The Betfair Tingle Creek Chase takes place at Sandown this Saturday, 3rd December. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe & Sprinter Sacre.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 2-3-9

6yo: 3-4-14

7yo: 3-3-12

8yo: 0-1-14

9yo: 2-2-14

10yo: 0-1-8

11yo+: 0-0-4

horses aged 5 to 7: 8-11-35

horses aged 8+: 2-4-40

8 of last 9 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred.

The last 3 Irish bred winners were aged 9+.



Breeding

French bred: 8-6-32

Irish bred: 1-7-31

British bred: 1-1-7

Other: 0-0-6

8 of 10 winners were French bred. The last two Irish bred winners had both previously won the Champion Chase.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 164+ last time

8 of 10 winners had previously run that season

10 of 10 winners had won a chase by 9 lengths or more

8 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (2 exceptions had won a grade 2)

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 15 chases (2 exceptions had won the race 2 years previous)

5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 others having first run here & one placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle on only course run)



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Sir De Grugy): 17 (1-0-2)

Highest finisher in champion chase (): 621311724 (3-2-9)

Game Spirit Chase winner (Top Gamble): 1115 (3-0-4)

Maghull Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 1214 (2-1-4)

Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Ar Mad): 4113 (2-0-4)

Arkle winner (Douvan): 221 (1-2-3)

Previous season's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 3333 (0-3-4)

Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 3 (0-1-1)

Haldon Gold Cup winner (Sir Valentino): 273 (0-1-3)

Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 7 (0-0-1)

Shawbrook H'cap Chase winner (Sir De Grugy): 44 (0-0-2)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing F1F414

5 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 1112U

2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 35

2 of 10 winners ran in the Shloer Chase, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 1F

3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Maghulls Novice Chase, finishing 114

3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing F14

3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, finishing 211

2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in November Novices' Chase, finishing 21



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (6-2-18) has won 6 of the last 10 runnings. But for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained all 10 winners between 2002 and 2011.

Gary Moore (2-0-3) has trained Sire De Grugy to win this in 2013 & 2015.

Nicky Henderson (1-2-6) saddled Sprinter Sacre to win in 2012 & also a placed finisher in 2010 & 2013.

Henry De Bromhead (1-1-2) trained the winner in 2011 and runner-up in 2015.

Irish trained runners (1-2-7) have won this in 2004 & 2011.



Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

9 of 10 winners since 2006 went off 6/1 or shorter.

Dodging Bullets at 9/1 in 2014 has been the biggest upset since 2000.

Favourites (6-3-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.04.


Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10

- Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 164+)

- Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2016 Cheltenham Festival)

- Previously won a grade 1 chase

- Previously won a chase by 10 lengths or more

- Previously won at Sandown (or having first course start)

- Won 2015 Tingle Creek, 2016 Game Spirit and/or 2016 Celebration Chase

- Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull, Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novices' Chase

- Finished in first 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Shloer Chase last time

- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Gary Moore