QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2011



The 2011 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 14th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick the action off for what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The race already looks one of the highlights of the week with the likely clash of last year’s winner, Goldikova, and the top 3yo miler from last season, Canford Cliffs.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 7-6-56
5yo: 3-7-30
6yo+: 0-6-16
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
Not a whole lot to choose between the 4 and 5 year olds, though you have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.

Gender
Last year Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
Eight fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 76247321 (1-3-8).
6 of the 8 mares were sent off at less than 8/1 (4 were favourite)

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
9 of 10 winners had had 9 to 17 career starts
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a Group 1
7 of 8 winners had won a Group 1 since this became a group 1 in 2003 (exception had won a group 2 & was having first start in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
0 of 10 winners had won at the course before (only 3 winners had run at the previous year's Festival)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Goldikova): 2 (0-1-1)
Horses that ran in previous year’s race: 7272500747232 (0-5-15)
Prix d'Ispahan winner (Goldikova): 8161 (2-0-4)
Lockinge winner (Canford Cliffs): 172472 (1-2-6)
Bet365 Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 7900212 (1-2-7)
Prix de la Foret winner (Goldikova): 21 (1-1-2)
Prix Rothschild winner (Goldikova): 21 (1-1-2)
Breeders Cup Mile winner (Goldikova): 61 (1-0-2)
Premio Vittorio Di Capua winner (Rio De La Plata): 10 (1-0-2)
Sussex Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 36 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time, finishing 148264
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 088
3 of 10 winners ran in previous St James Palace Stakes, finishing 352
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Sussex Stakes, finishing 323
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 901
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 6-9-36
Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 4-10-67

Trainers
British trained runners: 6-16-77
French trained runners: 2-2-10
Irish trained runners: 2-1-11 (both winners trained by A O’Brien)
Any other: 0-0-5
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-0-10) has won the race 3 times in the past 10 years, most recently in 2007.
Aidan O’Brien (2-0-9) has trained the winner in 2 of the last 5 years.
Richard Hannon (1-1-7) and Freddie Head (1-0-2) have saddled the last 2 winners of this race.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 3: 4-8-27
Horses drawn 4 to 6: 0-5-27
Horses drawn 7 to 9: 2-3-24
Horses drawn 10 or higher: 3-1-15
4 of the last 6 winners (at Ascot) were drawn 1 to 3.
Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-8-27
Horses drawn in middle: 0-6-39
Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 5-3-27
The last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls. Paco Boy , who was a fast finishing 2nd last year, was probably not helped by being drawn bang in the middle in stall 5.

Price
9 of 10 winners went off 7/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with all but one of the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however no favourite has won the race in the last 10 years.
Favourites (1-2-11) have gained just 1 win and 2 places since 2001, giving a level stakes profit of 7.63.

Summary:
Based on the trends from past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Won over 1M to 1M 1F
· Won a group 1
· Had 1 or 2 runs in 2011
· Run in the past 40 days
· Ran in the Lockinge or Prix D’Isphahan last time out
· First 3 in Prix de la Foret, James Palace or Sussex Stakes in 2010
· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien
· Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
· Price less than 7/1 (avoid the favourite)