CORONATION CUP TRENDS 2014

The Investec Coronation Cup takes place on the supporting card of Epsom Derby day on Saturday 1st June. It is a group 1 run over 1M 4F for horses aged 4 or older and, with a very decent prize on offer, it usually attracts some of the best middle distance horses in Europe. St Nicholas Abbey has won the last 3 renewals and this year’s race is being run in his memory.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:






Age
4yo: 4-7-37
5yo: 3-4-23
6yo: 3-2-12
7yo+: 0-1-3
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages.
4yo winners usually ran well in a European Derby the previous season (2 of the 4 winners aged 4 had won the Irish Derby, Yeats who won 2 Derby trials but a setback meant he missed the rest of the season and St Nicholas Abbey was favourite for the Derby before being pulled out due to injury).

Breeding


10 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
10 of 10 winners were by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Irish, French or German Derby’s
8 of last 9 winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells (Montjeu x 5, Sadler’s Wells x 2 & Galileo x 1)

Gender


Fillies and mares (0-6-12) last won the race in 1984 but have found 6 places from 12 runners in the past 10 years.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season


8 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group race last time (exceptions was 5th in Arc)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 121+ last time (3 others posted RPR of 110+)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+ (1 exception had yet to race over further than 1M 2F)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had won group 2)

Other Races (previous season)


Previous season's Oaks winner (Talent): 32 (0-2-2)
Curragh Cup winner (Ernest Hemmingway): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix du Lys winner (Flintshire): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Derby winner (Ruler Of The World): 6 (0-0-1)
Canadian International Stakes winner (Joshua Tree): 3 (0-0-1)
Grand Prix De Paris winner (Flintshire): 05 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 8) ran in last season's Prix De l'Arc, finishing 456650
4 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's King George, finishing 6533
4 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 1513
2 of 4 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 52
2 of 4 winners aged 4 won previous season's Irish Derby
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix Foy, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 23

Other Races (that season)


Middleton Stakes winner (Ambivalent): 22 (0-2-2)
3 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 521
3 of 10 winners ran in the Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 212
2 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Ormonde Stakes last time, finishing 31
2 of 4 winners aged 4 (last 2) ran in Alleged Stakes, finishing 33

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (7-2-16) has won 7 of the last 9 runnings of this race.
Andre Fabre (1-0-3) trained the winner in 2006.
Ed Dunlop (0-2-3) has trained the runner-up in 2006 & 2012 and the 3rd in 2013.

Price


10 of 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or below
This has not been a race to be looking for a longshot with the last 10 winners all going off single-figure odds, however it has not been a great race for favourites either.
Favourites (5-2-10) have just 5 of the last 10 (including the last 4) but still show a level stakes loss of 1.41 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sire won a group 1 over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (ideally by Montjeu)
- Has had a run in 2014
- Finished in first 3 in a group race last time
- Ran in Yorkshire Cup, Jockey Club, Mooresbridge or Ormonde Stakes last time
- Posted an RPR of 121+ last time
- Won a group 1 or 2 over 1M 4F+
- Ran in the Epsom and/or Irish Derby as a 3yo
- Finished in first 6 in 2013 Arc, King George and/or Breeders Cup Turf
- Finished in first 3 in the Sheema Classic and/or Alleged Stakes in 2014
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- Priced 8/1 or below (favourite won last 4).