WELSH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2014

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Saturday 27th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina and previous winning course form is a big plus.





Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:



Age (for age purposes, assume 2010-11 & 2012-13 renewals were run in 2010 & 2012)
5yo: 0-1-3
6yo: 2-4-19
7yo: 5-3-46
8yo: 3-11-46
9yo: 0-6-38
10yo: 0-4-27
11yo+: 0-1-12
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8
horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-8-68, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 3-22-123.
horses aged 9+ have failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years.

Breeding


French bred: 5-10-46
Irish bred: 4-14-98
GB bred: 1-6-38
USA bred: 0-0-2
French breds have won 5 of last 10 and filled 15 of 40 places from less than 25% of the total runners

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-58
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-120
No very strong trend on weights, though last 3 winners carried 10-0 or 10-1.
Top weight: F3P2377F73 (0-4-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 143 or higher: 3-12-58
horses rated 142 or lower: 7-18-126
6 of last 10 winners (including last 3) were officially rated 137 or lower

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (5 won)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (3 exceptions were having their first course start)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases prior to this
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exceptions was a 4th season chaser that had previously finished 3rd in this)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase)
5 of 10 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs

Other races


Previous year's winner (Mountaineous): 572UP (0-1-5)
Coral Welsh Grand National Trial Handicap Chase winner (Rebeccas Choice): 31U (1-1-3)
Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): P42P (0-2-4)
4M NH Novice Chase (Midnight Prayer): 2 (0-1-1)
Betfair Home Of Price Rush Handicap Chase winner (Gas Line Boy): 3 (0-1-1)
Rundle And Co Handicap Chase winner (Rebeccas Choice): PP (0-0-2)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 0U7PP (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 41P
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Towtown Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh National Trial last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Harwell Trophy, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Newbury Pertemps Qualifier H'cap Hurdle, finishing 27
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start)
4 of 7 second season chaser winners had won a Chepstow novice chase over 3M+ the previous season

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-7-21) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 10 years, also saddled the 2nd & 3rd in 2013.
Richard Lee (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2011 & 2013.
Alan King (1-3-9) has saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) has also won the race in the past 10 years.
Evan Williams (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his last 3 runners get placed.
Irish trained runners (1-1-10) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

Racing Tactics


8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in midfield

Price


5 of last 6 winners were priced between 10/1 & 20/1.
The favourite (1-3-11) has won just 1 of last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8
- French bred horses do well
- Officially rated 137 or lower
- Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
- Had 1 or 2 runs this season
- Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Won over 3M or further
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+
- Second or third season chaser
- Finished in first 4 in Midlands National, Haydock Grand National Trial and/or Classic Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Welsh National Trial, Harwell Trophy and/or Towtown Novice Chase
- First 6 in a previous Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Richard Lee, Alan King or Evan Williams
- Tends to race prominently.