JOHN SMITH'S CUP TRENDS 2014

The John Smith’s Cup is one of the big Northern handicaps of the season and it takes place at York on Saturday 12th July. The race is run over a mile, two furlongs and 88 yards and is such a highly competitive affair that it appears that a jockey’s claim can be the difference between winning and losing. 6 of the last 8 winners of this race have been ridden by claimers.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-0-6
4yo: 7-19-88
5yo: 2-5-45
6yo+: 0-6-48
horses aged 3 or 4: 8-19-94
horses aged 5+: 2-11-93
7 of 10 winners were aged 4, 2 exceptions were 5yos, one of whom was a close 2nd the previous year, while the only 3yo winner in past 10 years was Wigmore Hall, a subsequent group 1 winner.

Weights


horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-1-18
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 1-13-62
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 7-13-91
horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-3-16
The last 8 winners carried less than 9-0


horses carrying a penalty: 1-3-21
Top Weight: 4000000820200 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings


horses rated 102 or more: 1-5-29
horses rated 90 to 101: 9-19-135
horses rated 89 or less: 0-6-23
9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 90 and 101 from 70.2% of the total runners. Only horse rated above 101 to win this since 2004 was Fly Clarets in 2008, who had finished 2nd the previous year and won under a 5lb penalty.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had had 1 to 4 turf starts that season
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 2 starts (exception had finished 2nd in 2 of 4 runs that season)
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 96+ in last 3 starts


9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out


9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (3 exceptions had been placed on 50% or more of their runs that year)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M 1F & was having first try at this trip)
6 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a class 2 or higher handicap and other had won last 4 starts but yet to run higher than class 4)

Other Races


Investec Wealth Handicap winner (Farraaj): 4 (0-1-1)
Kilkerran Cup winner (Hi There): 3 (0-1-1)
Bathwick Tyres Handicap winner (Hi There): 93 (0-1-2)
IG H'cap winner (Tres Coronas): 03 (0-1-2)
Crabbies Original H'cap winner (Running Deer): 00 (0-0-2) Ches 9 Jun 1m21/2f
Bet365.com Handicap winner (Llanarmon Lad): 05 (0-0-2)
Stanjames.com Stakes H'cap winner (Clever Cookie): 000 (0-0-3)
Suburban Handicap winner (Sennockian Star): 000 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in IG Handicap at Chester, finishing 042
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wolferton last time out, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Suffolk Stakes finishing 12
2 of 2 Richard Fahey-trained winners ran in New Betting Hall Handicap, finishing 11

Trainers


Richard Fahey (2-4-29) has won the race three times since 2002.
William Haggas (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2011 and saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
David Barron (1-1-6) & Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-1) has both won this in past 5 years.
Michael Stoute (0-4-7) has seen 4 of his 7 runners since 2004 make the places.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-7), Mark Johnston (0-1-10) & Brian Ellison (0-0-9) have gained just 2 places from 26 combined runners since 2004.

Jockeys


Claimers: 6-1-38
Non-claiming jockeys: 4-29-149
6 of last 8 winners have all been ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance.
If we restrict the search to claimers riding horses priced 16/1 or shorter, their record becomes an impressive 6-1-18.

Draw


horses drawn 1-10: 2-20-100
horses drawn 11 or higher: 8-10-87
8 of 10 winners (including last 6) were drawn 12 or higher

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners were held up
2 of 10 winners tracked leaders
1 of 10 winners made all

Price


No major trend to be seen from the prices. 4 of 10 winners were priced between 5/2 and 7/1, the other 6 were sent off between 10/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (2-4-14) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.50. Since 2002, 9 of 11 beaten favourites had registered a top 4 finish at Royal Ascot.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4
- Carrying less than 9-0
- Officially rated 90 to 101
- Had 1 to 4 turf starts in 2014
- Finished 1st or 2nd on one of last two starts
- Posted a career higher RPR of 96+ in last 3 starts
- Won a race this season (or placed on over half their starts)
- Won at class 2 or 3 level
- Won over 1M 1F to 1M 2F
- Finished in first 4 in Wolferton and/or Suffolk Stakes
- Tends to be held up
- Drawn 12 or higher
- Ridden by a claimer (and priced 16/1 or shorter)
- Trained by Richard Fahey or William Haggas.