The StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 26th November. Punjabi won this in 2008 before going on to win the Champion Hurdle and recent winners, Peddlers Cross, Overturn & My Tent Or Yours, all won it before finishing runner-up in the Cheltenham hurdling showpiece.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-4-9

5yo: 4-3-17

6yo: 3-0-14

7yo: 1-2-16

8yo: 1-1-5

9yo: 0-1-2

10yo+: 0-1-2

horses aged 4 to 6: 8-7-40

horses aged 7+: 2-5-25

5 & 6yos have accounted for 9 of the last 12 winners of this race.

The one 4yo winner in past 25 years was Countrywide Flame, who had won that year’s Triumph Hurdle.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 runners finished in the first 2 last time (exception fell at last when going well)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last hurdles start

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

8 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 9 hurdles

9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (exception was Harchibald in 2007, he had also won it in 2004)

5 of 7 second season hurdler winners had won a class 1 hurdle at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals that year

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 149+ over hurdles

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (2 exceptions missed Cheltenham that year & other 2 were7th in Champion Hurdle & 9th in Supreme)

4 of 10 winners contested a 2M grade 1 at that year’s Punchestown Festival



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from last year: 4P236 (0-1-5)

Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices' Hurdle: 131211 (4-1-6)

Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 3 (0-1-1)

British Stallion Studs EFB Novice Hurdle winner (North Hill Harvey): 5 (0-0-1)

Morebattle Hurdle winner (Top Notch): 6 (0-0-1)

Elite Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 65356 (0-0-5)

4 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in that's year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 2129

2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in WKD Hurdle, finishing 21

2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 24

2 of 7 second season hurdler winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Christmas Hurdle, finishing 442

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 51

2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 37

2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 21



Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-2-6) has trained the winner three times since 2000 (’01, ’08 & ‘13).

Henry de Bromhead (1-0-1) won this with Identity Thief in 2015.

Paul Nicholls (1-0-4) won the race for first time ever in 2014 with Irving.

Alan

Irish-trained runners (3-3-15) have won it 4 of last 12, though, 3 of 4 were provided by Noel Meade.



Price

8 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting & were priced 4/1 or shorter

Favourite has won 4 of last 10 but shows a level stakes loss of 2.15.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 or 6

- Finished in the first 2 last time out (posting RPR of 146+)

- Previously run in 4 to 9 hurdles (or previous winner of the Fighting Fifth)

- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

- Second or third season hurdler

- Officially rated 149+

- Finished in first 5 in a grade 1 at Punchestown Festival or

- Won at 2016 Cheltenham and/or Aintree Festivals

- horse that ran well in 2016 Supreme Novices' Hurdle should be respected

- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Henry De Bromhead