RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2015

The Ryanair Novice Chase takes place at Punchestown on Thursday 30th April. A grade 1 novice chase run over 2 miles, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Moscow Flyer, War Of Attrition and Big Zeb, and this year’s renewal could see Arkle winner, Un De Sceaux, reappear after his fantastic Cheltenham success.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 2-2-11
7yo: 3-7-31
8yo: 4-4-20
9yo: 1-0-8
No very strong trends on ages but 8yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 11 renewals.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-10-57
French bred: 1-2-8
British bred: 0-1-4
German bred: 0-0-3
American bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10 runnings, though they’ve represented 78.1% of total runners.
Since 2003 the 10 French bred runners have gained 2 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 exceptions unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
8 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase last time (1 exception won a grade b handicap chase at Fairyhouse Easter meeting & other was 2nd in a grade 2)
10 of 10 winners had had a layoff of over 2 weeks before this
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences (exception finished 2nd twice in 3 previous chase runs)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 10 winners were rated 130+ over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had previously fallen over fences
10 of 10 winners had first ever run in a bumper/hurdle or pt to pt
5 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (2 others placed here and other 3 were having first course start)

Other races
Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 21 (1-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from the Arkle: B211224124 (3-4-10)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): F5221 (1-2-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 12 (1-1-2)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Three Kingdoms): 1 (1-0-1)
Maghull Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 33 (0-2-2)
Irish Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 522P (0-2-4)
Killiney Mobile Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 53424 (0-1-5)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 4 (0-0-1)
Navanracecourse.ie Novice Chase winner (Jarry D'Honneur): 4 (0-0-1)
Kilbegnet EBF Novice Chase winner (Ted Veale): 4 (0-0-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Sizing Granite): 54 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 7F581P
3 of 4 winners that did not in the Arkle had their last start in a chase at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting, finishing in first 2.
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing F41
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Maghulls Novice Chase, finishing 26
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners (last 2) ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 4F
2 of 10 winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Lightning Novice Chase, finishing 14
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Pendil Novice Chase, finishing 12

Trainers
British based trainers (3-2-9) have won this race in 4 of the 7 times they’ve been represented since 2003.
Willie Mullins (2-2-10) trained the winner in 2009 & 2013 and saddled a placed finisher in 2010 & 2012.
Mouse Morris (1-0-4) trained War Of Attrition to win this in 2005.
Noel Meade (0-2-3) has saddled the runner-up 4 times since 2000.
Henry De Bromhead (0-2-4) saddled the third in 2013 & runner-up in 2014.
Alan King (0-1-2) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-4) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 2 runnings.

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Prior to God’s Own win at 25/1 in 2014, the previous 12 winners all went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of last 4 but show a level stakes loss of 3.88 since 2004.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish or French bred
- Made racecourse debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
- Finished in the first 3 last time in a grade 1 or unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls
- Posted an RPR of 144+ on last completed start
- Rated 130+ over hurdles
- Previously run in at least 3 chases
- Won 1 to 4 chases
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Ran in the Arkle at Cheltenham (or finished in first 2 in a graded chase at Fairyhouse)
- First 2 in Powers Gold Cup, Maghull and/or November Novice Chase
- Ran in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- Trained in Britain (& ran in Lightning and/or Pendil Novice Chase)
- From the first 4 in the betting (6/1 or shorter)