TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2015

The Boylesports Tied Cottage Chase is a 2 mile grade 2 Chase for 5 year olds and upwards and takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 1st February. This race was first run in 1999 as a novice chase but was made into its present incarnation in 2003. It was won twice by Moscow Flyer, who went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his next start on both occasions and it has also been the prep race for the past 2 Irish Queen Mother winners, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 1-1-5
8yo: 1-0-11
9yo: 4-4-20
10yo: 2-2-8
11yo+: 2-1-8
No real trend to go on with ages of winners being fairly evenly spread out.
Both winners aged 11 had won a previous renewal.

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners won last time out


7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in one of their last two completed chase starts (3 exceptions posted an RPR of 166+ last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
7 of 10 runners had run in the past 40 days (3 exceptions ran in the Tingle Creek last time out)
10 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 22 chases
9 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously won at Punchestown
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1

Other Races


Fortria Chase winner (Twinlight): 1112122 (4-2-7)
PP Dial A Bet Chase winner (Twinlight):1F2221 (2-2-6)
Paddy Power Your Local Betting Shop Chase winner (Days Hotel): 1 (1-0-1)
Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 4 (0-0-1)
The Malton Chase winner (Baily Green): 3 (0-0-1)
7 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother, finishing U6PF612
7 of 10 winners ran in previous Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 1523121
6 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 314213
6 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 111312
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tied Cottage, finishing F231
4 of 10 winners ran in the Normans Grove Chase last time, finishing 4111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 141
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Dan Moore Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing 331
2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Arkle, finishing PF
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Clonmel Oil Chase, finishing 11

Trainers


Willie Mullins (2-1-6) trained Golden Silver to win this in 2011 & Arvika Ligeonniere to take last year.
Henry De Bromhead (2-0-5) trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2012 & 2013.
The Sandra Hughes yard (1-1-2) had Central House finish 1st & 2nd in this.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced 7/2 or below
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting and the only exception was in 2007 when the favourite was brought down.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 runnings, though show a level stakes loss of 2.61.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Has last run in the past 40 days (ideally winning)
- Posted career high RPR of 156+ in last 2 chase starts (or posted RPR of 166+ last time)
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- Run in 9 to 22 chases
- Won a grade 1 chase (ideally multiple grade 1’s)
- Ran in 2014 Queen Mother and/or Punchestown Champion Chase
- First 3 in Fortria, Tingle Creek and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase this season
- Won the Normans Grove, Gowran Park Champion and/or Clonmel Oil Chase
- First 3 in Tied Cottage and/or Dan Moore H’cap last season
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Henry De Bromhead
- Priced 7/2 or lower.