The Betfair Tingle Creek Chase takes place at Sandown this Saturday, 3rd December. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Sizing Europe & Sprinter Sacre.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 2-3-9
6yo: 3-4-14
7yo: 3-3-12
8yo: 0-1-14
9yo: 2-2-14
10yo: 0-1-8
11yo+: 0-0-4
horses aged 5 to 7: 8-11-35
horses aged 8+: 2-4-40
8 of last 9 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred.
The last 3 Irish bred winners were aged 9+.
Breeding
French bred: 8-6-32
Irish bred: 1-7-31
British bred: 1-1-7
Other: 0-0-6
8 of 10 winners were French bred. The last two Irish bred winners had both previously won the Champion Chase.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 164+ last time
8 of 10 winners had previously run that season
10 of 10 winners had won a chase by 9 lengths or more
8 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (2 exceptions had won a grade 2)
8 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 15 chases (2 exceptions had won the race 2 years previous)
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 others having first run here & one placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle on only course run)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Sir De Grugy): 17 (1-0-2)
Highest finisher in champion chase (): 621311724 (3-2-9)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Top Gamble): 1115 (3-0-4)
Maghull Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 1214 (2-1-4)
Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Ar Mad): 4113 (2-0-4)
Arkle winner (Douvan): 221 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 3333 (0-3-4)
Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 3 (0-1-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Sir Valentino): 273 (0-1-3)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 7 (0-0-1)
Shawbrook H'cap Chase winner (Sir De Grugy): 44 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing F1F414
5 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 1112U
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shloer Chase, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 1F
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Maghulls Novice Chase, finishing 114
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing F14
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, finishing 211
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in November Novices' Chase, finishing 21
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (6-2-18) has won 6 of the last 10 runnings. But for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained all 10 winners between 2002 and 2011.
Gary Moore (2-0-3) has trained Sire De Grugy to win this in 2013 & 2015.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-6) saddled Sprinter Sacre to win in 2012 & also a placed finisher in 2010 & 2013.
Henry De Bromhead (1-1-2) trained the winner in 2011 and runner-up in 2015.
Irish trained runners (1-2-7) have won this in 2004 & 2011.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
9 of 10 winners since 2006 went off 6/1 or shorter.
Dodging Bullets at 9/1 in 2014 has been the biggest upset since 2000.
Favourites (6-3-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.04.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
- Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 164+)
- Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2016 Cheltenham Festival)
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Previously won a chase by 10 lengths or more
- Previously won at Sandown (or having first course start)
- Won 2015 Tingle Creek, 2016 Game Spirit and/or 2016 Celebration Chase
- Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull, Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novices' Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Shloer Chase last time
- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Gary Moore
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