SCILLY ISLES NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2015

The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novice Chase takes placed on Saturday, 31st January. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 4½F. The race should provide some good pointers to the JLT Novice Chase at Cheltenham.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-5
6yo: 2-2-15
7yo: 6-1-20
8yo: 0-4-7
9yo: 1-0-2
10yo: 0-0-2
7yos have won 6 of the last 10 from 39.2% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception won grade 2 on only start)
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (exception was 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 148+ last time
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 144+ in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1 1/2F+ (7 of 10 had won over 2M 4F+)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over fences (exception won grade 2 on only chase start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a chase (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
8 of 10 winners (last 5) had finished 1st or 2nd in grade 1 or 2 chase
5 of last 7 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
4 of 9 winners at Sandown were previous course winners (3 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start)

Other races


Ryman Stationer Novice Chase winner (Champagne West): 71 (1-0-2)
Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novice Chase winner (Splash Of Ginge): 5 (0-0-1)
Record of 1st & 2nd from Dipper Novice Chase: 1111 (4-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in Dipper Novice Chase last time, finishing 2221
3 of 10 winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing R2
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryman Stationer Novice Chase, finishing F1
2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tolworth Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Top Novice Hurdle, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 2P
6 of 10 winners contested a hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) saddled 4 consecutive winners between 2006 & 2009.
Nicky Henderson (3-2-8) has trained 3 of last 5 winners.
Alan King (1-0-5) trained Medermit to win this in 2011.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-3) has gained 2 seconds and a third from his 3 runners since 2005.

Price


10 of 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter
All 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, with the favourite winning 7 of last 8.
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.10.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- 7yos do well
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (posting an RPR of 148+)
- Posted an RPR of 144+ in one or both last 2 chase starts
- Has won over 2M 2F+
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (winning at least once or placed in a grade 1)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Previous course winner (or having first run here)
- Has won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in the Dipper and/or Berkshire Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Henry VIII, Steel Plate & Sections and/or Ryman Stationer Novice Chase
- Ran in a hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- Price 4/1 or shorter (favourite does well).