GREAT VOLTIGEUR TRENDS 2014

The Neptune Investments Great Voltigeur Stakes takes place on Wednesday, 20th August, on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting. A group 2, run over a mile and a half for 3yos only, it is generally considered as one of the best trials for the final classic of the year, the St Leger, with Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno all pulling off the double since 2000.

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 renewals at York (2003-2013):

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 9.9F+
8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (2 exceptions were by Dynaformer, multiple graded winner in USA)

Weight


horses who have won a group 2 race in 2014 receive a 3lb penalty. Since 2003 nine runners have run under this 3lb penalty and all 9 have been beaten with just 2 making the places.
The prices of the 9 runners to attempt to carry a penalty have been 5/2, 11/4, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 4/1, 9/2, 8/1 & 12/1.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time


9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ last time (exception won maiden on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a listed or group race (2 exceptions were trained by Michael Stoute, both run once and won once that season)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (4 of 5 others yet to run in group 1)
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 71281132 (3-3-8)
Highest placed finisher from Dante: 12133 (2-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Irish Derby: 21539236 (1-4-8)
Highest placed finisher from Racing Post Trophy: 2483 (0-2-4)
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII: 65893545 (0-0-8)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Hartnell): 1 (1-0-1)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Observational): 6961 (1-0-4)
Gordon Stakes winner (Snow Sky): 227546 (0-2-6)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 2 (0-1-1)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Snow Sky): 42 (0-1-2)
King Edward VII winner (Eagle Top): 689355 (0-1-6)
Glasgow Stakes winner (Postponed): 96 (0-0-2)
Queen's Vase winner (Hartnell): 6555 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 2434
3 of 10 winners ran in the King Edward VII, finishing 924
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in Fairway Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers


Michael Stoute (3-1-10) trained the winner three times since 2003, his 3 winners had run once or twice that season, winning 1 race, below class 1 level.
John Gosden (2-0-5) trained the winner in 2007 & 2012 and also the winner of the rearranged race at Goodwood in 2008.
Aidan O’Brien (1-8-16) trained the winner in 2001 & 2003 and has saddled a placed finisher in last 3 renewals he’s had a representative. Record of his first string reads 13362232 (1-4-8).
Roger Charlton (0-1-1) has saddled 1 runner in this, 2nd in 2011.
Mark Johnston (0-0-9) trained the winner in 2002 but has seen his last 9 runners finish unplaced.

Price


7 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting


The 3 winners since 2002 to go off bigger than 6/1 were Youmzain in 2006 at 12/1, Monitor Closely in 2009 at 28/1 & Thought Worthy at 9/1 in 2012.
Favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings at York but show a level stakes loss of 2.87.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by group 1-winner with a stamina index of 9.9f+
- Not carrying a group 1 or 2 penalty
- Finished in the first 3 last time out, posting an RPR of 109+
- Won over 1M 2F+ (or placed at group level over 1M 2F+)
- Finished in first 3 in a group race
- Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby to run in this does well
- Finished in first 4 in Dante, Irish Derby and/or King Edward VII
- Trained by John Gosden or Michael Stoute.