The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 29th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and Hurricane Fly, who won 5 renewals. The two key races, which provide pointers for this recently, are the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and Ryanair Hurdle.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 0-1-10
6yo: 2-3-13
7yo: 1-3-11
8yo: 2-1-7
9yo: 1-2-5
10yo+: 4-1-11
6yos have the best individual record having won 5 of the last 15 renewals and were not represented in 5 of the other 9 runnings since 2002.
7 of 8 winners 8+ had previously won the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle (other was 3rd in previous season’s Champion Hurdle)
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (8 won)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 160+ last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 151 & 157)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (exception was making seasonal debut but had won previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (exception had won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was placed on both previous runs here and other having first course run)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Faugheen): 2221111 (4-3-7)
Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Petit Mouchoir): 2341141113 (5-1-10)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 851231113 (4-1-9)
Champion Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 21131 (3-1-5)
Hatton's Grace winner (Apple's Jade): 2P142 (1-2-5)
Aintree Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 631 (1-0-3)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Footpad): 42 (0-0-2)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Ivanovich Gorbatov): 24 (0-0-2)
Istabraq Hurdle winner (Ivan Grozny): 435 (0-0-3)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 31111121
7 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle last time, finishing 3111111
6 of 10 winners finished ran in previous Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 413141
5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 71111
5 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 11112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 21
Trainers
Willie Mullins (6-3-13) saddled Hurricane Fly to win this 5 times and also Faugheen to win it last year.
Henry De Bromhead (1-0-1) trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2008.
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were priced 10/3 or shorter
Favourites (7-2-11) have won 7 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.22.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or a previous Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner
- Won last time out
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time
- Run 2 or 3 times this season
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Finished in first 4 in 2016 Champion Hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in 2016 Irish Champion and/or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle
- Won the Ryanair, Morgiana and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
- Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record)
- Trained by Willie Mullins
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