who doesn’t have much give in his mark.


However, Felix Mendelssohn was just half a length behind Johnston’s horse in the race at Haydock and races off 1lb better terms here, so has every chance of reversing the form. It’s taken a while for him to rediscover the kind of form he showed on his two runs when he was with Aidan O’Brien as a three-year-old, but this lightly-raced five-year-old has finally hit the ground running and might just be ready to strike. A mark of 95 should be workable for the son of Galileo and Jamie Spencer is the best around for a horse with his hold-up style, so even though he’s a risky proposition, he’s certainly worth keeping a close eye on.


Ajman Bridge is the oldest competitor in the race at six, but is also the contender who comes into the race after being given the most generous treatment from the handicapper. He’s been dropped 5lb to a mark of 99 after two disappointing efforts in handicaps for new trainer Roger Varian and that’s his lowest since May 2015. He was a close second to Arab Dawn in the 2015 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot off a mark of 100, so there’s certainly a chance here to make hay if the ability is still there. A first-time set of cheekpieces could well combine with the drop in the weights to revive this previously consistent handicapper but even given his tempting mark, it’s a risk given how poorly he’s gone so far for Varian.


Three-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and the only representative from that age group this time around comes from Charlie Hills’ stable. High Grounds has only had five runs and looks a big, raw type of horse who will need time to fulfil his potential, not to mention that a mark of 95 looks harsh on what he’s done so far in his career. Having said that, the son of High Chaparral could well have any amount of improvement to come and carrying just 8st 10lb with the assistance of the Champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa gives him a squeak of a chance, however small.


The other three of the last six renewals have been won by four year olds with a mark of 89, 91 and 95, so ARGUS fits the bill very well off 91 and with any amount of improvement still to come. Ralph Beckett’s stable is in good form at the moment and with Rich Legacy and Simple Verse winning in these colours under Oisin Murphy on Thursday, it’s a good idea to follow the in-form pair. Although on the face of it, the lightly-raced son of Rip Van Winkle didn’t put in a great effort in finishing sixth on his seasonal reappearance at York, he ran very well for a long way before tiring in the final furlong. He should come on plenty for that run and a mark of 91 could be lenient judging on his good win over C&D in October 2015 off a mark of 89. The horse who was second that day, Mistiroc, is now rated 96 and already has two good wins to his name this season, so it’s safe to say that Argus should have more to come. Beckett always had high hopes for this colt, saying he considered him a stakes horse for this season, and with ground, trip and a possibly lenient mark all in his favour, he has a great chance to prove it here in a race that looks to be crying out for an improver to go past the consistent handicappers.




MY Advice:


ARGUS 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, William Hill)