Ascot,Haydock and one from Huntingdon --- saturday 19/11/2016

[ganjaman2]

12.25 Ascot – Mitie Events & Leisure Novices’ Hurdle.


An interesting novice contest and one that could contain a couple of very good young hurdlers. One who isn’t so unknown is Warren Greatrex’s Aloomomo, who is still a novice over hurdles despite six runs over the smaller obstacles in France and over here. He was third behind Yala Enki and Mr Mix at this track on his last run over hurdles in February and even though his experience could help here, a repeat of that form, even over this longer trip, shouldn’t be good enough as he encounters some very promising young horses.

Elegant Escape represents the in-form Tizzard yard here and off the back of a battling maiden hurdle win over Paul Nicholls’ useful Persian Delight; he holds strong claims up in trip. He was second in his only start in a useful-looking Irish point-to-point and is highly regarded, so has to be respected in a race where many of the runners’ full potential is yet to be seen.

Kim Bailey’s Laval Noir was last seen running out an impressive winner of a Huntingdon bumper, defeating a highly-regarded Henderson imate, Bardd. He’s a half-brother to the useful Kasakh Noir and despite taking a while to warm up on that racecourse debut; he knew his job well enough at the end and was quite impressive. However, despite his obvious potential, his lack of hurdling experience could leave him a little behind the others and he might be one to keep in the notebook for another day.

For me, the race looks between two exciting prospects from top yards that are unbeaten under rules. Laser Light hails from the Alan King stable, which always has some top class novice hurdlers in its ranks, and the five-year-old has already shown plenty in winning a bumper at Towcester and a maiden hurdle at Chepstow. The form of his hurdle win was boosted this week when Copain De Classe (eight lengths behind in 3rd that day) bolted up at the same venue and the second, Rolling Dylan, did the same at Uttoxeter. The race looks a good one and if those two in behind are anything to go by, King might have a seriously smart horse on his hands. The form of his point-to-point second behind the smart Robin Roe looks more than solid too with that rival hammering a good field at Aintree. He’s a very solid choice in anyone’s book.

COASTAL TIEP, by the admission of jockey Nick Scholfield, is ‘a bit of a playboy’, who showed his inexperience, including a tendency to be a bit lazy and not concentrate properly on his last run at Kempton where he jumped awkwardly at times, was still green for much of the race and needed cajoling as early as the seventh hurdle. However, he still ran out a facile seven length winner over a rival rated 123 and, also by Scholfield’s admission, is a horse that the Nicholls stable hasn’t got to anywhere near the bottom of yet. He’s still just a four-year-old and clearly has plenty of improvement still to come in the hands of the master trainer. The Coastal Path gelding looks a strong stayer with a big career still ahead of him and the way he did everything wrong last time and still won very easily has stuck in my head ever since – if he’s grown up mentally and knows his job better here, he really could be anything, hopefully a Graded-class novice in a race that could contain at least two of them.

MY Advice

COASTAL TIEP – 1pt win @ 10/3 (bet365, BetVictor)



12.40 Haydock – Better Odds With Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle.



Just the six runners head to post for this 2m2f contest and the field is headed by Connetable who enjoyed a fine start to the season last term, finishing second in a warm race at Ascot before getting the better of his elders in the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown. Hopes were high for Paul Nicholls’ juvenile after that but he disappointed on his two subsequent runs when down the field in both the Triumph Hurdle and the Scottish Champion Hurdle. However both of those runs came on quicker ground and it is possible that a return to the testing conditions he is likely to encounter tomorrow will show him in a better light. Nicholls has also chosen to utilise the valuable 5lb claim of Stan Sheppard who has already shown himself to be more than competent in the saddle and it should lessen the burden a little. Clearly fitness has to be taken on trust on his seasonal reappearance but in these conditions I think fitness is likely to play a big part and therefore he is reluctantly passed over.

He is joined at the head of the weights by James Ewart’s Aristo Du Plessis who has progressed rapidly over the last two seasons, winning six of his last ten starts. His two starts this term haven’t been too clever but he didn’t seem to take to chasing at Cheltenham in October and he was just outclassed in the Elite Hurdle last time. Clearly he needs to bounce back to form here but he sits on his last winning mark (145) and Dale Irving takes a valuable 5lb off his back. He has won on soft in the past so he should handle conditions but the step up in trip is a big question mark and I think others have stronger claims.

One who is likely to be popular in the market is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ El Terremoto who built on a solid British debut at Chepstow when winning at Stratford at the end of last month. The four-year-old seemed to appreciate stepping up to 2m6f so it is interesting that connections are dropping him back to 2m3f here. The form of his Stratford win doesn’t look overly strong for all he seemed to win very well and he could easily still have more improvement to come. The major question mark for him would have to be the ground as he was well beaten on all four starts on very soft ground when trained in France. That is likely to be major concern bearing in mind what the ground is likely to be at Haydock and for that reason I feel he is worth taking on.

The one who looks to have most going in his favour is the Emmanuel Clayeux-trained FYRMYIN who has won his last three starts in his native France. He showed he handled very soft ground when winning at Vichy in September and for all the form is hard to weigh up, he certainly has race fitness on his side. His trainer was weighing up running him in the Fixed Brush Hurdle instead so he clearly thinks plenty of him and he has to come into consideration getting 9lb from those at the head of the weights. I tend to find that foreign-trained horses are often a bigger price when running over here and in what are likely to be very attritional conditions, I think it is worth taking a chance on him.

Of the rest, Massini’s Trap caused something of a surprise when winning at Aintree a few weeks ago, sprinting clear of his rivals in the closing stages to win by five lengths. Some of those behind him included the smart Born Survivor and Buywise, who ran a fine race in the BetVictor Gold Cup last weekend. Ciaran Gethings’ 5lb claim negates most of the rise in the weights he received for that run but with that victory having come on a sound surface, it remains to be seen whether he will handle these slower conditions.

The field is completed by Jim Goldie’s Great Fighter who has just the one win to his name over hurdles so far. He was running on from the back on his latest outing at Ayr at the end of last month but these conditions are something of an unknown for him. His jockey Brian Hughes could not be in better form but the six-year-old would need a career best by some way to get his head in front here.

MY Advice

FYRMYIN – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)



1.05 Huntingdon – The Brian Stone 50th Birthday Celebration EBF TBA Mares’ Novices’ Steeple Chase.


As a pretty valuable race of its type, despite only a select field of five, the line-up looks well above average and it promises to be an intriguing contest.

The quintet look very well matched on paper with them all returning from a summer break and without any previous chasing experience under rules to go on, their form over hurdles looks the best place to start and the top-rated over the smaller obstacles is THE ORGANIST.

The five-year-old was an impressive winner of a Perth mares’ bumper for Stuart Crawford last May and was snapped up by Anthony Bromley’s Million In Mind operation on the back of that victory for £60,000; a shrewd purchase given J. P. McManus (sho also purchased her half-brother Regal Encore for a sizeable sum) went to £260,000 to acquire her just a year later. Stepped up in trip for her first two hurdles starts, she wiped the floor with the opposition and bounced back from a below-par effort over an inadequate two miles to score at Listed level in a particularly competitive mares’ race over three miles at Doncaster’s Grimthorpe Chase meeting in March. In all likelihood, she would have enhanced her profile with another Listed win at Cheltenham the following month but for coming to grief at the last and despite being under pressure, she seemed to keep finding extra. It could have been a very good performance given she was conceding at least 5lb all round and providing that hiccup hasn’t dented her confidence, she could prove a real force in this sphere.

Sainte Ladylime was left in the lead in that fateful Cheltenham contest but didn’t have enough in the tank having made a mistake at the final flight to hold off Katie Too and Actinpieces, eventually finishing third. That was still probably a career-best effort and she seemed to go from strength to strength upon joining Kim Bailey and tackling hurdles last season. In truth, she was long odds-on on her final two victories against questionable opposition and would be 9lb wrong with the selection on their hurdles marks but she clearly has ability and her participation adds to the intrigue of this contest.

The only horse to beat the selection when she has completed in her career to date is Tara Flow who comfortably got the better of her re-opposing rival at Leicester back in January. However, Venetia Williams’ mare looked more at home over the minimum trip and put her speed to good use. She looks like making a cracking chaser as a big rangy sort but her jumping was let down in a Sandown Grade 2 on her latest start and the step up to today’s trip didn’t seem to suit her as she was far too free throughout. With that in mind, she will have to settle a lot better now tackling fences for the first time but it’s worth noting that her bumper form in Ireland for Pat Fahy was particularly smart with subsequent Grade 1 winner Don’ Touch It and Grade 1 runner-up Last Encounter in behind so she evidently has the ability to make her mark. Charlie Deutsch’s valuable 5lb claim can only aid her cause.

The remaining pair have an edge on their rivals as they both emerged from the pointing sphere with a win to their name although Treaty Girl does look to be the one with a bit to find on the rest of the field. She was a wide margin winner of a maiden and novice hurdle earlier this year but was found out in a Listed handicap hurdle at Cheltenham behind Briery Belle (who was runner-up to the selection at Doncaster on her previous start) on her latest start.

Of more interest is Tagrita who represents the bang in-form Paul Nicholls. She is the most experienced campaigner in the field having already had 11 starts over hurdles to go with her impressive victory in her sole start in Irish points. The eight-year-old returned from a year off to score in a pair of Wincanton handicap hurdles last campaign but signed off with a lacklustre effort at Fontwell on her final start back in March. She is bred for fences and will no doubt have been well schooled at Manor House Stables but has tended to come on for her seasonal bow in the past.


MY Advice

THE ORGANIST – 2pts win @ 2/1 (bet365)



1.30 Ascot – The Trisoft Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Race.


This has the makings of a pretty intriguing contest on paper but I’ve always thought LIFEBOAT MONA could be a well above average mare and an opening handicap mark of 127 may well underestimate her. Paul Nicholls’ was a decent winner of a 4yo mares maiden on her only start in Irish points and blossomed into a quality bumper performer a couple of seasons back, landing a Listed mares’ bumper at Huntingdon in the process. She commenced her hurdling career with a dominant display in a mares’ maiden at Wincanton and rounded off her season with another solid display in a novice event back at that course in February. A disappointing run in a Listed novice at Taunton was sandwiched in between but it was reported that the yard were out of sorts at the time and she seemed none the worse next time out. The conditions here should be ideal for her and if she is ready to go first time up, she could take all the beating.

Miss Estela was another on the verge of being a very smart bumper animal a couple of seasons back but has taken time to find her feet over hurdles since. She deservedly landed a couple of handicap hurdles in the spring but looked to throw the towel in on her final start for Warren Greatrex at Warwick and joined Johnny Farrelly shortly after. She looked a totally different animal and battled well having been headed two out to grind out a half-length win. She doesn’t always seem the most straightforward but connections thought that a change of scenery might sharpen her up and it certainly worked. A further 7lb rise is a tough one to overcome stepping back up in class but it is a case of striking while the iron is hot with the six-year-old at the moment as she is currently in foal.

Top weight Ten Times Better is an interesting contender on her first outing for Peter Bowen. She landed a bumper and maiden hurdle at Clonmel early last campaign and was subsequently set some fairly hefty tasks in Graded company. She was sent off a surprising favourite in the Grade 2 Monksfield Novice Hurdle but never landed a telling blow and hasn’t really seemed to progress from her maiden success. Making her handicap debut off a mark of 130 looks a stiff ask here on all evidence.

At the other end of the spectrum, Loves Destination gets in off a featherweight with Michael Heard’s handy 5lb claim. She scored in three handicap hurdles in February and March and although she is now 10lb higher than her last winning mark, she is technically 1lb lower than when a staying on second at Warwick back in September. She was a tad keen that day so the step up in trip should certainly be in her favour.

Midnight Sapphire arrives here bang in form having struck in a pair of Newton Abbot handicap hurdles last month. She was hit with an 8lb rise for her latest victory but that seems fair given the ready fashion in which she took on the boys and prevailed and that form has been boosted with the third-placed Expedite since going in at Exeter. Although not as visually as impressive, her first victory in the month was a top staying effort and is another run that has been boosted by the beaten horses, most notably the runner-up On Demand who has subsequently won twice. This is a step into the unknown in terms of class but on the evidence of her last couple of runs, she could well be up to making her presence felt.

Also, with a pair of 1s next to her name is Mia’s Storm who warrants a great deal of respect from the Alan King stable, who have a great record with fillies and mares. She struck on her only start in points and was clearly well thought of upon joining current connections as she was pitched in at the deep end in a Listed bumper on her first start. She performed with great credit to finish second behind La Bague Au Roi but it took a little while for her hurdling career to get out of the blocks. She was convincingly beaten when sent off favourite on her hurdling debut at Warwick and failed to get involved in a Sandown Grade 2 three weeks later. However, she bounced back with aplomb in the spring, landing a pair of mares’ novice events in ready fashion and makes her handicap debut here off a fair mark of 126. She clearly has her best days ahead of her and rates the biggest danger to the selection with Tom Cannon, one of the strongest jockeys in Britain, taking the ride.

Of the remainder, Pulling Power looks to have a bit to find having been pulled up and well beaten in a pair of handicap hurdles off this mark to round off last campaign while Ayla’s Emperor has been dropped 2lb on the back of her last run but has finished out with the washing on her two starts in the last month or so.

MY Advice

LIFEBOAT MONA – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Betfair Sportsbook)



2.05 Ascot – Stella Artois 1965 Chase (Grade 2)


With the likes of Vautour, Al Ferof and Master Minded on the roll of honour of this race, it clearly usually takes a good one to win it and class often shines through despite the better horses having to carry more weight.

The Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree a month ago is an excellent place to start here as four of the first five home re-oppose again here. Third Intention won the race that day and probably put up a career-best in doing so for Colin Tizzard, but received a lot of weight from most of his rivals, including over a stone from God’s Own. Although he’s clearly a very consistent horse and has plenty of ability, I find it very hard to see him backing that win up here. Royal Regatta carried the same weight as Third Intention that day but was well-beaten in fifth and even though he’ll have come on for that seasonal debut and he does love the track at Ascot, he’s another that might find it difficult here.

Vibrato Valtat hit the front two out at Aintree, but couldn’t hold off Third Intention or God’s Own in the closing stages of the race for Paul Nicholls. It was a return to form for the grey gelding after falling and then finishing tailed off at the two big festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree at the end of last season and he’s certainly entitled to build upon that last effort here. He does look a very difficult horse to place though – not quite up to winning a Grade 1 at either two miles or two and a half miles, even in his preferred softer ground. This is the kind of race he would seem to have a decent chance in, but in the horse that finished in front of him at Aintree, he’s got a top-class rival to beat.

With Tom George’s stable in flying form over these early few weeks of the jumps season and Grade 1 triumphs over the likes of Vautour and Al Ferof to his name, GOD’S OWN looks the one to beat here despite giving the field weight – he has to give 4lb to most of the field but he’s rated 6lb better than the rest anyway. His second at Aintree looked a horribly unlucky one, hampered at the fourth last, just as the leaders quickened up, before quickening well and staying on powerfully to claim second. He was giving Third Intention over a stone there, so I’d be stunned if that form wasn’t overturned on 11lb better terms, while he’s 2lb better off with Vibrato Valtat despite besting him by two and a half lengths. He’s better on a right handed track too, as his defeat of Vautour at Punchestown showed, and the good to soft ground should be spot on for him.

The biggest threat on ratings is Paul Nicholls’ second entry in the race, Dodging Bullets, who gets 10lb from the selection despite being rated just 6lb inferior. However, his run at Exeter behind Sir Valentino and Garde La Victoire didn’t really show the spark this 2015 Champion Chaser used to have and I’d be wary of him until he proves he’s back to somewhere near his best, especially over a trip that he’s unproven at.

The other one that could be in with a shout is the impressive novice from last year, Kylemore Lough. He could be anything this year and his defeat of Outlander at Fairyhouse in the Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup reads well, so he’s one to keep a close eye on, even though he’ll probably come on for the run and the experience in this open company.

MY Advice

GOD’S OWN – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)



2.25 Haydock – Betfair Exchange ‘Fixed Brush’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)


Make no bones about it; this is likely to be a brutal test of stamina in what is going to be sticky, heavy ground. With that in mind, I’d be very nervous to suggest anything that a) doesn’t have much experience of very soft ground and b) hasn’t run a good race over three miles.

After winning the race with Baradari last season, Dan Skelton has the favourite here in Two Taffs and after a facile win in a weak novice hurdle at Carlisle to get his season started, he’s thrown in at the deep end here. His efforts in a couple of decent handicap hurdles at Kempton and Sandown (EBF Final) are very respectable, especially the latter, staying on well to finish fourth after being hampered two out. It showed he stayed two and a half miles on soft ground and that there was juice in a mark of 126. He went on to comfortably win off a mark of 129 over two miles and five furlongs on decent ground at Ayr, but he was receiving weight from many of his rivals that day and had the benefit of a prep for the race that didn’t include a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival. This will require a significant step up again off a mark of 138 on ground he’s never encountered before and even though the Skelton’s are doing well in competitive handicaps already this season, prices of 4/1 look very short to me.

Caid Du Berlais bolted up under Stan Sheppard at Aintree last time out on his first attempt at three miles. The switch back to hurdles this season looks to have revitalised the 2014 Paddy Power (now BetVictor) Gold Cup winner and that proof of his stamina certainly puts him in the mix here. He’s a soft-ground winner with a French background, so you’d think that he’ll be able to handle the ground, the only issue I have with him is the fact that he’s been hiked up 8lb in the handicap for that last win at Aintree. In a race where every pound could count, he’s now up to a mark that he struggled to win off over fences – the discipline Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old is arguably better at. Of course Sheppard’s 5lb claim will help and I think he’ll go well, but he could just be carrying a few pounds too many to win.

Almost ten lengths behind Nicholls’ horse at Aintree was Kruzhlinin, Philip Hobbs’ staying chaser. It looked as if he was just being given a spin over hurdles as a pipe-opener, but it could be the case that he’ll be kept over hurdles for a while this season to protect his chasing mark for another crack at the Grand National. He’s 10lb better off with Caid Du Berlais here so could well close the gap significantly in a race where stamina will be the key element. Still, he will probably prefer better ground, as will many in this, so his nice hurdles mark might have to wait for a drier day to be taken advantage of.

If it’s a strong-staying battler we’re looking for, Unowhatimeanharry tops the list – his five races won on the spin at the end of last season, culminating in a superb Albert Bartlett victory, showed him to be a highly progressive, hardy horse for Harry Fry and his guts and quality should see him go well again here off a break. He’s won over three miles in heavy ground already at Exeter so stamina is certainly not in question, while he was more than fit enough after a break last season to win, so that shouldn’t be a worry either. The only thing that leaves doubts is carrying top weight – a rating of 149 is a difficult one to win a very competitive handicap hurdle off at the best of times, but in desperate ground and first time out, it would be a monumental performance.

Westren Warrior made a satisfactory return to action at Cheltenham a month ago, finishing a never-nearer sixth in a three mile handicap hurdle on good ground. He’s been dropped a pound to 136 in the handicap for that last run and with the ground turning very soft; it looks as if he should be primed for a good performance here. He’s already won twice on heavy ground, once over three miles and once over two and a half miles so there are no problems there, while the booking of the in-form pilot Brian Hughes looks a shrewd move. However, his second in the Lanzarote Hurdle last year on soft ground might just prove to be a key piece of form in this.

The horse that beat him that day was Venetia Williams’ YALA ENKI, who relished the soft ground and ran his rivals into the ground from the front. He’s a dour stayer who loves as softer ground as you can find, something he’ll certainly get here. He was fifth in the race last season off a mark of 130 and even though he’s running off 139 now, the superb Harry Cobden claims 3lb off his back, making him just 6lb higher in the weights than last year after a season’s worth of improvement. He finished last campaign on a mark of 142 and, as just a six-year-old on just his second season in Britain; I’d be surprised if there wasn’t more improvement to come this term, so with Cobden’s claim, an effective mark of 136 could prove very lenient in conditions that suit him perfectly. The lack of a recent run could be viewed as a concern, but he was excellent on his first run last season and has won or come second each time after a break of two months or more, so fresh could be the time to catch the son of Nickname. All in all, there is plenty going for YALA ENKI and if he can keep his temperament under control (has sweated up in the past), he has to have a fantastic chance.

MY Advice

YALA ENKI – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Betfred)



3.00 Haydock – Betfair Chase (Grade 1)


The Betfair Chase is one of the first early-season races in which we start to see the big guns of the staying chase division returning to the track and all eyes will be on Coneygree to see how the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner is on his return from a 377 day absence. His crowning in March 2015 was quite something as he jumped from pillar to post to land jump racing’s biggest prize and a repeat of that run would surely see him take all the beating here. However, he is now a nine-year-old who has had his fair share of problems in his career to date, restricting him to just 11 starts in four years and it is hard to know how much affect this latest setback has had on him. Even assuming that all is well on his return, a Grade 1 3m chase on heavy ground is hardly the easiest of introductions on the back of a lay-off and there has to be a good chance that the petrol gauge will be running pretty low in the closing stages. On his day, I would be confident that he would be a warm order for this race but given the factors I have just outlined, I think he is worth passing over at 2/1.

The favourite with most firms is the defending champion Cue Card, who also took this contest back in 2013. Colin Tizzard’s ten-year-old was a revelation last term, winning three Grade 1 contests and where he would have finished in the Gold Cup had he stood up is a subject of much debate. However, this season is a new start and having been backed as if defeat was out of the question at Wetherby last month, it is fair to say he was a little disappointing in third. It just looked as though he got tired in the closing stages which is understandable on his first run of the season but he is ten now and until he bounces back to form, you have to wonder if this season may be a bridge too far. In reality he came on a lot for his run in the Charlie Hall last year which he could well do again but I am not sure that backing him at 13/8 is much of a betting proposition.

Irish Cavalier produced a career best to get the better of Cue Card at Wetherby last month but you have to say that race fitness may just have proved the difference on the day, with Rebecca Curtis’ seven-year-old having had a spin around Chepstow in early October. His rating of 160 means that he has to take in these races but he was found wanting in Grade 1 company last year and you suspect that in testing conditions, he is likely to come up short once again here.

It is worth mentioning that Cue Card is not the only dual winner of the race as Silviniaco Conti also comes here bidding to win the race for a third time. He was no match for Cue Card twelve months ago and his only success last term came when dropped back to 2m5f in the Ascot Chase in February. He showed signs of enthusiasm in his reappearance run at Down Royal a couple of weeks ago, making the running until fading on the run to the second last. He should improve physically for that first run of the season, but in truth I think his best days are behind him and he could find it tough here.

With that in mind, I am going to take a chance on one of the younger members of the field whose best days may still be ahead of them. SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has won seven of his thirteen starts under rules and has only been out of the frame once in seven starts over the larger obstacles. That run was incidentally the only time he has tackled Grade 1 company over fences but the thing that Sandy Thomson’s eight-year-old has in his favour here is the forecast heavy going. Both of his Grade 2 successes have come on heavy ground and the way he jumped and travelled at Carlisle on his reappearance suggest that he may just have improved over the summer. His connections were eyeing a tilt at the Hennessy next weekend but they have decided to come here with conditions seemingly having fallen in their favour. On official ratings he has 22lb to find with the top-rated member of the field Cue Card but to my eye, he looks the only one who is likely to relish these very attritional conditions. As we saw in the Scottish National last year he stays all day and with the ground having come right for him, I think he is worth a punt at around the 7/1 mark.

Of the remainder of the field, the eleven-year-old Menorah is the only one of any interest having finished runner-up to Silviniaco Conti in this race two years ago. He was just behind Irish Cavalier in second in the Charlie Hall Chase on his most recent outing but his connections have indicated that he may not run if the ground is too soft, which would release Richard Johnson to partner Coneygree.

MY Advice

SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT – 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill)