1.30 Newbury – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase.


This 2m6f looks a competitive one with a number of contenders coming in here in top form. The weights are headed by Evan Williams’ On Tour who finished last season by finishing eighth behind Ballyalton at the Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t look particularly well handicapped on that occasion but he turned in a fine effort on his return at Aintree earlier this month, chasing home Thomas Brown. He is entitled to improve for that initial outing and with the Williams yard in better form at present, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up once again here.

There aren’t many yards who have had more winners than Colin Tizzard in the last month and he saddles Gentleman John here. The eight-year-old has been on the go through the summer but he has found his best form in recent weeks, winning at Wincanton at the end of October before following up at the same venue a couple of weeks later. He was perhaps a little fortunate that Southfield Theatre came down at the last on the most recent of those runs but has still been raised 6lb by the handicapper. That could make life more difficult for him here and he is passed over as a result.

Gary Moore is always a man whose runners deserve a second look, especially in handicap company and there will be few easier winners at Ascot than Antony who turned his latest race into a precession when winning at the end of last month. That was the six-year-old’s second win in quick succession and he is clearly improving rapidly but it will be interesting to see how he fares with another 8lb on his back. One thing I noticed last time was his tendency to jump left which suggests that Newbury should suit him better and I find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame.

One of the more interesting runners in the field is IN THE ROUGH who has taken a while to get the hang of chasing but got off the mark in good style at Uttoxeter back in September. He was pitched into handicap company at Carlisle next time and travelled well for much of the way under Barry Geraghty but just seemed to be outstayed by his two rivals. That was over 3m2f so it is no surprise that connections have opted to drop him back in trip for this assignment. The Jonjo O’Neill stable is starting to fire out the odd winner and I suspect that this test will suit the unexposed seven-year-old. He also looks likely to run in the colours of Sir Peter O’Sullevan on Saturday, now in the possession of JP McManus and I fancy him to run a big race dropped back in trip.

Another interesting contender is Waldorf Salad who turned in some fine efforts from the front as a novice last term. He found the 4m National Hunt Chase stretching his stamina in March but he finished the season in style, winning off a mark of 131 at Chepstow in April. He races off just 4lb higher here and with Charlie Deutsch likely to make a bold bid from the front, you wouldn’t want to give this strong stayer too much rope back in trip.

Of the remainder, Charlie Longsdon’s Tjongejonge was a ready winner on his return to action at Market Rasen and despite going up 12lb, he could be open to further improvement. Whilst Warriors Tale’s run was too bad to be true last time and he could easily bounce back for the Paul Nicholls stable.

Advice

IN THE ROUGH – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)




1.55 Doncaster – Hennessy Betting at 188BET Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)


An interesting looking Novices’ Handicap Chase in which I’m willing to take a chance on SHANROE SANTOS each-way with just the nine runners. Thought highly enough of by connections to take his chance in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015 his future has always looked to lie over the larger obstacles and he should be capable of winning races off his current handicap mark of 128. His well-being has to be taken on trust having been off the track since pulling up at Ayr 589 days ago, but he achieved a rating of 135 over hurdles so should be competitive here if fit and well. The yard has also been going well from a select number of runners, sending out two winners from eight runners in the past fortnight. This son of Definite Article also won first time out for connections which bodes well, albeit that came at a much lower level. Another positive is that he was a comfortable winner of an Irish Point-to-Point before joining Lucy Wadham for £50,000 so I’m hopeful jumping won’t be too much of an issue and could be over-priced at 25/1.

There are plenty of others who look to hold strong claims, including four last time out chase winners, Veins Chercher being the most appealing of those for the Brian Ellison yard. He turned over the smart hurdler Blue Heron on his UK chasing debut, which looked impressive at the time. However, the runner-up was said to have needed the run after a long lay-off and has subsequently disappointed since, giving the impression he’s not the horse he once was. On that basis I think Ellison’s charge could be have been slightly flattered and will probably require a better performance to take this.

Drumlee Lad won by 17-lengths on his chasing debut and whilst he probably would have won had his nearest pursuer not fallen at the last, a mark of 121 seems pretty high given his hurdles mark is 113. I’dliketheoption is another last time out winner and represents powerful connections but he hasn’t looked the most natural chaser, so I’m willing to take him on.

Cusheen Bridge is a consistent sort and won off 125 at Market Rasen nine days ago, but after seven chase starts I’d suggest he was vulnerable to something less exposed here. On that note both Gold Present and Bigpipenotobacee have to be closely monitored in the betting for the Henderson and George yards respectively. The former lost his way over hurdles in the spring but is well-bred and has to be respected, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Whilst the latter has yet to win a race, he was going well when bought down at the second last in his final start between the flags and is one to watch, but he may be one for another day.

Fionn Mac Cul is the final contender I must touch on for Venetia Williams. He won two of his four starts over hurdles and like many of the yard’s horses, will come into their own over fences. However, I’m going to swerve the son of Oscar here as the stable are yet to hit full gear (six of the seven favourites or joint-favourites the yard have run in the last fortnight have been beaten), and both of his wins have come on heavy ground.

Advice

SHANROE SANTOS – 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfair)



2.05 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Hurdle.



With a varied and diverse mix of contenders, this race looks a decent contest with everything from four-year-old handicap debutants to ten-year-old stalwarts in this kind of company.

Gibralfaro sits in the aforementioned category and makes his open handicap debut after finishing 15 lengths behind Sceau Royal at Cheltenham and just beaten by two and a half lengths in a four-year-old handicap at Chepstow to start his season. Both of those races were over two miles and both performances seemed to suggest that this step up in trip to two and a half would suit quite nicely. He’s got plenty of ability and his handler, Alan King, is always adept at placing horses in the right place, but he wilted in the Triumph Hurdle in March and he does have quite a high mark for his introduction to this more experienced company.

Another four-year-old who’s an interesting entrant is Favorito Buck’s for Paul Nicholls. A comprehensive Listed three-year-old hurdle winner on his only start in France, he failed to show his ability when pulled up in a Juvenile Hurdle won by Gibralfaro at Kempton last December and was then well-beaten at Newbury in March in a modest-looking Juvenile Hurdle. The horse will have strengthened up this summer and we could see a totally different animal here, but even though he went off a well-backed favourite for both of those disappointing runs and more was clearly expected, he’s not really a backable proposition until he shows something better, especially off a very harsh looking mark of 137.

At the other end of the scale, Gassin Golf has plenty of experience in this type of race, running more than creditably on more than a few occasions. He finished second in the Imperial Cup of 2014, second in a Punchestown Novice Hurdle won by the high-class Arctic Fire, third in the 2015 Imperial Cup off a mark of 132 and won a valuable Handicap Hurdle here over two miles off the same mark as today, 135. Clearly, Kerry Lee’s charge is a horse that looks set to run his usual game race, but this step up in trip is a worry. His record over more than two miles reads: PU 3 5 3 PU, so he might be best watched until he returns to two miles.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Robinshill is in some excellent form at the moment, winning both of his runs this season in the style of a very well-handicapped horse. His last win, at Huntingdon, can be marked up further considering he was outpaced and then ran on well, despite hanging, to pick up a useful-looking Dan Skelton inmate in the closing stages. The penny is starting to drop with this son of Robin Des Champs and off just 5lb higher than for that win, he has to go down as a big threat. The trip is an unknown but his breeding and run style suggests he should be fine with it, but a bigger concern would be the ground if it stayed on the soft side. Both of his wins came on good ground and there might just be some stouter stayers over this trip on ground with a little juice in it.

Battle Born is an intriguing contender – off the track for 772 days, he was an exciting novice when last seen, hack1ng up on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter with the likes of Champagne At Tara 12 lengths in arrears. That horse is rated 135 over hurdles now, so if Charlie Longsdon’s charge retains all of his ability after such a long time off, his mark of 126 here will be woefully inadequate. However, it’s much more likely that this will serve as a fact-finding mission for Longsdon and I doubt that the horse will be subject to any harsh treatment in the closing stages if (and when) he gets tired, so while he might be best watched here, keeping him in the notebook for the future could well pay off handsomely if he’s anywhere near the animal he was two years ago.

Another who could be nicely handicapped is the Philip Hobbs-trained Onefitzall, who ran on promisingly at the end of a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Carlisle behind the smart Definitly Red. His jumping could do with some brushing up and he’ll probably relish three miles and a fence later on in his career, but a mark of 133 certainly looks a workable one for the time being. The Indian Danehill gelding has plenty more progress to come and shouldn’t be ruled out, but there’s another with plenty of ability and improvement to come that I can’t overlook.

Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR was well-fancied in the market for last week’s Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock before he was taken out at declarations. Although it seemed the logical race for this embryonic chaser to go for, it now seems a good move after the race was run in some extremely energy-sapping conditions and could have made the horse leave his season there. This is an easier task, despite having to carry 11st 11lb from a mark of 141, and with the track, trip and ground looking as if they’ll be perfect for him; he’s a rock-solid contender. His seasonal reappearance behind a handicap blot in Massini’s Trap was more than satisfactory and given the way that Skelton’s runners have been coming on plenty for a run this year, a 2lb higher mark should be no problem at all. The King’s Theatre gelding is hugely well thought of, especially when it comes to going chasing next season, so in a weaker race than his last run at Aintree, he should be very hard to beat.

Advice

BORN SURVIVOR – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, BetVictor)




2.20 Newcastle – Weatherbys Stallion Book Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap)


Only six runners for this race but Sandy Thomson’s Seldom Inn sets a pretty good standard having chased home Onenightinvienna at Carlisle earlier this month. A wide margin winner of a novice chase at Kelso in October, his jumping just let him down against his more experienced rival last time and back in novice company, he sets a pretty high standard for the rest to beat.

The only other member of the field with chasing experience is Gully’s Edge who was fourth of five at Carlisle earlier this month. Having won twice over 3m over hurdles last year it is possible that he might just have found the 2m4f test a bit sharp for him and so this step up in trip should be more suitable for him. He does have to improve a bit on that form if he is to have a say here but the yard are in fine form at present and it would be folly to rule him out.

However, the one who attracts most interest is CALETT MAD who has his first start for the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable tomorrow. Previously trained in France by Francois Nicolle, this four-year-old finished in the first four on all three of his starts and his final effort in a Listed hurdle twelve months ago showed a lot of promise. He is a half-brother to the smart chaser Ar Mad and as a four-year-old he gets a useful weight allowance, which means he carries 10st 8lb rather than the 11st 3lb that Dan Emmett, who is also rated 130 has on his back. Clearly we have to take quite a bit on trust but the indications are that this four-year-old is highly-rated and it would be no surprise to see him get off the mark at the first time of asking here over the bigger obstacles.

Of the remainder of the field, Bigirononhiship is perhaps most feared having won an Irish point at the second time of asking in May 2015. He made a winning debut over hurdles last year before bumping into the smart Tomngerry on two occasions and given his background, you would have to think that chasing will be his game.

Advice

CALETT MAD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, SkyBet)




2.30 Doncaster – Rugby Betting at 188BET Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.


Neil Mulholland is a trainer I rate highly and SLEEP EASY looks to have an excellent chance to make it 2-3 over hurdles. A progressive stayer on the Flat for Hughie Morrison this son of Rip Van Winkle looks a nice recruit having progressed to a rating of 82 before joining his new connections. His two runs over timber so far have been encouraging too. A winner on his hurdling debut at Stratford, he then stepped up on that to finish 3rd under a penalty behind the smart, Movewiththetimes, who ran with great credit against some of the most promising British Novice Hurdlers at Cheltenham next time out. This horse gave Movewiththetimes 7lbs at Fontwell so to get within less than five lengths of him rates as a very decent performance. The handicapper has since given him a mark of 132 which is fair enough, but James King takes off a valuable 7lbs. Many of you may not be aware of Mr King but he is a more than capable pilot. The 20-year-old has ridden 17 Point-to-Point winners, and 15 under Rules, two of which have come for Mulholland. His claim could prove a vital asset here and I would be very surprised if he didn’t win, or go very close to winning.

Our Thomas is an obvious danger having travelled well before weakening in the closing stages and should strip fitter here. Tim Easterby’s charge also has some smart juvenile form in the book and if his jumping has improved he could easily go well. My main concern is that he hasn’t managed to get his head in front since his hurdling debut and his yard have only had one winner of jumps this season.

Of the others Mystic Sky and Unison arrive here in good form and should run their respective races but I don’t think either are well-handicapped, so should find something less exposed and too good on the day. Seven Kingdoms has a lot to prove after bolting up on his British debut in January and having pulled up on his seasonal debut at Chepstow 49 days ago, can only be watched here.

Elsewhere, it’s too early to write off Dan Skelton’s Applesandpierres but having run no sort of race last time out at Wetherby, when going off favourite, it requires a big leap of faith to back him here. Whilst, Cornborough rattled off two wins earlier in the year but could still be in the hands of the handicapper off a 2lb higher mark than his latest win.

Advice

SLEEP EASY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)




2.40 Newbury – bet365 Intermediate Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)


Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of this race, including three of the last four and it could pay to focus on the juvenile graduates here. Nicky Henderson also has a good record in recent years, winning four of the last ten, making it no surprise to see Omessa Has vying for favouritism. However, it’s hard to make a strong case for her on form having had just one run in these shores, one which yielded a disappointing effort at Cheltenham in April when sent off a 13/2 shot. It was reported that she finished lame on that occasion, so can be forgiven that effort, but having won just one of her eight starts in France it’s very hard to know how well-handicapped she. On that basis I’m not prepared to find out by backing her at an incredibly skinny 3/1.

That leads me to the two other four-year-olds in the line-up and preference is for TOMMY SILVER, for Paul Nicholls, who won the race in 2011 with Rock On Ruby. A winner of the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial, he was sent off a 25/1 shot for the main event at the Festival, faring well to finish 7th just behind Clan Des Obeaux (an impressive winner on Friday’s card). That was a good effort, as was his subsequent run at Sandown when he was a close-up 3rd off a mark of 138. His seasonal reappearance came in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and whilst it was disappointing that he could only finish fifth of six, he was very keen and it was no surprise that he didn’t see out his race. He’s been given plenty of time (42 days) to recover from that and I think we will see a much better horse here. He proved at Sandown that he can be competitive off this mark and at 6/1 he I think he represents value against the front three in the betting.

Who Dares Wins is the third and final four-year-old in the field but he finished behind Tommy Silver in the Triumph and has to prove his early fall at Cheltenham two weeks ago hasn’t dented his confidence. For those reasons I’m willing to swerve Alan King’s challenger, especially at a a similar price to the selection.

Philip Hobbs won the race last year with Sternrubin and his five-year-old Ozzie Oscar is prominent in the betting having won well last time out at Wetherby, taking his record to 4-5 over hurdles. That was a good performance giving 8lbs to Zipple Black, who has since run well behind the promising Lough Derg Spirit. He’d be the one I fear most but this is another step up in class and I’m willing to take pass him over at 3/1 given we haven’t seen him run in handicap company.

Of the others Ritual Of Senses bled last time out so did well to finish third. However, this is a tough introduction for his seasonal bow and may appreciate a stiffer test in time. Theligny comes here in the search of a four-timer but a 5lb rise in a better race is likely to find him out. And Holly Brush Henry could easily out-run odds of 18/1 reverting back to hurdles, but has no margin for error of 139, 5lbs higher than his last winning mark.

Advice

TOMMY SILVER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)




2.55 Newcastle – stanjames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)


The Fighting Fifth takes centre stage on the Newcastle card, and whilst it looks a fairly weak affair for the grade it doesn’t make it any less intriguing, especially from a betting perspective. Recent history has suggested quality often comes to the fore with eight of the last ten renewals going to the first two in the betting and I certainly think the top two in the market are the ones to focus on.

Firstly, if you had been shown the six declared runners at the end of last season, Apple’s Jade would be a warm order to take this on the back of devastating wins at Aintree and Punchestown. However, an early season defeat by the 131-rated Rashaan in Grade 2 WKD Hurdle has suddenly given the one-time strong Champion Hurdle fancy something to prove. Bryan Cooper has also opted to partner Gigginstown’s other runner which is a strong indication as to Apple’s expectations. Gordon Elliott came out after the race and indicated the four-year-old would probably be stepped up in trip and I wouldn’t be interested in backing her until this happens, especially at 11/4(as short as 2/1 in places).

As touched on before, retained Gigginstown jockey Bryan Cooper has opted to ride Petit Mouchoir for the red hot Henry De Bromhead stable. It’s not hard to see why either after an eye-catching seasonal return behind Apple’s Jade. Not a lot went right that day and he may have even gone close to winning but for a a terrible mistake at the last flight. His close seconds in Grade 1 novice company at the end of last season show this son of Al Namix is still progressing and this assignment will tell us more as to where he stands for the rest of the season. But like Apple’s Jade, I think he will be suited by further in time.

This leads me on to the selection and SCEAU ROYAL, who arrives here in the form of his life. He was an above average juvenile at the start of last season and can be forgiven disappointing efforts at Cheltenham and Aintree, as Alan King’s yard were under a cloud at the time. It was therefore pleasing to see this son of Doctor Dino bounce back to form at Cheltenham in October. That performance was very eye-catching as he tanked through the race and quickened in the style of a seriously good horse when Daryl Jacob asked him to go and win the race. It was then a similar story at Wincanton in the Elite Hurdle when he gave his rivals weight and a beating. Again travelling well, he picked up stylishly when Jacob popped the question, quickly putting the race to bed. Zubayr may have fallen at the last but Sceau Royal had his measure, and this was a very good performance giving the Paul Nicholls horse 9lbs. The return to slower ground won’t be an issue either, and Daryl Jacob even said it was as quick as he’d want it last time out a Wincanton. This horse has some turn of foot, and travels well in his races too, the perfect attributes for a two-miler, and it will be a surprise if his rivals can match him. The 9/4 on offer is very appealing, especially given he has the least to prove at present, and for me he’s the one they all have to beat.

Irving can’t be overlooked lightly as he bids for his second victory in the race having won it back in 2014. His disappointing effort in the race last year can easily be ignored as it came on the back of two quick runs. He always goes well fresh, so this is the time of year to catch him, but at eight approaching nine, his best days are likely to be behind him and I find it hard to see him beating an improving and race-fit Sceau Royal.

Hidden Cyclone and Mirsaale complete the line-up and it would be a big shock if either were to come out on top. The former could easily make the frame going from the front but looks vulnerable on these terms nonetheless. As for the latter, whilst he is an admirable performer under both codes, he is rated 20lbs lower than Sceau Royal and Irving, and is playing for place money at best.

Advice

SCEAU ROYAL – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)





3.10 Newbury – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase.



One of the most important factors associated with the Hennessy Gold Cup is proven stamina especially given the demanding nature of the test that the twenty runners are likely to face. Only Madison Du Berlais and Many Clouds had not previously recorded a victory over 3m or further prior to coming here. Of this year’s field, the only one with question marks over his stamina is Regal Encore whose sole success over fences came over 2m1f at Plumpton in December. He was beaten just three-quarters of a length over 3m1f at Punchestown last timebut he still has to prove he has the stamina for this sort of a test.

With six of the last ten winners of the Hennessy taking part in their second season over fences, it is advisable to follow this group of horses. These horses tend to improve between their first and second season chasing and are often able to exploit their handicap mark at this time of year. This applies to many of those towards the head of the market with the likes of Native River, Blaklion and Vyta Du Roc all embarking on their second season over the bigger obstacles.

This also means that younger horses have tended to do well here over the years. To narrow it down, six and seven-year-olds have been the group to follow having been successful in seven of the last ten renewals, with the seven-year-olds accounting for five of those victories. Only eight of this year’s field fall into the desired bracket, the seven seven-year-olds Un Temps Pour Tout, Blaklion, Saphir Du Rheu, Vicente, Aubusson, Coologue and Vyta Du Roc and the sole six-year-old in the race, Native River.

Good recent form is also something that has stood horses in good stead over the years, in fact eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. It is probably fair to say that this is usually more a reflection of their ability than race fitness, with the likes of Trabolgan, State Of Play and Denman all having won this race on their seasonal debut. Nevertheless just under half of the field come here with the desired form credentials although the likes of Smad Place, Blaklion and Houblon Des Obeaux all fall at this obstacle.

Although it would be easy to think that a lower weight would be better, time has proven that may not be the case as eight of the last ten winners have carried 11st or more to victory. This is a strong trend and those falling on the right side of the divide this year are the top five as they appear in the racecard, so from Smad Place down to Blaklion.

The final factor to warrant some consideration is the strength of the betting market in recent years. Eight of the last ten winners of the Hennessy have come from the first six in the betting and therefore those towards the head of this year’s market should be favoured. There is scope to look for value in the race but with only two winning SPs greater than 10/1, it would be sensible not to look too far away from the market principals.

Shortlist

NATIVE RIVER – 6/6

Un Temps Pour Tout – 6/6

Blaklion – 5/6

Vyta Du Roc – 5/6


Conclusion


With all things considered, we have two horses which are very difficult to split at the head of the affairs, with each matching all six of our big race trends.

The one who gets the nod is NATIVE RIVER who looked a horse on the upgrade when winning the Grade 2 Novice Chase at this meeting twelve months ago. Colin Tizzard’s six-year-old went on to win in Grade 1 company at Aintree in the spring, following a fine run behind Minella Rocco in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks to have had this race as a target for some time and he comes here with race fitness on his side, having finished second over hurdles at the end of last month. Second season chasers have tended to fare well in recent years and he looks to have plenty going in his favour here.

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout who chased home Native River both here and at Aintree last season. On the second occasion, they were racing off level weights which suggests that Pipe’s seven-year-old might find it difficult to concede 3lb to his younger rival. A ready winner of a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival, he races off 10lb higher here but he might not be done improving just yet.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion also makes the shortlist having missed just one trend, courtesy of his fourth place finish in the Charlie Hall Chase in October. It is easy to excuse him that effort when you consider that the horses who finished in front of him that day were Irish Cavalier, Menorah and Cue Card, who would all have leading chances were they running here. He too has a bit to find with Native River on their Aintree form but it is possible that his win in the RSA may just have taken the edge off him. His trainer is adept at placing his horses and it would be no surprise to see this seven-year-old run a big race.

The final member of the shortlist is Vyta Du Roc who represents the Nicky Henderson stable, who have won this race twice in the last four years. The seven-year-old seemed to relish the step up to three miles when winning the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot in February and on a line through Minella Rocco, that puts him quite close to Native River. The ground was too quick for him in the RSA but he finished the campaign with a fine run in the Scottish National, where he finished fifth. The major advantage he has is that he gets nearly a stone from Native River and with a prep run under his belt, I find it hard to see him being out of the shake-up.

Advice

NATIVE RIVER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Betfred, Paddy Power)




3.30 Newcastle – At The Races Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race)


In terms of the ‘box-office’, Bristol De Mai is the big name in this year’s renewal of this stayers’ handicap and on class alone, he’d have a favourite’s chance here. An excellent second place in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and a brilliant performance in running away with the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown Park are the best pieces of form in the field, but this is his first run in handicap company and his first over this three mile trip. The distance would be a major concern for a horse that has never really been considered as a stayer, but as more a middle distance type with a turn of foot. His reappearance run behind Seeyouatmidnight over two and a half miles was promising until the third last, where he jumped into the back of his rival and weakened from there, so he should be plenty sharper now but the trip looks like it will stretch him to his limit, especially given the competition he would have for the lead.

One who will certainly not have an issue with the three miles is Kerry Lee’s Bishops Road, who won on his first two starts for Lee, including in the Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock in desperate conditions. He unseated at the first in the Topham Chase after just missing the cut for the Grand National itself, before falling at the first in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Clearly then, jumping is an issue and a summer break will have to have remedied whatever it was that was going wrong, not mentioning the ground will also be quicker than for his best performances in the past.

Definitly Red is a seven-year-old that has the potential to rank highly in the three-mile handicap chasing division this season, especially off a mark of 142, 5lb lower than his hurdles mark. Being beaten into second by two and three-quarter lengths by Black Hercules and eight lengths by Blaklion is some very useful form indeed and despite disappointing in the four-miler at the Festival, he bounced back to win a Listed chase over two and a half miles at Ayr next time out. His hurdles win on his first run this season was very encouraging, Brian Ellison’s yard is in great form at the moment and he can go well here off a mark of 142. However, he’s been well-found in the market and the 3/1 generally on offer doesn’t jump out as great value given that this is his first run amongst some battle-hardened handicappers in conditions that may be softer than ideal over this trip.

Last year’s winner, Wakanda, lines up here off a 7lb higher mark than 12 months ago, but just 1lb higher than the mark he won the Listed Silver Cup from at Ascot two weeks later. The seven-year-old is a tough, hardy horse for Sue Smith and if getting his own way in front, is a danger to all in the race. However, his reappearance run in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was distinctly uninspiring and even though he’s entitled to come on plenty for that, I’m minded to wait and see if he can rediscover that high-class form from last season before recommending him.

VIRAK chased home Sue Smith’s charge last year and is only 2lb higher this time around, even though his rider, Harry Cobden, will only be able to claim 3lb rather than the 7lb he managed to take off last year. So effectively, he’s 6lb higher than for last year’s attempt at taking this race. However, his reappearance run in the Charlie Hall was a much better effort, just twelve lengths back from the winner and nine away from the magnificent Cue Card. He’s a horse that battles and stays, jumps well and has carried big weights with credit in competitive affairs on soft ground plenty of times before, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t run a great race again today. The surface will suit him and a mark of 155 is definitely one that he can go very well off, given that he was an unlucky second to Wakanda in the same Listed race at Ascot off 158. Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old has been a hugely consistent, high-class animal over the past few years and winning this would be a richly deserved reward.

Advice

VIRAK – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)




3.45 Newbury – Bet365 Handicap Chase.


The final race of the day at Newbury is this 2m handicap chase and supporters of Ulck Du Lin will be hoping for a better showing than at Ascot when he was tailed off on his return to action. The eight-year-old isn’t the easiest of rides as he tends to be keen and it might just be that that first run takes some of the freshness out of him and makes him a bit more tractable here. Paul Nicholls also takes the step of putting young 7lb conditional Jordan Williams on his back which should make life a little easier for the eight-year-old. On his best form a mark of 140 is not insurmountable and if he can bounce back to form, he could have a big say in proceedings.

The five-year-old Fou Et Sage is the youngest member of the field but he has plenty of experience over fences, with this being his eighth start over the bigger obstacles. He had a disappointing spell with Dan Skelton last year but following a return to his native France, he shaped with some promise at Wetherby at the end of October. The ground may just have been quick enough for him that day and this softer surface should show him in a better light. Harry Whittington is a trainer who has done well in such a short space of time and having had a winner on this day last year, he looks to have another leading chance this time around.

There are a number of horses towards the bottom of the weights who come here in good form, notably Raven’s Tower who got the better of Keel Haul when winning at Aintree earlier this month. He seemed to appreciate the drop back to the minimum distance but his trainer seemed to indicate that the six-year-old would find it difficult to win off a raised mark and he has gone up 7lb for his latest success.

Instead, it might be best to look towards Ut Majeur Aulmes who progressed nicely last Spring, winning over course and distance in March before following up at Newton Abbot later in the month. That latest success came with a 7lb conditional on board and he has only been raised 3lb by the handicapper on the back of that effort. As this is his first run of the season, we have to take his fitness on trust but he might not be done improving just yet.

We should also give a mention to Lucinda Russell’s Imjoeking who won with plenty in hand at Kelso last time although this promises to be a tougher assignment. He jumped really well out in front under Derek Fox that day and he is likely to be ridden handily again here. He does have a 6lb rise in the weights to contend with but he is clearly in fine fettle at present and can’t be ruled out.

However, I think the one they all have to beat is GREY GOLD who took this race twelve months ago on his seasonal reappearance and I fancy him to go close once again this time around. His form seemed to tail off after that reappearance run but I think that he is the sort of horse that is best fresh and this might be the best time to catch the eleven-year-old. Kerry Lee’s Kylemore Lough lost nothing in defeat last weekend under Jamie Moore and I think she will be hoping for a bold show here. he is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark and despite having to concede weight all round, he gets the nod.

Advice

GREY GOLD – 1pt win @ 9/1 (Paddy Power