IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2015

The Tote Irish Lincolnshire Handicap takes place the Curragh on Sunday 29th March and it marks the beginning of the flat season in Ireland. Generally run on testing ground, so previous winning form on soft ground is a plus.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-9-76
5yo: 3-9-58
6yo: 1-6-42
7yo: 0-2-23
8yo+: 2-3-19
7 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 though they represented 61.5% of total runners.
One winner aged 8+ had finished 2nd in previous years race and the other had won the English Lincolnshire 2 seasons previous.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-9-63
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 4-7-47
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-13-108
horses carrying 8-9 or higher have won 8 of last 10 from approximately just over 50% of the total runners.
Both winners to carry less than 8-9 were ridden by jockeys claiming at least 5lbs.
The last 3 runnings of the race on ground with heavy in description have been won by horses carrying 9-8 or higher.
Top weight: 94000003800 (0-2-11)

Official Ratings


horses rated 94 or higher: 4-11-66
horses rated 84 to 93: 6-14-83
horses rated 83 or lower: 0-4-69
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 84 to 102, though they represented 68.3% of total runners. The last 3 winners have been rated 97, 100 & 102.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners were having their first flat start of the year (2 exceptions had run once on Dundalk all-weather)
8 of 10 winners posted and RPR of 84+ on last turf start
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last turf start (3 exceptions unplaced in a race worth 13K+)
4 of 4 winners aged 4 had run in 2 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 1)
6 of 6 winners aged 5+ had run in at least 6 handicaps (5 of 6 have won 2 to 4)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 career flat wins
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M 2F
4 of 10 winners had won over this CD (2 others placed over the CD, 2 had finished in first 5 in group 3 over CD and 2 were having first run over CD)
9 of 10 winners had not won a race worth more than 15K


9 of 10 winners had won a race on ground softer than good

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Stuccodor): 95009 (0-0-5)
Record of placed finishers from previous year: 008012004 (1-2-9)
Live With The Dream Tote H'cap winner (Daredevil Day): 8 (0-0-1)
Naas Racecourse On Facebook Handicap winner (Vector Force): 0 (0-0-1)
Guiness Time H'cap winner (Hasanour): 0 (0-0-1)
Topaz Mile winner (Vastonea): 0 (0-0-1)
Record of placed finishers from Guinness Handicap (at Listowel): 01134 (2-2-5)
3 of 4 winners aged 4 had won their maiden over this CD as a 3yo
2 of 4 winners aged 4 had last start in a 1M handicap at Leopardstown November meeting, finishing 18
4 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 0030
3 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in Emirates Equestrian Federation H'cap, finishing 026
2 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in Ruby Stakes, finishing 26
2 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in Ahonoora Handicap, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in 1M 1F Guinness Handicap at Listowel, finishing 33

Trainers


Dermot Weld (2-1-13) has trained 2 of the last 10 winners, though has accounted for 6 favourites in past 10 years.
Tom Stack (1-3-9) has a good record, having gained 2 wins & 3 places from 10 runners since 2004.
Tommy Carmody (1-0-2) & Mick Halford (1-0-11) have also both trained a winner since 2004.
Ken Condon (0-2-5) & Jim Bolger (0-2-9) have both saddled 2 placed finishers since 2005.
Pat Shanahan (0-1-1) & Paddy Prendergast (0-1-4) trained the 2nd & 3rd last year.
British-trained runners (0-1-13) do not have a good record, gaining just 1 place from 13 runners, provided by Richard Fahey (0-1-6) in 2011.

Jockeys


Claimers (3-9-84) have ridden 3 winners in past 10 years, including 2 of last 5.
Johnny Murtagh rode 4 winners of this between 2003 and 2013, and was involved in training 2013 winner.
Wayne Lordan (1-3-10) rode the winner in 2004 & 2009 and has also ridden 3 other placed finishers in past 10 years, including runner-up last year.
Declan McDonogh (1-2-5) has gained a win and 2 places from last 5 rides in the race.

Draw


horses drawn in bottom half: 2-17-111
horses drawn in top half: 8-12-107
8 of 10 winners were drawn 14 or higher.

Price


No strong trends on prices, with 5 of the last 8 winners going off at 10/1 or shorter and the other 3 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 that won maiden over this CD & run in 2 or less handicaps or
- Aged 5+ that has run in 6 or more handicaps (winning 2 to 4)
- Carrying 8-9 or higher
- Officially rated 84 to 102
- Having first start of 2015 (or run once on all-weather)
- Finished in first 4 on last turf start (posting RPR of 84+)
- Previously gained 1 to 5 career wins
- Won over 1M to 1M 2F
- Never won a race worth more than £15K in Ireland
- Won on softer than good
- Won or placed over the CD (or having first run over the CD)
- Drawn in top half of the field (ideally 14 or higher)
- Run in 2014 Irish Cambridgeshire and/or Emirates Equestrian Federation H'cap
- Finished in first 3 in Ahonoora and/or Guinness Handicap in 2014
- Trained by Tom Stack, Johnny Murtagh or Dermot Weld
- Ridden by Wayne Lordan, Declan McDonogh or a claimer.