Sandown and Aintree - saturday 3/12/2016

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12.20 Sandown – Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle.


Ten go to post for this novices’ hurdle, but there’s a few that look like deadwood straight away and it’s difficult to make much of a case for anything outside the first 5 in racecard order.

Dashing Oscar carries a penalty for his win at Bangor three weeks ago, which turned out to be a very comfortable win after his stablemate Drumcliff disappointed. Harry Fry’s six-year-old ended up a 13-length winner, but the form of the race doesn’t look very strong and it’s questionable what he achieved, even though it was a nice start to life over hurdles. The penalty may make life a little too difficult for him here, especially amongst some useful and promising rivals.

Also a last-time-out winner, American Gigolo represents Charlie Mann and makes his debut over hurdles having comfortably taken a Wincanton bumper a month ago, defeating a well-fancied Nicholls runner in the process. He’ll enjoy the decent ground that he’ll get here and runs over hurdles rather than try to defy a penalty in a bumper, so doesn’t get hit in the weights. He’ll be relatively unfancied here due to his lesser-known connections and stable, but this relative of Daneking should go well if he takes to obstacles.

Gary Moore targets this meeting year after year and has Crystal Lad to represent him here. His second over C&D behind Khezerabad last month is decent form, especially given he had Alan King’s Azzerti in behind, and you’d think he’d try to put his experience to good use from the front. This ex-pointer will probably need further in time though and may lack the turn of foot to deal with a couple of his rivals here, even though he’s likely to show up very well for a long way.

The two that look as if they’ll have the race between them were both very impressive bumper winners on their last starts and Tom George’s Cruiseaweigh definitely looks like one to keep the right side of. A close second behind the very useful Movewiththetimes on his debut at Wincanton, this five-year-old then stepped up to beat a decent-looking field at Aintree, including Elgin, who went on to boost the form considerably when taking care of Malcolm Jefferson’s useful Dubai Angel in a maiden hurdle at Newcastle last weekend. The five-year-old by Oscar has a lovely pedigree, being out of an Anshan mare from a family of some smart staying chasers, but it does also indicate that he might just need further than this – his trainer, George, spoke of how he’d be looking for a ‘galloping track’ for his hurdle debut over two miles, so despite looking a very useful prospect indeed, he might be tapped for toe by the remaining runner.

Nicky Henderson always does well in decent novice hurdles at this time of year, but his record in this race is staggering. He has trained the winner in each and every of the last seven renewals of this race, so his entry, BARDD, has to be treated with the utmost respect. Caracci Apache, Vaniteux, Tetlami, Master Of The Hall and Clay Hollister all won this race on their hurdling debuts and this four-year-old son of Dylan Thomas could well be the next in line. He has shown significant greenness on his first two runs in bumpers, firstly in finishing second to Laval Noir at Huntingdon when looking as if he was in front too long, and then when winning here at Sandown Park. He defeated Warren Greatrex’s well-backed Potters Approach that day despite being carried left over a furlong out in a slowly-run race and running green when hitting the front, but what was striking was the way he stretched clear when Jeremiah McGrath got him organised. If the penny is dropping and he finds obstacles concentrate him better, he could keep improving at a rate of knots. Among a few types that will ideally want a bit further, I think he’ll track the leaders for most of the race before unleashing his potent turn of foot late on to devastating effect.

Advice

BARDD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)



12.30 Aintree – Betfred Watch Sky Sports In Our Shops Handicap Chase.


The switch to fences on good ground resulted in a transformation in form for Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD, and he looks to hold strong claims to make it two from two in his new discipline. During his hurdling career the Skelton’s were always open that this horse was always a chaser for the future, and that they’d look after him over hurdles. That resulted in him running off a mark of 120 at Kempton last time and he duly obliged with any amount in hand. Also, after winning on him at Ayr last season Harry Skelton said ‘he hated the (soft) ground’ and his most recent win was the first time he’d encountered officially good ground since his Irish Point-to-Point win, so he is clearly more at home on a sounder surface. The forecast ground on the Mildmay course at Aintree this weekend is good, good to soft in places, so conditions should be perfect for the son of Central Park. The five-year-old did show a tendency to jump left-handed so it’s no surprise connections have opted to send this horse the other way round, another positive for his chances here. However, there are some question marks, mainly the 10lb higher mark he has to contend with in a better race, but visually he was very impressive at Kempton and he looked as if an extra 10lb wouldn’t have made any difference. The second concern is that this is only his second start over fences (under Rules) and his chasing debut came in a small field, but as touched on before, he is a Point-to-Point winner and is very much a chaser on looks. Overall I think he is the most intriguing horse in the line-up and he’s completely unexposed, so it would be a huge disappointment if he wasn’t bang there fighting out the finish.

The obvious danger is Cernunnos for the in-form Tom George stable. He’s slipping down the weights and becoming well-handicapped. He shaped like he was coming back to form at Wincanton last time out, however, that came over an extended 3m2f at Wincanton and the drop in trip looks a strange one to me. He’s also only won one of his 11 starts in Britain, despite consistently being strong in the market. He certainly has the ability to pop up at some stage but he doesn’t represent a viable betting proposition at present.

The Fresh Prince is another contender for the 2015 Grand National winning connections and he could easily put his seasonal debut well and truly behind him. The yard are in much better form than they were in the earlier weeks of the season – 9 of the 12 runners in the past fortnight have finished in the first three – and this son of Robin Des Pres cannot be overlooked easily. Like the selection he is an Irish Point-to-Point winner whose future was always going to lie over fences and a rating of 118 could easily underestimate him. However, my main concern with him is the ground as his Point and Hurdle wins both came on soft ground.

Other than the three I’ve touched on I find it hard to recommend any of the others runners. Baileys Concerto is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but recent performances suggest he may need the handicapper to relent a little further before the 10-year-old can be competitive in a race of this nature. Whilst in contrast Formidableopponent, Ballycoe, Cusheen Bridge and Somchine have all being running well recently but now look in the hands of the handicapper as a result.


Advice

OLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)




1.00 Aintree – Betfred “Happy 50th John Mckenna” Novices´ Hurdle.


This 2m1f contest often throws up a nice horse with Ballybolley and Agrapart having taken the last two renewals and although we don’t have much to go on, this year’s race also looks to have its fair share of quality.

There are two members of the field who already have a victory over hurdles to their name, the first of which is Good Tradition, who has his first start for the Donald McCain yard. Formerly trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld, the five-year-old quickened up smartly to win a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan in August, after which he was purchased for £13,000 at the sales. His victory came at the fourth attempt over obstacles so he might be open to less improvement than some of his rivals, although Harry Stock takes a useful 7lb off his back.

The only other winner in the race is CHARLEMAR who made a promising start to life over hurdles when winning at Chepstow at the beginning of last month. Harry Whittington has made big strides in a short space of time with a license and this French bumper winner was bought to replace Arzal, who had performed so well for the yard before getting injured last year. He jumped well on the whole on his first start over hurdles especially the last couple when they were really racing and he should have a good chance of defying a penalty. The form of his race has worked out pretty well with the third Criq Rock going close next time and I think his experience could make all the difference here.

However, there are a number of other interesting candidates, most notably Minotaur who has his first start for Jonjo O’Neill on Saturday. The four-year-old had a fine campaign on the flat this term winning four times including a comfortable four length success in a Listed contest on his final start in September. He fetched a whopping 340,000 euros when he went through the sale ring in October and clearly big things are expected of him in this new discipline. I expect he will attract market support and could well go off favourite but with that in mind I would prefer to be on the one with experience and hence I have chosen Charlemar.

Ian Williams’ yard is in fine form at present and he saddles Banditry who shaped with some promise when fifth behind the smart Thomas Campbell at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He won his last two starts on the flat in October but was given plenty to do on his hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago and he made good late headway under Tom Scudamore. He should be a lot wiser for that outing and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward here.

The final one to mention is Dan Skelton’s Atlantic Storm who was unfancied on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon and having been ridden patiently, he weakened late on to finish sixth. He is a half-brother to the smart Tagrita and I’m sure better is expected of him going forward so despite his below-par showing last time, we should learn more about him here.

Advice


CHARLEMAR – 1pt win @ 3/1(bet365, BetVictor)




1.20 Sandown – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)


These Pertemps Qualifiers are always competitive races and this one looks no different with a mixture of high-class and improving performers.

The weights are headed by Fingal Bay who won the Final of this race two years ago off the same mark as he races today. Since then the ten-year-old has mixed top-class races both over hurdles and fences but there were signs that he was just starting to lose his way towards the end of last season in various combinations of headgear. All of the headgear was left off for his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham last month and he ran with plenty of promise, just getting tired in the closing stages which was understandable given that was his first outing since April. With normal improvement, he should be right in the mix and with Ciaran Gethings also taking 5lb off his back, he has to be high on any shortlist.

Even with Ciaran Gethings’ claim taken into account, he still has to concede at least 6lb to the rest of the field including Killala Quay who has his first start over hurdles since finishing fifth in the Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree in 2014. In the subsequent eighteen months he has done well over fences and landed a Grade 2 last February at Kempton. However, he has already had two runs over the bigger obstacles this season and on both occasions he has been pulled up so he is probably best left alone on this occasion.

Paul Nicholls often does well at this meeting and he saddles Rainy City here who bumped into the smart Emerging Force on his chasing debut in October. Prior to that, he had won two novice hurdles by wide margins in May and June before finishing a close second to the well-regarded Templeross in September. He starts off life in handicaps off a mark of 134 and if he handles the step up in trip, he should be in the shake-up.

There are a couple of last time out winners who come here with strong claims including Sirop De Menthe who showed a fine attitude to hold off the game Red Devil Lads at Ffos Las a couple of weeks ago. He has gone up 5lb for that victory but more of a concern may be this sounder surface as most of his best form has come on soft or heavy ground.

One horse who should appreciate the good to soft ground is Ian Williams’ Blue Rambler who made a winning return to hurdles at Wetherby at the end of October. The six-year-old was fit from running on the flat, having finished sixth in the Cesarewitch earlier in the month and he made a mockery of his hurdles mark, winning with plenty in hand under Brian Hughes. He has been raised 9lb on the back of it but with the step up in trip likely to suit, further improvement can’t be ruled out on just his sixth hurdles start.

However, the one of most interest is ARCTIC GOLD who signed off last season with a win at Ffos Las and he looked capable of being competitive off a mark of 135 when sixth at Cheltenham last time. That was his first run for a while and he looked likely to improve for the run but he was right in the mix until making a mistake at the second last. The handicapper actually dropped him 2lb for that run and his trainer has given him a further helping hand by putting 10lb claimer Tom Humphries on his back. He should relish going back up in trip and with that run now under his belt I think he has a solid each-way chance.

The final one to mention is Charlie Mann’s Some Kinda Lama who seems to have turned a corner of late, having won his last two starts. The latest of those saw him win a handicap off a mark of 118, making just about all and he has to be considered here despite an 8lb rise in the weights. This is clearly more competitive but he doesn’t have much weight on his back and he might have more than a say in the outcome of this race.


Advice

ARCTIC GOLD – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (bet365)




1.35 Aintree – Betfred Becher Chase (HANDICAP }


With nine of the last ten winners aged nine or older, and only six winners younger than nine since 1992, this is not the race to be taking a chance on a younger participant. Just under half the field sit outside this desired bracket including some of the market principals Ucello Conti, Viconte Du Noyer and The Last Samuri amongst them.

Perhaps one of the reasons for the limited success of younger runners is that they often have limited experience over the bigger obstacles. Only three of the last ten winners had run in less than 10 chases prior to lining up here and three of today’s field also fall into this category, meaning that Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur and Sizing Coal all look up against it here. All of this trio miss the age trend as well so I would be happy to rule these out of contention at this stage based on the strength of both trends.

Race fitness is something that can also play a big part in this race given the 3m 2f trip and the good to soft ground that runners are likely to encounter. However the fact that eight of the last ten winners had had no more than one run during the current season, it is best to be aware of fresher rivals. The bottom half of the racecard for this race is littered with including the likes of Midnight Prayer, Gas Line Boy, Dare To Endeavour and Cogry.

The weight carried can often make a difference in these staying races and it is interesting to note that only three of the last ten winners carried more than 11st to victory. This would suggest that the top six as they appear in the racecard may struggle under their heavy burdens, however The Young Master and Double Ross get a reprieve as their jockeys’ claims takes them down to the 11st mark.

Given the nature of the fences it is little surprise that good jumpers often do well in this race. In fact, the 2014 winner Oscar Time was the only winner in the last decade to have fallen or unseated more than once during his career. There are nine horses in this year’s field who can be eliminated on this basis with Double Ross, Saint Are, Alvarado and Portrait King amongst them.

Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful trainer in this race with five victories to his name courtesy of Indian Tonic (1993), Young Hustler (1995), Earth Summit in 1998 and Hello Bud in both 2010 and 2012. He saddles two runners this time around in the shape of the ten-year-old Double Ross and the seven-year-old Cogry.

With only one winning favourite in the last decade, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic when opposing the market leaders. An average winning SP of around 14/1 also supports this idea as well as the fact that only half of the horses sent off favourite have finished in the first four. It would therefore be wise to factor in the poor record of those towards the head of the market when narrowing down the shortlist.

Shortlist

HIGHLAND LODGE – 6/7

Bob Ford – 6/7

Financial Climate – 6/7


Conclusion


All of our runners miss at least one of the trends but the marginal preference is for HIGHLAND LODGE who bids to become the first back-to-back winner of the race. James Moffatt’s ten-year-old narrowly missed the cut for the Grand National in April and was last seen being pulled up in the Scottish version at Ayr the following week. Having finished eighth in this race in 2014, he improved a good deal to win last year’s race and off just 5lb higher he shouldn’t be too far away this time around. Clearly his fitness has to be taken on trust but he looks to have plenty going in his favour once again and he should be right in the shake-up.

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Bob Ford who isn’t the easiest to predict but on his day he is a pretty smart performer. Rebecca Curtis’ nine-year-old fell for the first time under rules in the Welsh National last season but he is an otherwise sound jumper so he shouldn’t have too many problems around here. He is just 2lb above his last winning mark and with Jonathan Moore taking a valuable 3lb off his back, if he is in the right frame of mind, he could outrun his sizeable odds.

The final member of the shortlist is Financial Climate who will be racing from 6lb out of the handicap. Oliver Sherwood’s nine-year-old ran a fine race in this last year and might have finished closer but for suffering interference at the elbow. He hasn’t shown much form since but there were signs of a return to form on his comeback at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago and he too could run better than his odds suggest.


Advice


HIGHLAND LODGE – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)




2.25 Sandown – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed).


An interesting Listed Handicap Hurdle with sixth of the 10 runners trading between 11/2 and 6/1 in the early betting exchanges. Zubayr tops the weights and is one of the fancied runners, but for me he may need a step up in trip to be seen at his best. Despite being in receipt of 9lbs he was readily outpaced by Sceau Royal before falling in the Elite Hurdle, and it would be some performance to give weight away all-round here.

Brain Power comes next for Nicky Henderson, and he was steadily progressive last season but probably needed the run first time out in the Greatwood three weeks ago. He should strip fitter for that outing but I have the feeling he will bump find one or two too good here. The same can also be said for Bertimont who ran okay after a long layoff at Ascot a fortnight ago. He has smart form in the book and does look over-priced at 20/1, but with this coming just two weeks after such a long absences he is overlooked on this occasion.

Consul De Thaix is certainly an interesting contender, and a second representative for the Nicky Henderson stable who have won three of the last ten renewals. He only has three starts to his name, two of which have come on British shores at Cheltenham. He ran well in a warm Triumph Hurdle trial before finishing 10th of 15 in the main event at the Festival. He is a horse I will be keeping my eye on but I’d like to see how he fares here first.

Wishfull Dreaming made an impressive seasonal debut at Chepstow before somewhat disappointing when well-fancied for a race at Cheltenham soon after. It’s a feasible excuse that the race came too soon, however this is a much deeper race than the Chepstow event. He has also been raised 7lbs by the assessor, and whilst he could well cope with the rise he looks short enough in the betting for me.

This leads me to one at a similar price but could well be a cut above his rivals, and that’s Dan Skelton’s INDIETIR. He makes his first start since arriving from France and a mark of 141 could well underestimate his ability. He was second on his most recent start, finishing ahead of the smart Device, who has won six of his next eight starts (would have been seven had he not fallen at the last most recently). There is an element of guess work as to the strength of his French form but his new handler has confessed ‘he’s a very good horse’ with ‘a lot of speed’. He beat Voix Du Reve in a match race during his time across the channel and that rival fell when with every chance in the Fred Winter, and was second at Sandown next time out off a mark of 144, which suggests to me that the selection is fairly treated off 141 here.

Graasten is another fancied runner for the Moore family. Gary’s runners always warrant respect at this meeting but he would need to step up markedly from his recent success in a Maiden Hurdle at Plumpton. He does have a featherweight, but I can’t see him beating some of these promising types.


Advice


INDIETIR – 1pt win @ 11/2 (Boylesports, William Hill, RaceBets)




3.00 Sandown – Betfair Tingle Creek Steeple Chase (Grade 1)


With the non-declaration of Douvan, this Grade 1 looks wide open and there are four real contenders to the prize. Sir Valentino will have to improve hand over fist to be competitive here, while Vibrato Valtat needs to find the best part of 10lbs to hit the frame and Paul Nicholls will be hoping that first-time cheekpieces can help.

Sire De Grugy heads the four obvious contenders and after his runaway handicap win off top-weight at Ascot last week, he looks like he’s bang in form for his Tingle Creek hat-trick bid. Winner in 2013, his double came up last year, where he held off Special Tiara in somewhat controversial fashion. That race looks much weaker than this year’s renewal, so he’ll have to improved again to go in here, even though his race fitness and love of Sandown could count for plenty. However he’s a ten-year-old now, and only one other ‘veteran’ has ever won the race in double figures, Moscow Flyer – to say Sire De Grugy is not in the same league is rather an understatement. He should run his usual game race, but there could be one or two too good.

Stablemate Ar Mad was an extremely exciting novice last season and his win in the Henry VIII sticks in the memory as one of the most spot on rounds of front-running and jumping that I’ve seen at Sandown Park. However, injury ruled him out of a crack at the Arkle and this will be his first run in 292 days – moving from Novice company to Grade 1 open company is a tough enough task without having to prove you’re injury-free and fit as well. Joshua Moore has already said he’ll come on for the run and I expect that even though it’ll be impossible to curtail his impressive bold instincts, he might do too much early and get picked up later on in the race.

In amongst the furore about Douvan’s non-declaration, I think it’s rather been missed that Willie Mullins has still sent over a four-time Grade 1 winner in Un De Sceaux to contest this race and the available prices of 15/8 are pretty generous considering that he’s only been beaten by Sprinter Sacre over fences when he’s stood up. Obviously, there is always the danger of him falling given his exuberant style and how tough the fences can be here at Sandown Park, but the bare fact that he’s never finished behind any of these rivals is an important one. Another worry could be that Ar Mad will take him on up front and those two could burn themselves out, but he’s been taken on before and left rivals in his dust. On all known form, he’s a strong recommendation.

If there’s one that might upset the Mullins applecart, it could be Tom George’s high-quality chaser, God’s Own. He’s run well in two competitive affairs over two and a half miles so far this season without winning, but the combination of that further trip and the extra weight he’s had to carry, courtesy of his excellent successes in Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown at the end of last season, stopped him from entering the winners’ enclosure. Back at two miles and not having to give weight to anything, he could be a real dark horse considering he had Vautour behind him in the spring – there is the suspicion that he’s a spring horse, but he’s high-class at any time of year and could be the surprise if Un De Sceaux fails to run to form.


Advice


UN DE SCEAUX – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power, BetVictor