The Betfair Exchange Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle is a grade 3 run over 2M 7F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 19th November, on the undercard of the Betfair Chase. The race will feature many of the best staying handicap hurdlers in Great Britain and younger horses, ideally French bred, higher up the ratings have done best in this race. David Pipe & Nick Williams have trained 5 of last 7 winners between them, however neither trainer is represented this year.



Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-2

5yo: 5-7-24

6yo: 3-7-38

7yo: 2-4-38

8yo: 0-3-32

9yo: 0-4-19

10yo: 0-3-9

11yo+: 0-1-7

10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7 (10-18-100)

4 of 5 winners aged 5 were French bred.

horses aged 8 or older have gained no wins from 67 runners.



Breeding

French bred: 6-10-41

Irish bred: 2-10-69

GB bred: 2-7-49

German bred: 0-2-7

USA bred: 0-0-3

French bred horses have won 6 of 10 runnings, from less than 25% of total runners.



Weight

horses carrying 11-7 or more: 4-4-27

horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-11-43

horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 4-11-67

horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 1-2-22

horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-1-10

horses carrying 11-7 or more have won 4 of 10 from 16% of total runners, and seen almost one third of their runners make the places.

Top Weights: 0121P40051846 (3-3-13)

horses carrying a penalty: 154 (1-1-3)



Official Ratings

horses rated 140 or higher: 6-11-60

horses rated 139 or less: 4-18-109

The last 5 winners have been rated 136 to 143.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 completed starts

9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 138+ in last 3 completed starts

9 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run over hurdles that season

8 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer hurdles races

9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles (8 of 10 had won 0 or 1)

Last 8 winners had won a hurdle 2M 3F to 2M 6F but no further

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a class 3 or higher (exception won grade 2 chase)

9 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase or hurdle (exception won a Cheltenham class 2 handicap hurdle on previous start)

8 of 10 winners had won a race under NH rules with 15 or more runners

9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race at a left-handed track



Other Races

Previous year's Wincanton Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (If In Doubt): 73 (0-1-2)

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Caid Du Berlais): 260 (0-1-3)

Previous year's Money Advice Group H'cap Hurdle winner (Island Heights): 6 (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Gaskells Waste Management Handicap Hurdle, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, finishing 03

2 of 4 second season hurdler winners ran in Classic novice hurdle, finishing 13



Trainers

Dan Skelton (1-0-1) trained Baradari to win this in 2015.

Jonjo O'Neill (0-3-8) has saddled 3 placed from finishers from 8 runners.

Paul Nicholls (0-2-7) has gained 2 places from 7 runners.

Brian Ellison (0-1-1), Lucinda Russell (0-1-2) & Phillip Hobbs (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.

Irish trained runners (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners.



Racing Tactics

4 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)

2 of 10 winners chased leaders

4 of 10 winners were held up



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter

6 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting.

The favourite (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred

- Aged 5 to 7 (French bred 5yos do particularly well)

- Carrying 11-7 or more

- Officially rated 135 to 143

- Won 1 of last 3 completed starts

- Posted an RPR of 138+ last time

- Run 4 to 11 times over hurdles

- Run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or fewer)

- Won a hurdles race over 2M 3F to 2M 6F

- Won a class 3 or higher

- Contested a class 1 hurdle

- Won a jumps race with 15 or more runners

- Won a hurdles race at a left-handed track

- Finished in first 3 in Gaskells Waste Management Handicap Hurdle or Classic Novice Hurdle

- Respect front-runners

- Trained by Dan Skelton or Jonjo O'Neill