GREENLANDS STAKES TRENDS 2014

The Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes is a group 3 sprint over 6F, which takes place at the Curragh on Saturday, 24th May, on the undercard of the Irish 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by British sprinters in recent times, winning 8 of the last 10 (including the last 5).

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 0-2-25
4yo: 3-7-23
5yo: 2-3-15
6yo: 3-3-16
7yo+: 2-4-22
The 2 Irish-trained winners have been aged 4
Irish trained runners aged 3 or 4: 2-7-43
Irish-trained runners aged 5+: 0-4-29
British trained runners aged 3 or 4: 1-2-5
British-trained runners aged 5+: 7-6-24

Gender


Fillies & mares (1-3-22) have won just 1 of the last 10 from just 21.8% of total runners.

Weight


From 1st May 2013, winners of a group 3 receive a 4lb penalty and winners of a group 1 or 2 received a 5lb penalty:
horses carrying a group 1 or 2 penalty: 6251412010 (3-2-10)
horses carrying a group 3 penalty: 533201523586480 (1-4-15)
4 of last 7 winners were carrying a penalty.

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
6 of last 8 winners ran in group 1 or 2 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 104+ in last 2 outings
7 of 10 winners had run once or twice that year
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
All 8 British-trained winners had had 15+ career starts
2 of 2 Irish-trained runners had 9 to 14 career starts
6 of 10 winners had won or placed at Curragh (4 others making course debut)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had won over 5F & been beaten a neck in a 6F listed race)
9 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (exception won previous year's Great St Wilfrid & had run just once in class 1 company)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 18K+

Other Races


Duke Of York Stakes winner (Maarek): 611 (2-0-3)
Woodlands Stakes winner (Guerre): 2359 (0-2-4)
Sapphire Stakes winner (Slade Power): 3 (0-1-1)
Minstrel Stakes winner (Darwin): 2 (0-1-1)
Phoenix Sprint Stakes winner (Slade Power): 255 (0-1-3)
Cork Stakes winner (An Saighdiur): 3903 (0-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from the Duke Of York Stakes: 261241210 (3-3-9)
Highest placed finisher from the Cammidge Stakes: 567121 (2-1-6)
4 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Duke Of York Stakes last time, finishing 0141
3 of 8 British-trained winners (3 of last 4) ran in Stewards Cup, finishing 400
3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Cammidge Trophy, finishing 344
3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Sprint Cup, finishing 309
3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 224
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Nunthorpe Stakes, finishing 00
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Great St Wilfrid H'cap, finishing 16
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Abernant Stakes, finishing 70
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Queensferry Stakes, finishing 63
Since 2002 - 2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in EBF Bol Lad Sprint Handicap at Curragh in Sept, finishing 32
Since 2002 - 2 of 4 Irish-trained winners made seasonal debut in The Irish Field Handicap, finishing 34

Trainers


British-trained runners (8-8-29) have won 8 of last 10 (including last 5) from just 28.7% of total runners. 16 of their 29 representatives made the places.
Aidan O’Brien (1-4-14) has saddled a winner and 4 places from 14 runners, all 5 to make frame were aged 3 or 4.
Kevin Ryan (1-1-3) saddled Tiddliwinks to finish 2nd in 2012 and 1st in 2011.
Eddie Lynam (0-1-2) saddled Slade Power to finish 3rd last year.

Draw (excluding 2006, when less than 8 runners)
horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 5-10-36
horses drawn in middle: 2-2-23
horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 2-6-36
horses drawn in the highest 5 stalls have won 8 of last 11 runnings with 8+ runners.

Price


The last 8 were sent off 8/1 or shorter
Favourites (2-4-10) have won 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 3.67 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- horses carrying a penalty do well
- Finished in first 4 last time (ideally in a group 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 104+ in 1 or both of last 2 start
- Run once or twice in 2014
- Has won over 6F
- Won a listed or group race
- Previously won or placed at the Curragh (or having first course start)
- Won a sprint worth 18K+
- Ran in Stewards Cup, Great St Wilfrid, Haydock Sprint Cup and/or this race in 2013
- Finished in first 4 in Duke Of York and/or Cammidge Trophy in 2014
- Trained in Great Britain (and run at least 15 times before)
- Drawn in highest 5 stalls
- Sent off 8/1 or shorter.