PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC TRENDS 2014

The Prix Marcel Boussac is one of the premier 2yo fillies races run in Europe each year. Run over a mile, it is one of several group 1’s that make up the undercard of the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe card at Longchamp on the 5th October. It has been by some of the best fillies of the past 15 years, including Six Perfections, Finsceal Beo, Divine Proportions & Zarkava.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yo fillies

Breeding


3 of last 8 winners were by a son of Gone West
2 of last 8 winners were by a son of Sadler’s Wells

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners broke their maidens in first 2 starts
8 of 10 winners won last time out
8 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time
8 of 10 winners ran 2 to 5 times (2 exceptions won maiden on only start)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 1M (last 7 had won over 7F to 1M)
3 of 10 winners had won over this CD (other 7 having first run at Longchamp)
4 of 10 winners had won a group race (6 exceptions had yet to run in group company)
3 of 3 Irish-trained runners had last start at the Curragh
5 of 6 French-trained runners had their last start at Longchamp or Chantilly


In the past 20 years there have been 12 runnings of the Marcel Boussac which featured a horse that had won their maiden over the CD in September, in 6 of those 12 years the race was won by such a horse.

Other Races


Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Cursory Glance): 101 (2-0-3)
Prix du Calvados winner (Queen Bee): 0234187 (1-2-7)
Prix de la Cascade winner (Alea Iacta): 19450 (1-0-5)
Prix des Marettes winner (Moonee Valley): 3 (0-1-1)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Jack Naylor): 06 (0-0-2)
2 of 3 Irish trained runners ran in Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 3 Irish trained runners ran in Moyglare Stud Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 6 French-trained winners ran in Prix de la Mare aux Oiseaux, finishing 12

Trainers


French-trained runners: 6-12-62
Irish-trained runners: 3-2-16
British-trained runners: 1-5-29
German-trained runners: 0-0-3
Alain de Royer-Dupre (2-0-4) & Aidan O’Brien (2-0-6) have both saddled 2 winners since 2004.
Pascal Bary (1-1-3) saddled 3 consecutive winners from 2002 to 2004.
Jim Bolger (1-0-3) won this in 2006 with Finsceal Beo.
Jean-Claude Rouget (0-3-3) has seen his 3 runners in last 10 years all get placed.
Andre Fabre (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners get placed.

Price


7 of 10 winners were sent off 6/1 or shorter
The 3 upsets came in 2006, 2008 & 2013 with winners at 16/1 to 20/1.
Backing the favourite (4-3-10) shows a level stakes loss of 2.27 since 2004.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a son of Gone West or Sadler’s Wells (ideally finished in first 2 in group 1 as 2yo)
- Had 2 to 5 career starts (or won only run to date)
- Won last time out
- Posted career high RPR last time
- Won over 7F to 1M
- CD winner (or having first run at Longchamp)
- Previously won a group race (or won maiden last time)
- Irish-trained runner that ran at Curragh last time (ideally in Moyglare Stud)
- French-trained runner that ran at Longchamp or Chantilly last time
- Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, Jean Claude Rouget, Pascal Bary or Aidan O’Brien.