AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2015

The highlight for many of the national hunt calendar, the Crabbie’s Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 11th April. It’s always a fiercely competitive cavalry charge, you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 0-0-22
8yo: 0-6-59
9yo: 3-9-107
10yo: 4-7-104
11yo: 3-7-66
12yo: 0-1-28
13yo+: 0-0-11
Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12
10 of 10 winners have been aged 9 to 11 (10-23-277)
In the past 10 years all 39 of 40 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11
The last 2 horses aged older than 11 to make the places have been Amberleigh House (1st 2004) and Oscar Time (4th 2013), both were previously placed in the Grand National.
All 25 horses aged younger than 8 have been unplaced and only 1 of 39 horses aged 12+ have made the frame.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-3-36
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 5-7-89
horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-202
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-4-73
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6 have won 5 of 10 but represented just 22.25% of total runners.
2 of the 3 horses that managed to make the places carrying 11-7+ had won previous year’s race. The other was Royal Auclair, who finished 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup on previous start.
9 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights, exception Auroras Encore was allotted 9-13.
9 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Top Weight: P2900UF3FPU (0-2-11)

Official Ratings


horses rated 149 or higher: 3-10-107
horses rated 136 to 148: 7-19-271
horses rated 127 to 135: 0-1-22
In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners, with 20 of 24 places since 2009 going to horses rated 143+.
In last 6 years
horses rated 143 or higher: 5-15-161
horses rated 142 or lower: 1-3-79

Breeding


Irish bred: 7-22-235
French bred: 3-3-91
British bred: 0-5-67
Other: 0-0-7
Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges & Pineau De Re followed up the feat in 2012 & 2014.
Irish bred horses have won 7 of the last 10 and filled in 29 of 40 places (72.5%) from approximately 58.8% of the runners.
Old Vic has sired 23 National runners in 6 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-4-23. He has sired one of the first 3 home in 5 of last 7 renewals.



Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had run since National weights were announced
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+ and other had won the Ulster Grand National)
9 of 10 had won a chase worth 29K+
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since 1st September
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exception had won 11)
9 of 10 winners had contested 5 to 16 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers
The 2 second season chasers to have won this in past 10 years were Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice, and Pineau De Re, who won the Ulster Grand National as a novice
10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) had previously been officially rated 148 or higher
7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+ at a left handed track
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ in a chase over 3M 4F+ (exception Ballabriggs had not run over further than 3M 2F)
7 of 10 winners (all 3 Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March

Course form


Previous Year's winner (Pineau De Re): 0262036 (0-3-7)
Record of placed finishers from previous GN: CF0PF09UU49F0374UU02U (0-4-21)
Previous season's Becher Chase winner (Chance Du Roy): CF2B (0-1-4)
Becher Chase winner (Oscar Time): PPPFUPF6 (0-0-8)
4 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences
Only 1 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, last 2 winners that had previously won over the fences did so in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous.
3 of 10 winners had run in the previous season's Grand National, finishing FF0
4 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (3 in GN & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 2 exceptions finished in first 6 in Scottish National, 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Ulster Grand National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did not run in the previous season

Other Nationals


Previous season's Irish National winner (Shutthefrontdoor): 1FFFP0 (1-0-6)
Previous season's Scottish National winner (Al Co): 75 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from previous Scottish National: 7U16U1 (2-0-6)
Record of first 9 from previous Scottish National: P7PU415U811 (3-1-11)
Two season's previous Scottish National winner (Godsmejudge): PP (0-0-2)
Previous season's Welsh National winner (Mountainous): 0FF7 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 31P2
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing 962

Other Races


Previous season's Betfred TV H'cap Chase winner (Duke Of Lucca): 19R (1-0-3)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 1PUU6 (1-0-5)
Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Spring Heeled): F671FU (1-0-6)
Previous season's Eider winner (Wyck Hill): 42 (0-2-2)
Kim Muir Challenge Cup winner (The Package): 2 (0-1-1)
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner (Balthazar King): 02 (0-1-2)
Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sam Winner): F4 (0-1-2)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Court By Surprise): 20U (0-1-3)
Weatherbys Bank Graduation Chase winner (Shutthefrontdoor): 0P (0-0-2)
Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase winner (Guess Again): FU (0-0-2)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Broadway Buffalo): F6 (0-0-2)
Paddy Power Chase winner (Living Next Door): UU (0-0-2)
Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (Dolatulo): PB (0-0-2)
BetBright Chase winner (Rocky Creek): FFP (0-0-3)
BetBright on Mobile H'cap Chase winner (Mon Parrain): PFF0 (0-0-4)
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Kelso Totepool Premier Chase last time, finishing 25
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Pertemps Network H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing P3
2 of 7 British-trained winners (last 2) ran in previous year’s Summer Plate, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

Racing Tactics


5 of 10 winners raced prominently
3 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
2 of 10 winners were held up

Trainers


3 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (3-11-111) from approximately 27.8% of total runners. The last Irish-trained winner was in 2007.
Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:
Jonjo O’Neill (1-3-24), Paul Nicholls (1-3-34), Willie Mullins (1-2-23), David Pipe (1-1-23), Richard Newland (1-0-1), Sue Smith (1-0-6), Gordon Elliot (1-0-8), Venetia Williams (1-0-8) and Donald McCain (1-0-14).
Fergal O’Brien (0-1-1), Rebecca Curtis (0-1-3), Peter Bowen (0-1-9) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-11) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Nicky Henderson (0-0-12) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-24) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher in past 10 runnings from a combined 36 runners.



Price


In the past 8 years there have been some surprise winners, with two 33/1 winners in 2007 & 2012, a 100/1 winner in 2009, a 66/1 winner in 2013 and a 25/1 winner last year.
Favourites (3-5-17) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 9 to 11


- Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight


- Officially rated 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)


- Irish or French bred


- Respect horses sired by Old Vic


- Finished in first 3 on last completed start


- Posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start


- Won no more than one chase this season


- Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+


- Won over 3M+


- Run 3 to 6 times since September 2014 & run since 17th February 2015


- Run in at least 10 chases (winning at least 3)


- Posted highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)


- Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+


- Has run over hurdles in 2015


- Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National


- Finished in first 9 in 2014 Scottish National


- Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup


- Finished in first 5 in Totepool Premier Chase or Pertemps Network H’cap Hurdle last time.