HENNESSY GOLD CUP TRENDS 2016

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The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 26th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. Bobs Worth & Denman have both won the race en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold in March in past 10 years.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-3

6yo: 2-6-29

7yo: 5-9-59

8yo: 2-2-25

9yo: 1-6-39

10yo: 0-4-19

11yo+: 0-1-4

6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 7-15-88) which compares well to all others ages (combined 3-13-90).

Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.



Breeding

Progeny of Presenting: PP1P03153832 (2-4-12)

Progeny of Kayf Tara: 662104 (1-2-6)

Progeny of King's Theatre: 0P3P742 (0-3-7)



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 11-0 or more: 8-10-59

horses carrying less than 11-0: 2-18-119

Higher weights hold the call in this with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 11-1 or more, in 2 other years there had only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.

Top Weight: P1313P20P25 (2-4-11) has gained 3 wins and 4 places in last 11 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.



Official Ratings

horses rated 153 or higher: 5-10-49

horses rated 136 to 152: 5-15-121

horses rated 126 to 135: 0-3-8

The last 10 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.

horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners since 2005.



Recent/Past Form



10 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run since 1st June

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy and other was 2nd in 3M Reynoldstown Novice Chase that year)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed start (2 others posted RPR of 139+)

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 14 times over fences (exception placed in previous renewal)

8 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their chase starts (2 exception finished in first 5 in previous renewal)

7 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences

8 of 10 winners had won a class 1 chase (one exception 2nd in grade 1 chase)

5 of 10 winners were second season chasers (other 5 were 3rd or 4th season chasers)

7 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 3 were having first chase start here)

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at a left-handed track



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Smad Place): 30P (0-1-3)

RSA Chase winner (Blaklion): 1P18 (2-0-4)

Harrison James and Hardie Novices' Chase winner (Blaklion): U24 (0-2-3)

Mildmay Novices' Chase winner (Native River): UP25 (0-1-4)

Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Native River): 50 (0-0-2)

BetBright Chase winner (Theatre Guide): PF (0-0-2)

Towton Novice Chase winner (Blaklion): 68P8 (0-0-4)

Previous season's Malardjewellers Novices' Chase winner (Vicente): PPP7 (0-0-4)

BetBright Cotswold Chase winner (Smad Place): 807P0 (0-0-5)

4 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase, finishing 1P1B

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Feltham, finishing 53

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Reynoldstown Novices' Chase, finishing 22

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Better Odds With Betfair Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

3 of 5 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 298

3 of 5 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in RSA at novices, finishing 142

2 of 5 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 63

2 of 5 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing F4

2 of 5 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in BetBright Cup, finishing 52



Running Style

9 of 10 winners raced in touch or with the leaders throughout

Exception was Many Clouds in 2014, who was settled in mid division early.



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-5-23) has won the race 3 times in past 13 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out in 2008.

Nicky Henderson (2-3-12) saddled the winner in 2005, 2012 & 2013 and a placed finisher in 2006 & 2010.

David Pipe (1-3-11) has gained a win and 3 places from 11 runners in last 10 years.

Marcus Bradstock (1-0-3), Nick Williams (1-0-4) and Alan King (1-0-10) have also all trained the winner in the 6 years.

Colin Tizzard (0-2-4) has saddled Theatre Guide to be placed in 2 of last 3 renewals.

Irish-trained runners (0-2-22) have gained just 2 place from 22 runners in past 10 years (both First Lieutenant, 3rd in 2012 & 2015).



Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners.

Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a £1 level stakes loss of 1.25.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8 (ideally 6 or 7)

- Carrying 11-0+

- Officially rated 147 to 161

- Run in 3 to 14 chases (winning at least 40%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M+

- Previously won a class 1 chase (or placed in a grade 1)

- Previously won a chase at a left-handed track

- Finished in the first 3 last time out

- Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start

- Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 8)

- Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)

- Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA, Reynoldstown and/or Feltham Chase or

- Third or fourth season chaser that ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup and/or Cotswold Chase

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson