CELEBRATION CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Bet365 Celebration Chase takes place on the undercard of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday, 26th April. The race is being run as a grade 1 for first time in the race’s history.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-2
6yo: 2-1-6
7yo: 2-3-16
8yo: 3-8-23
9yo+: 2-1-16
10yo+: 1-3-19
horses aged 5 to 8: 7-12-47
horses aged 9+: 3-4-35
Both winners aged 9 were Irish bred and the one 10yo winner was Cenkos, who had finished 1st & 2nd in previous 2 runnings.

Breeding
French Bred: 5-9-36
Irish Bred: 2-4-24
GB Bred: 2-2-16
German Bred: 1-1-4
NZ bred: 0-0-2
Since this race was inaugurated in 2001, 9 of 13 winners were either German or French bred
All 4 winners that were Irish or GB bred were 8 or 9.

Recent/Past Form
Only 2 of 10 winners won last time out (both were novice chasers)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 2 to 5 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase since August (2 exceptions were novices)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase (3 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a class 1 chase (exception unbeaten in 2 chase starts)
10 of 10 winners were rated 126+ over hurdles (7 of 10 [last 4] were rated 138+)

Other races
Previous year's winner (Sire De Grugy): 755346 (0-1-6)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Module): 213 (1-2-3)
Victor Chandler Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 132 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Maghull Novices' Chase winner (Special Tiara): 15 (1-0-2)
Tingle Creek winner (Sire De Grugy): 3 (0-1-1)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 2 (0-1-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Somersby): 28 (0-1-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 42U2F6
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 53UF
3 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 4P5
2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup, finishing U4
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Maghulls Nov chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-4-18) has trained the winner 4 times in past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-7) has saddled a winner and 3 places from 7 runners since 2004.
Gary Moore (1-0-2) saddled Sire De Grugy to win this last year.

Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter
8 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting but favourites have a poor record.
Favourites (1-5-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 7.75.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 to 8 (or Irish bred 9yo)
- German & French breds do well
- Ran in past 50 days
- Run 4 to 7 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start
- 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously finished in first 5 in a grade 1 chase
- Won a class 1 chase
- Rate 138+ over hurdles
- Ran in Queen Mother, Tingle Creek and/or Melling Chase
- Paul Nicholls does well in this
- Priced 9/1 or shorter.