BUNBURY CUP TRENDS 2014

The big betting handicap on the final day of Newmarket’s July meeting is the 666Bet Bunbury Cup. It is run over 7 furlongs for horses aged 3 or older and as always will be highly competitive affair. horses that tend to lead or race prominently have done well in this recently, while the Royal Hunt Cup has proven a good guide, with 6 of last 9 winners contesting it before coming here.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-6
4yo: 3-17-64
5yo: 2-7-51
6yo: 2-2-37
7yo+: 3-3-26
No strong trends on ages. All three winners aged 4 had posted an RPR of 101+ when finishing in first 3 in a class 2 or 3 handicap on their previous start.
horses aged 7+ appear to have a very good record, though 2 of their 3 wins were gained by Mine, who won it aged 7 & 8, but also won it as a 4yo.

Weights


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 5-7-55
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-13-94
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 1-10-41
horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-0-5
The weights for this race are so condensed that there is little to find in way of trends, 9 of last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more and horses carrying 9-7 or more have won 5 of last 10, including the last 2.



Official Ratings


horses rated 100 or more: 3-8-48
horses rated 90 to 99: 7-21-129
horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-7
Between 99 and 03 all 5 winners were rated 92 or less. Since 2004 all 10 winners have been rated 93 or above and in past 6 renewals all 29 places have been filled by horses rated at least 92.



Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that year


5 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (4 of 5 exceptions unplaced in a big Royal Ascot handicap)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time (exception posted RPR's of 106 & 100 on 2nd and 3rd last starts)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F
10 of 10 winners had previously won a handicap
8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level
Only 1 of 10 winners had won above class 2

Other Races


Previous year's winner (Field Of Dream): 0105 (1-0-4)
Record of horses placed in Victoria Cup: 300307040718105 (2-3-15)
1st Security Solutions Handicap winner (Ayaar): 1 (1-0-1)
Investec Mile winner (Abseil): 1 (1-0-1)
Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Louis The Pious): 300 (0-1-3)
Royal Hunt Cup winner (Field Of Dream): 0 (0-0-1)
Challenge Cup winner (Heaven's Guest): 99 (0-0-2)
Thirsk Hunt Cup winner (Fort Bastion): 07 (0-0-2)
Previous year's Betfred "The Bonus King" H'cap winner (Heaven's Guest): 00 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 083006
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln, finishing 7802
3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 742
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's International Stakes (H'cap), finishing 001
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in winnerevents.com Handicap, finishing 68
2 of 10 winners ran in the Investec Mile, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 06
2 of 10 winners ran in 1st Security Solutions Handicap, finishing 13

Trainers


Mark Johnston (1-2-5), Jamie Osbourne (1-1-2), the Richard Hannon yard (1-1-3) & Richard Fahey (1-0-8) have all been responsible for 1 winner in past 5 years.
Ed Dunlop (0-2-4) has seen 3 of his 6 runners finish runner-up since 2002 (all beaten a neck or less).
George Margarson (0-1-4) last trained the winner in 2001 and saddled the runner-up in 2011.
Ed Vaughan (0-1-2), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-3), David Barron (0-1-3), David Simcock (0-1-3) and James Fanshawe (0-1-5) have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2004.

Racing Style


7 of 10 winners led or chased leaders (2 of 3 exceptions were Mine’s 2nd and 3rd wins in this)

Draw


horses drawn in bottom 7 stalls: 4-8-70
horses drawn in middle: 0-8-45
horses drawn in top 7 stalls: 6-14-70
Tough to win from a middle draw with all 10 winners coming from top or bottom 7 stalls.

Price


No strong trends on prices though there has only one winner priced higher than 16/1 in the past 10 years.
Favourites (1-3-12) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Carrying 9-7+
- Officially rated 93+
- Won or placed last time out (or unplaced at Royal Ascot)
- Posted an RPR of 93+ last time out
- Ran in last 40 days
- Run 3 to 6 times in 2014
- Won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
- Won over 7F
- Ran in Lincoln and/or Royal Hunt Cup in 2014 or 2013 International Stakes
- Placed in Investec Mile, Victoria Cup and/or 1st Security Solutions Handicap
- Tends to lead or race prominently
- Drawn in bottom or top 7 stalls
- Trained by Ed Dunlop, Mark Johnston, Jamie Osbourne or Richard Hannon.